gfp: I understand your arguments. I know the Fed and the other Central Banks are behind almost the entire stock market rally since 2008. I also know that those same Central Banks have colluded to depress the prices of Precious Metals. Lawsuits abound against international banks that have been complicit in this. Still and all, the Central Banks are pushing on a string. Since 2008 in the S&P we see that 46% of the all the gains have come from just 10 stocks. We see the insider selling to insider buying ratio at the nose bleed territory of 11:1....We see banks in Canada are start to have their "sub-prime" mortgage loan problems. Puerto Rico in bankruptcy. And lots of Institutional investors have PR Bonds in their portfolios. We don't know what the blowback on that is going to be yet. Hartford Connecticut, the capital of one of the highest taxing states in America, is poised for bankruptcy. (I love the irony of that...they taxed General Electric out of the state, taxed many hedge funds which drove them to Florida, and lost thousands of rich and upper middle class households who relocated for tax purposes. So the answer for Connecticut politicians will be to raise taxes yet again.) Pensions are underfunded. There is far too much debt, public and private. And there are many more potential headwinds. And these are just the known problems. It will be a black swan event that triggers the avalanche. What I see happening is that the market will desperately try clinging to the current levels. But I think that runs out of gas at some point. When the market breaks down I think it is going to go down hard and fast for a limited time. Say a 10-15% drop over 5 trading days. Then an attempt to resurrect the market with a snap back rally that eventually fails. Then we'll finally begin the stair step decline we are so overdue for.
After just a few trading days both of my LEAP Calls on AG and NGD are within $1.00 of their strike prices. Precious metals did well to end the week. I hope it keeps up. It will be interesting to see what this worldwide malware attack will have on the international markets.
