We go ex-distribution on Thursday of next week. On that morning we'll find 38 cents has been removed from the prior day's valuation.
Thus we have three days ahead of us, days that hold strong potential for unusual gains being tacked on to ALDW units.
We saw 51.2 cents added to units this week PER DAY! Were this to continue as we head towards going ex, then we should expect a further rise by Wednesday's close in the amount of $1.54. That would have us at $12.87/unit.
But I'm not seeing that happen. This is just a wild guess but I'm thinking that Monday we'll tack on another 20¢ with similar action on Tuesday. Wednesday may be rocky as folks decide they want to take some gains off the table. But at the end of Wednesday trading I think units will add another dime or so as investors scarf up the last chance to grab 38¢ per unit.
So it appears that my brain sees us continuing to add value here but at a 1/3 pace compared to what we've seen this week.
The big question is this:
Where do we go from here? I know I'm not going anywhere. ALDW is showing a very high yield going into the three better quarters of their fiscal year. The crack spread is becoming more favorable and gas is cheap at the pump at a time of year when folks are anxious to drive more, using gas.
What's not to like? If they can pay us 38¢ for the weakest quarter of the year, then I should think 80¢ is a distinct possibility come quarter #2. That means we're on the receiving end of an extremely healthy yield.
As I see it, units remain on my strong buy list.
