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Thursday, May 04, 2017 8:09:59 PM
regression to the mean is just a statistical theory. If michael jordan scores 60 points in a game what are the chances that he scores 60 points in the next game. same basketball, same hoop, same teammates. are you going to bet that he scores 60 again or is he more likely to regress back to his career average of 28? What if P2, just by chance, was a 60 point game? Are we likely to repeat the 60 point game in P3? of course we have no way of knowing if P2 was a 60 point game and their in lies the risk. Im paraphrasing but didn't Glickman say the P2 results were unbelievable or amazing or something like that. Sounds like something one would say after jordan scores 60 points "that was amazing"
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