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Monday, August 11, 2003 12:52:35 AM
Sorry to hear about your position. I wouldn't call it foolish, many were betting that this would go into the 30's if I remember.
Let's see what we have. 4 down weeks in a row. The big hurt coming from the center two. Your right on the daily about the RSI being oversold. But the reasoning for it is also sound, namely the Nokia release. Many were loading up trying to time the start of the Nokia payments. Under the best light this will likely be delayed for some time. And you can see the result, Over 60 million shares in 60 days traded. Clearly people wanted to get out, a little fear to be sure but I would think the higher percentage were investors, big and small, who were just taking their shot and missed. And in my opinion only many of those won't be back for awhile. I think a lot more facts will have to get in the open before they do.Again IMO
We really haven't been oversold on the weekly for a long time however.{ she bounces pretty good} Included a weekly chart for support. On the bright side the selling and the decrease of price have slowed. Regarding chances, there maybe something released during the CC that could cause a reversal, they could also release something in the near future that could cause a pop. If either happens it could provide what you're looking for. I don't think , on it's own and/or just because of a sell off{with the reason given} that we will go 17+ for a while here.
If you get a chance switch to a 3 year monthly scale and notice what happens during the May's of 01,02,03 in regards to direction. You can also look at the comparison during the same time frames for Nok, Qcom, telecom sector or the Nas.
Anyway . The downside is still the market. Clearly running out of steam here, I think further falling of the markets in general is likely and IMO will have an effect on any near term run IDCC may have in store. If somebody said we would bottom in late Sept of OCT I wouldn't call them a liar.
Also including 2 charts for support of my thoughts and that I use to get a feel for the flow, so to speak. They work pretty well for smoothing out the direction overall.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAA50R,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPNYA,uu[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=IDCC,uu[h,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,...
And hey GOOD LUCK to you.
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