Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis
By Martin Armstrong | April 29, 2017

Analysis for the Week of May 1, 2017

We should see a trend change come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 119450 and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline. As of the close of Fri. Apr. 28, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 126830 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the key low made on Wed. Apr. 26, 2017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 17th at 129740, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of April 24th, which has been a move of 1.50% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 3 months.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 112430 electing one buy signal from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 125570 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.



Rationally, my comprehensive outlook recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.

To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011. To date, we have seen a 3 month reaction from the December 2016 low in NY Gold Nearest Futures. Caution is required for we must continue a rally beyond this month to extend the upward movement or we will resume a retest of support. A monthly closing below 119450 would technically warn of a resumption of the downtrend.

On the subject of the immediate trend remains bullish since March made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is suggesting to pay close attention since last month had closed lower so the downward momentum has subsided and we may have a near term shift in trend. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 4/24 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend.

While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 weeks. The last weekly level low was 112430, which formed during the week of December 12th, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 129740, which was created during the week of April 17th. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 15 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 126490, which was created during February. However, we still remain below key resistance 133830 on a closing basis.

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