NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[abeta]

flipper - I am not sure I follow - so lets go SLOW for me .....

My Assumptions:

(a) Right Now - 110 Alive

(b) Target - 98 Alive

(c) March 20th 2017 - the 98 ALIVE I developed in March 2017 will be
the SAME 98 ALIVE in June or July or August or Sept or whatever

THEY DO NOT CHANGE

(d) What does change is the END OS EVENT DATE -

(e) The (c) above determined that MEDIAN OS was 44 months -
based on

(1) dispersing 98 alive across a 331 population

(2) calculating the MONTHS IN TRIAL for ALL 331 based on the
following -

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (June 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

(3) locating the 49th ALIVE person amoung the 98 defined in (1)

See Chart below

(f) Now what this all means (c) thru (f) is the following

this equation will change depending on when we hit 233 events

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (June 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

Median OS = 44 Months

OR

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (JuLY 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

Median OS = 45 Months

OR

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (August 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

Median OS = 46 Months

OR

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (September 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

Median OS = 47 Months

Please see the following and do the following -

(1) Find Column T - that NUMBERS the 98 ALIVE from 1 to 98

(2) Walk down Column T - until you hit #49

That patient is the MEDIAN PATIENT

(3) Look in Column S -

that 44 number represents this Excel formula -

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (June 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

THAT NUMBER 44 IS THE MEDIAN OS of the 49th patient

(4) As a consequence of all I have written -

there is NO NEED to recalculate a Median spreadsheet for each
possible monthly outcome -

For each month that we go past June - add 1 additional month
to the MEDIAN OS of 44 months that was applicable to the 49th
identified ALIVE person ... whose MEDIAN OS was calculated by

MONTHS IN TRIAL = MONTHS BETWEEN (June 1, 2017 - ENTRY DATE MONTH/YEAR)

I am sorry - but I am very certain in my logic about this -

** the 98 were identified and do not change

** the time in trial for 98 was based on the diff between their
entry date and June 1, 2017

** Whatever the results were at June 1, 2017 for each of the 98 alive
records - just add 1 month if we go to July 1, 2017 etc

** It goes without saying that it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to identify
THE TRUE 98 ALIVE - but having played with this enough - I know I am
in the ballpark in that 2 others have suggested different distributions
of 98 ALIVE so as to make a worse outcome - but they could not
screw with these good results (44 months) for a reason they could
not envision - WE HAVE TOO MANY ALIVE 98 ACROSS A VERY LIMITED
RECORDSET OF 331 - so of course the median is gonna be high

anyway - if my post is like MUD or SHIT - yell back and I will
try to answer better ....

Remember - we are in Excel - AND WE CAN ANALYZE ANYTHING
WE WANT - in a relatively short amount of time

regards




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