NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[kabunushi]

ARGS management discusses their trial result and admits that they made a big mistake with including fixed quitting points (for inefficacy) in their IAs. Their IDMC had its hands tied and had to recommend stopping 3/4 of the way through. The analysts were skeptical that the trial could turn failure into success by letting the data mature longer, but management strongly emphasized what we have heard elsewhere, especially from LL but also from many others, that you may have to go out beyond 2 years to start to see the treatment OS curve outperform SOC. The longer you wait to unblind that data, the more of a divergence you will see, if the IO treatment is working. IO is not a miracle that can cure everybody, but its clearest benefit has sometimes been seen in increased survival starting at 2 years out. Hence ARGS reiterates the lesson that waiting longer before unblinding is better, and that it's very foolish to complain that NWBO didn't stop the trial at the PFS endpoint. Even if the PFS data is good, the most convincing benefit, if there is one, is almost certain to be seen in OS data beyond 2 years survival. I am very impatient as we keep needing to raise money at low prices, maybe only because the ph 3 trial data is still blinded. But ph 3 is the whole ball of wax, it's likely all or nothing for current investors. We really need to wait as long as it takes and only stop the trial early if there is no way to raise more money without showing the data. Even with still more dilution, the shares will be worth a lot more if the trial succeeds and not worth very much if the ph 3 trial does not (short of major new developments like getting a partnership which doesn't seem very likely to happen before the ph 3 data is revealed).