Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[VuBru]

Chas - Good points.

When an early stop depends on sufficiently high estimates of multiple endpoints, the odds change dramatically. With three endpoints, for example, the odds of the estimate of at least one being significantly low go from 40% for a single endpoint to about 80% (100 x (1 - .6^3) = 78.4). That is, from probably no problem, to very likely a problem.

We know from the design paper that the "key SEs" are the individual MACE components. So, in your calculations above, the multiple endpoints are not independent, which would probably reduce the odds somewhat.