AI
Sunday, April 16, 2017 9:20:12 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/12 2017 EOD
Yesterday's summary included { That leaves my best case scenario, but not most likely case, being we start going sideways on reducing volume quite soon. I think the most likely case is that we quickly begin seeing price deterioration and begin a leg lower, probably to challenge the former resistances (now supports) that we just broke through. Sans more PRs that trigger volume/price alerts to the fast-money crowd, I don't see them all holding. $0.82/3 was relatively untested and I think will not offer much support, if any. }
That's the case - today $0.82/3 did not hold, we have apparently begun a leg down, we tested $0.80, which held for the first day, and all indications now are for near-term further weakening, sans another miraculously timed PR.
Needless to say, I'm all near-term negative right now.
Today was a variation on one of our typical intra-day behaviors, but on steroids. In this case it was open high, drop, recover some, drop bigger, recover bigger to set a new intra-day high (10:32) and then spend the rest of the day meandering. The wide swings occurring multiple times is much higher than normal intra-day volatility for this symbol.
There were 8 pre-market trades: buys of $0.8484 x 1K, $0.8482 x 500, x 500, $0.8484 x 1.7K, x 500, $0.8482 x 500. $0.85 sell 500, buy 1, sell 100 $0.83, sell 99 $0.8316.
B/a just before open was
09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 5,006 unknown for $0.84. Then came 9:31's 1.3K $0.8480/$0.8301/$0.8480/17, 9:32's 23.6K $0.84/$0.8303/10/02/98/01/00/01/00/$0.82, 9:33's 1.9K $0.8252/03/02/01/50, 9:34's 1.4K $0.8250/0/2/7, 9:35's 6.3K $0.8290/07/02, 9:36's b/a 800:2K $0.8202/79, 9:36's 100 $0.8279, 9:37's 100 $0.8269, 9:38's 100 $0.8268, 9:39's 380 $0.8204/68, 9:40's b/a 200:200 $0.8203/48, 9:40's 2K $0.8247/26/47, 9:41's 200 $0.8247/8, 9:42's 100 $0.8289, 9:43's 100 $0.8280, 9:44's 1.7K $0.8280/47/80/79/$0.8320, 9:45's 400 $0.8302/4, 9:46's 100 $0.8339, 9:48's 1K $0.8320/04/39/35, 9:49's 16.8K $0.8304/50/$0.8 (13.5K blk)/$0.8304/0/1, and 9:50's 100 $0.8350.
The period ended with an exceptional minute: 9:51's 100K $0.810 (9000)/7 (6000)/5 (6000)/$0.8 (4600)/$0.8 (4563)/$0.814 (4100)/5 (3400)/0 (2000)/$0.802 (2000)/12/11/$0.8304/$0.8208/$0.8133/$0.8205/$0.8130/$0.8207/05/02/$0.8135/33/00/$0.8015/11/$0.8100/$0.8304/$0.8205/$0.8132/00/$0.8300/$0.8297/06/04/$0.8150/26/24/$0.8022/20/16/12/0 (28201,5000,5000,4150)/10/00/12.
9:52-10:07, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low-volume $0.81/$0.8203, but for 9:56's 400 $0.8202/09/02, on 9:53's 2.3K $0.82/$0.8101/70 and 9:54's 2K $0.8170/50/82/51. B/a at 9:57 was 300:300 $0.8202/$0.8490. Volume was interrupted by 9:58's 7.7K $0.8202/3/1/0/1/0. B/a at 9:59 was 800:1.8K $0.81/$0.8202. Volume was interrupted by 10:02's 2.7K $0.8110 (1.6K)/00/77 (1K). B/a at 10:05 was 1.2K:300 $0.81/$0.8202. The period ended on 10:07's 1.6K $0.8101/90/01.
10:08-10:45, after one no-trades minute, and after doing a mostly very low and medium volume range collapse from 10:09's 6.1K 0.8194/99/$0.8202/00/02/$0.8300/83/90/9 (3300) to 10:21's 200 $0.8239/40 had b/a at 10:23 of 1.3K:100 $0.8253/99. Then began an initially extremely low/no-volume rise to 10:27's 4.1K $0.8369/$0.84 (1000)/$0.8369/72/97/$0.84 (1700). The the flood-gates opened and the rise began in earnest on very high volume, doing 10:28's 21.4K $0.8401/$0.8541 (9.8K)/$0.85, 10:29's 27K $0.8310/03/$0.855 (15K)/$0.8325, 10:30's 4.5K $0.8539/46/$0.8340/$0.84, 10:31's 100 $0.8427, and peaking on 10:32's 17.7K $0.8500 (8.5K)/50 (3.2K)/$0.8488/$0.8656/$0.8429/30/50/$0.8542/$0.8410/55/56/$0.8503/$0.8460. B/a at 10:33 was 1.3K:100 $0.8500/50. The rest of the period was low/no-volume mostly decline to end the period on 10:45's 349 $0.845/$0.8332.
10:46-11:11, before beginning a rise, began extremely low-volume $0.8336/$0.8449, with falling highs, on 10:46's 226 $0.8336/$0.8449. B/a at 10:47 was 1.2K:200 $0.8322/$0.84. The extremely low-volume rise began on 10:56's 200 $0.8400/49. B/a at 11:01 was 400:400 $0.8335/$0.8530. 11:01's 200 hit $0.8515/30, 11:08's 200 hit $0.856, 11:10's 500 hit $0.8560/99, and the period ended on 11:11's 200 $0.8599.
11:12-11:35 began very mixed-volume $0.8456/$0.8589, with rising lows after 11:20's 7.2K $0.8505/$0.8466/$0.8589/$0.8525, on 11:12's 600 $0.8590/74. B/a at 11:17 was 1.2K:700 $0.8456/$0.8589, 11:31 1.1K:400 $0.8544/89 (bids rising). The period ended on 11:35's 1.1K $0.8586/01.
11:36-14:25, after four no-trades minutes, began a long, slow, extremely low/no-volume (through 12:50) sag on 11:40's 1.4K $0.8421/55. B/a at 11:46 was 200:300 $0.8421/$0.855, 12:01 400:200 $0.8422/$0.8550, 12:17 200:500 $0.8422/$0.8550, 12:31 200:100 $0.8371/$0.8483. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:35's 2.4K $0.8450/$0.8372/$0.8430/37/20/25. 12:44 moved the range up slightly and the sag began again. B/a at 12:46 was 400:500 $0.84/$0.8598. 12:51 bean mostly extremely low, some medium-volume. B/a at 13:02 was 300:1K $0.8400/$0.8597, 13:17 4.1K $0.8423/700 $0.8424/99 (bids rising), 13:31 300:2K $0.8405/$0.85, 13:46 200:1.1K $0.8410/99, 14:01 100:400 $0.8409/44, 14:17 12K:800 $0.8400/1. The last three minutes were higher-volume, doing 14:23's 7.5K $0.8400/01/00, 14:24's 6.1K $0.84 and ending the period on 14:25's 8.9K $0.84.
14:26-15:51 did a big drop down on 14:26's 12.2K $0.8370 (8.5K)/71/70/42/05/20/00/$0.8200 and 14:31's 500 $0.82/$0.815 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.8199/$0.8296, with falling highs, through 15:40. B/a at 14:31 was 3.4K:700 $0.8150/$0.83, 14:46 300:400 $0.8151/$0.8290. Volume was interrupted by 15:00's4.1K $0.8199/$0.8201. B/a at 15:03 was 300:100 $0.8201/90. Volume was interrupted by 15:10's 6.2K $0.8231/50. B/a at 15:16 was 900:800 $0.8250/98, 15:31 100:200 $0.8201/43. 15:42 widened the range to $0.8150/8245. B/a at 15:47 was 2.4K:400 $0.8150/$0.8253. The period ended on 15:51's 610 $0.8198.
15:52-15:59, after two no-trades minutes, did a drop on 15:54's 3.5K $0.8150/60 and 15:56's16.5K $0.8100 (3000)/$0.8000 (9.6K)/04/00/01/04/00/01/00. A mild recovery began on 15:57's 24.1K $0.8090 (24K blk)/84 and 15:58's300 $0.809/$0.816 and the period and day-ending 15:59's 700 $0.8160/52 (600), with the official close $0.8152 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 27 larger trades (>=5K & 7 4K+) totaling 209,810, 41.15% of day's volume, with a $0.8238 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 26 larger trades totaling 204,804, 40.17% of day's volume, with a $0.8234 VWAP. Both groups are below the day's $0.8302. This suggests buyers who are more astute than the typical retail investor is reputed to be. If that is true, then a reasonable assumption is that these buyers were such as institutional investors and/or shorters/MMs doing covering buys. We could also include hedge funds as possible participants as they go both short and long and could be balancing against or covering their short positions.
The count seems reasonable for the day's trade volume but the percentage of day's volume is again high. This may support the thought that we have some larger and more astute participants in our market positioning for something they expect on the positive side or, if hedgies, working to balance their portfolio.
Given the recent larger percentages of daily volume these larger trades have represented I would not be surprised if we have some institutional or hedge fund investors building positions prior to anticipated (by them?) good quarterly reports and subsequent upgrades of the stock, after which we would likely see more "selling into strength".
I guess it's also possible the buyers anticipate another Monday morning PR and, especially if short-term traders, are positioning for that.
While working on yesterday's stuff it crossed my mind that there might be some correlation between the outstanding warrants (and the PR about that?) and our recent price behavior. With my TFH firmly ensconced upon my pate, I also began to consider the possibility that the PRs about the good orders were timed to be in aid of the warrant holders' goals ... by intention. NAH! That would never happen, right?
Anyway, at least today, after the early volatility effects were "washed out", there does seem to be a correlation between VWAP and buy percentage, which is more normal. Both were for the most part essentially flat for the biggest part of the day and the only real change from that came in the closing minutes, which is typical as that period normally has a substantial move up or down.
Wrapping up the breakdown, it looks like what we've been seeing, IMO, "sell into strength".
As before, this does fit in with my "Three-day window" but for the fact that the weakness seemed to appear earlier than normal. Today's the third day so that thesis would suggest tomorrow would most likely be another down day, likely on lowering volume again as the short-term traders have, in the majority, likely exited already.
Yesterday, discussing the apparent early weakening in the "Three-day window", I noted { We'll just have to wait and see if we get the third day or not. } It looks to me like we got it and the "Three-day window" is back. the one discrepancy is the third day is normally an "up" day when the close is above the open even though the range is usually down from the prior day's. Likely an effect of the weakening beginning earlier than normal would be my guess.
Anyway, all that means the call for weakening tomorrow should be pretty reliable.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is today did not (yet!) negate yesterday's confirmation of a breakout above the descending resistance (descending red line). I hate to say, but it sure looks like it's headed that way though. Out low did stay above the line but once these down legs get started we seldom see them of only one-day duration. I would be expecting price to at least penetrate that line in the next couple days and wouldn't be shocked to see it close below, throwing price back into fighting to remain/get above the descending resistance.
A glimmer of hope? I had mentioned that I thought the red line had more strength than the short-term rising potential support (rising green line) because the former was of longer duration and had been tested more. There is always the possibility that the near-term trend is more powerful than the longer-term trend and if this is the case this time we should see the price range "ride" that green line up for a little bit.
I'm not betting my chips on that though.
One other glimmer is embedded in yesterday's { If there's any justice, and reliability, in the TA world that price is now supposed to become support. As many times as it was recently tested it ought to be fairly stout. Let's cross our fingers on that because, as mentioned, I think our "Three-day window" has returned and if that is the case we'll see weakening appear much sooner than the conventional TA would suggest. }
Our low touched $0.80 today. It held and volume is declining, albeit still relatively high, suggesting strength down is weak(ening). If that's truly the case we should continue to honor that $0.80 (now support, of course) and, if we do so long enough, get a rise started.
As before though, I'm not putting my chips on that, even if they are buffalo or cow chips.
Both the fast and slow EMAs are still rising but the rate is reducing on the fast EMA. I still think the near-term likelihood of a negative cross is low, but if we continue this for more than a day or two the likelihood increases substantially.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit but could not close above it for a third day. As mentioned, out history is not good when pushing it. I suspect now we start to see the historical behavior begin.
Yesterday I stuck with the prior day's { a re-trace of price is becoming likely ... forestalled by the return of the "Three-day window". After that I expect a return to some kind of (new?) normal behavior and we'll have to wait to see what develops. }ACK! It wasn't forestalled! So, a bit more egg on my face. It's early but it's beginning to look like the "new normal" is the same as the "old normal" here.
The upper and lower limits are still diverging, but the lower limit has started to rise now. We still have a rising mid-point, about $0.7825. Unfortunately it is below our current support points.
Discussing our $0.82/3 potential resistance yesterday I said { Well, we closed at $0.83, so for now resistance is holding. Entering the third day of our "Three-day window" tomorrow, which generally starts showing weakness (although, as mentioned, I think today has begun showing that) I don't see good odds that we'll break above it and hold. }}
Well, I can wipe a little of that egg off my face. We didn't break above it yesterday and we closed below it today.
On my one-year chart yesterday I noted { It's hard to tell precisely, but today it looks like we closed above it [the long-term descending resistance] again and a breakout was confirmed. } That still hold today as our trading range remains above it. Recall that it has been adjusted once to get a better fit with more recent behavior and now originates at the high of October 21, 2016. It has a fair number of touches, most of them quite recent, and so should be "decent" support. But it is descending and we might ride it down or it may just pull away too fast and I'l have to adjust again.
It's starting to look like we'll see enough stability such that in a couple days it will be worthwhile to project the moving averages again. Not yet though.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related were below neutral while all others were above neutral. RSI and MFI were just below overbought. Nothing s oversold.
Today had continuing weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. Weakening also occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and full stochastic. Accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related are below neutral. Nothing is overbought and RSI moved further from that condition while MFI remains very close to being overbought.
Seeing the important RSI, along with lesser oscillators, joining the weakening is a big negative indication I think.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7361 and $0.8290 ($0.7345 and $0.8220 yesterday), continued diverging as the upper limit is rising faster than the now rising lower limit.
All in, everything is becoming increasingly negative in their indications. The potential euphoria that traditional chartists might have experienced yesterday should have been dissipated by today results. I suspect the euphoria has now transferred to shorters.
My best estimate is we have started a down leg, will go on to test $0.80 and likely not hold there sans another well-timed PR. Even then it may not hold as the participants will certainly begin to recognize the pattern and alter their behavior.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but both are out of desired ranges. The short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check) even though we again had a high percentage of larger trades and even a few "larger larger trades", that were likely "behind the curtain" block trades. I think there is some kind of clue to something in the fairly static specific volume of short sales over the last three days - ~281K, ~269K and ~243K - even as volume varied widely (see table above). I just don't know what that clue would be suggesting.
The spread contracted but is still in a range strongly suggestive of likely near-term movement. It was produced as described at the opening above and tells me this spread is bad ju-ju.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after having improved for two days to 11 negatives and 13 positives, retreated to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 03/09 is $0.1061, 14.66%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.5993%, 0.7302%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, and 0.1802%.
Yesterday I said { Absent the string or [sic] PRs I would see the recent changes in the 24-period rolling averages behavior as quite positive. Given the PRs, my cynical side says "wait a bit - it'll get back to normal". } It's started already!
All in, everything here is suggesting near-term weakness is most likely.
Bill
Yesterday's summary included { That leaves my best case scenario, but not most likely case, being we start going sideways on reducing volume quite soon. I think the most likely case is that we quickly begin seeing price deterioration and begin a leg lower, probably to challenge the former resistances (now supports) that we just broke through. Sans more PRs that trigger volume/price alerts to the fast-money crowd, I don't see them all holding. $0.82/3 was relatively untested and I think will not offer much support, if any. }
That's the case - today $0.82/3 did not hold, we have apparently begun a leg down, we tested $0.80, which held for the first day, and all indications now are for near-term further weakening, sans another miraculously timed PR.
Needless to say, I'm all near-term negative right now.
Today was a variation on one of our typical intra-day behaviors, but on steroids. In this case it was open high, drop, recover some, drop bigger, recover bigger to set a new intra-day high (10:32) and then spend the rest of the day meandering. The wide swings occurring multiple times is much higher than normal intra-day volatility for this symbol.
There were 8 pre-market trades: buys of $0.8484 x 1K, $0.8482 x 500, x 500, $0.8484 x 1.7K, x 500, $0.8482 x 500. $0.85 sell 500, buy 1, sell 100 $0.83, sell 99 $0.8316.
B/a just before open was
09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 5,006 unknown for $0.84. Then came 9:31's 1.3K $0.8480/$0.8301/$0.8480/17, 9:32's 23.6K $0.84/$0.8303/10/02/98/01/00/01/00/$0.82, 9:33's 1.9K $0.8252/03/02/01/50, 9:34's 1.4K $0.8250/0/2/7, 9:35's 6.3K $0.8290/07/02, 9:36's b/a 800:2K $0.8202/79, 9:36's 100 $0.8279, 9:37's 100 $0.8269, 9:38's 100 $0.8268, 9:39's 380 $0.8204/68, 9:40's b/a 200:200 $0.8203/48, 9:40's 2K $0.8247/26/47, 9:41's 200 $0.8247/8, 9:42's 100 $0.8289, 9:43's 100 $0.8280, 9:44's 1.7K $0.8280/47/80/79/$0.8320, 9:45's 400 $0.8302/4, 9:46's 100 $0.8339, 9:48's 1K $0.8320/04/39/35, 9:49's 16.8K $0.8304/50/$0.8 (13.5K blk)/$0.8304/0/1, and 9:50's 100 $0.8350.
The period ended with an exceptional minute: 9:51's 100K $0.810 (9000)/7 (6000)/5 (6000)/$0.8 (4600)/$0.8 (4563)/$0.814 (4100)/5 (3400)/0 (2000)/$0.802 (2000)/12/11/$0.8304/$0.8208/$0.8133/$0.8205/$0.8130/$0.8207/05/02/$0.8135/33/00/$0.8015/11/$0.8100/$0.8304/$0.8205/$0.8132/00/$0.8300/$0.8297/06/04/$0.8150/26/24/$0.8022/20/16/12/0 (28201,5000,5000,4150)/10/00/12.
9:52-10:07, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low-volume $0.81/$0.8203, but for 9:56's 400 $0.8202/09/02, on 9:53's 2.3K $0.82/$0.8101/70 and 9:54's 2K $0.8170/50/82/51. B/a at 9:57 was 300:300 $0.8202/$0.8490. Volume was interrupted by 9:58's 7.7K $0.8202/3/1/0/1/0. B/a at 9:59 was 800:1.8K $0.81/$0.8202. Volume was interrupted by 10:02's 2.7K $0.8110 (1.6K)/00/77 (1K). B/a at 10:05 was 1.2K:300 $0.81/$0.8202. The period ended on 10:07's 1.6K $0.8101/90/01.
10:08-10:45, after one no-trades minute, and after doing a mostly very low and medium volume range collapse from 10:09's 6.1K 0.8194/99/$0.8202/00/02/$0.8300/83/90/9 (3300) to 10:21's 200 $0.8239/40 had b/a at 10:23 of 1.3K:100 $0.8253/99. Then began an initially extremely low/no-volume rise to 10:27's 4.1K $0.8369/$0.84 (1000)/$0.8369/72/97/$0.84 (1700). The the flood-gates opened and the rise began in earnest on very high volume, doing 10:28's 21.4K $0.8401/$0.8541 (9.8K)/$0.85, 10:29's 27K $0.8310/03/$0.855 (15K)/$0.8325, 10:30's 4.5K $0.8539/46/$0.8340/$0.84, 10:31's 100 $0.8427, and peaking on 10:32's 17.7K $0.8500 (8.5K)/50 (3.2K)/$0.8488/$0.8656/$0.8429/30/50/$0.8542/$0.8410/55/56/$0.8503/$0.8460. B/a at 10:33 was 1.3K:100 $0.8500/50. The rest of the period was low/no-volume mostly decline to end the period on 10:45's 349 $0.845/$0.8332.
10:46-11:11, before beginning a rise, began extremely low-volume $0.8336/$0.8449, with falling highs, on 10:46's 226 $0.8336/$0.8449. B/a at 10:47 was 1.2K:200 $0.8322/$0.84. The extremely low-volume rise began on 10:56's 200 $0.8400/49. B/a at 11:01 was 400:400 $0.8335/$0.8530. 11:01's 200 hit $0.8515/30, 11:08's 200 hit $0.856, 11:10's 500 hit $0.8560/99, and the period ended on 11:11's 200 $0.8599.
11:12-11:35 began very mixed-volume $0.8456/$0.8589, with rising lows after 11:20's 7.2K $0.8505/$0.8466/$0.8589/$0.8525, on 11:12's 600 $0.8590/74. B/a at 11:17 was 1.2K:700 $0.8456/$0.8589, 11:31 1.1K:400 $0.8544/89 (bids rising). The period ended on 11:35's 1.1K $0.8586/01.
11:36-14:25, after four no-trades minutes, began a long, slow, extremely low/no-volume (through 12:50) sag on 11:40's 1.4K $0.8421/55. B/a at 11:46 was 200:300 $0.8421/$0.855, 12:01 400:200 $0.8422/$0.8550, 12:17 200:500 $0.8422/$0.8550, 12:31 200:100 $0.8371/$0.8483. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:35's 2.4K $0.8450/$0.8372/$0.8430/37/20/25. 12:44 moved the range up slightly and the sag began again. B/a at 12:46 was 400:500 $0.84/$0.8598. 12:51 bean mostly extremely low, some medium-volume. B/a at 13:02 was 300:1K $0.8400/$0.8597, 13:17 4.1K $0.8423/700 $0.8424/99 (bids rising), 13:31 300:2K $0.8405/$0.85, 13:46 200:1.1K $0.8410/99, 14:01 100:400 $0.8409/44, 14:17 12K:800 $0.8400/1. The last three minutes were higher-volume, doing 14:23's 7.5K $0.8400/01/00, 14:24's 6.1K $0.84 and ending the period on 14:25's 8.9K $0.84.
14:26-15:51 did a big drop down on 14:26's 12.2K $0.8370 (8.5K)/71/70/42/05/20/00/$0.8200 and 14:31's 500 $0.82/$0.815 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.8199/$0.8296, with falling highs, through 15:40. B/a at 14:31 was 3.4K:700 $0.8150/$0.83, 14:46 300:400 $0.8151/$0.8290. Volume was interrupted by 15:00's4.1K $0.8199/$0.8201. B/a at 15:03 was 300:100 $0.8201/90. Volume was interrupted by 15:10's 6.2K $0.8231/50. B/a at 15:16 was 900:800 $0.8250/98, 15:31 100:200 $0.8201/43. 15:42 widened the range to $0.8150/8245. B/a at 15:47 was 2.4K:400 $0.8150/$0.8253. The period ended on 15:51's 610 $0.8198.
15:52-15:59, after two no-trades minutes, did a drop on 15:54's 3.5K $0.8150/60 and 15:56's16.5K $0.8100 (3000)/$0.8000 (9.6K)/04/00/01/04/00/01/00. A mild recovery began on 15:57's 24.1K $0.8090 (24K blk)/84 and 15:58's300 $0.809/$0.816 and the period and day-ending 15:59's 700 $0.8160/52 (600), with the official close $0.8152 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 27 larger trades (>=5K & 7 4K+) totaling 209,810, 41.15% of day's volume, with a $0.8238 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 26 larger trades totaling 204,804, 40.17% of day's volume, with a $0.8234 VWAP. Both groups are below the day's $0.8302. This suggests buyers who are more astute than the typical retail investor is reputed to be. If that is true, then a reasonable assumption is that these buyers were such as institutional investors and/or shorters/MMs doing covering buys. We could also include hedge funds as possible participants as they go both short and long and could be balancing against or covering their short positions.
The count seems reasonable for the day's trade volume but the percentage of day's volume is again high. This may support the thought that we have some larger and more astute participants in our market positioning for something they expect on the positive side or, if hedgies, working to balance their portfolio.
Given the recent larger percentages of daily volume these larger trades have represented I would not be surprised if we have some institutional or hedge fund investors building positions prior to anticipated (by them?) good quarterly reports and subsequent upgrades of the stock, after which we would likely see more "selling into strength".
I guess it's also possible the buyers anticipate another Monday morning PR and, especially if short-term traders, are positioning for that.
These buy percentages are getting really, really stale. Here we have yet another day with price ranging above, although touching, known supports on good, but granted not rising, volume and the buy percentage continues to suggest selling into strength. Today being the third day of the "Three-day window", I guess I shouldn't be surprised.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:20 5300 $0.8300 $0.8500 $4,495.18 $0.8481 1.04% 87.06%
09:51 156124 $0.8000 $0.8480 $127,650.95 $0.8176 30.62% 23.46% Incl 09:30 $0.8400 5,006 09:32 $0.8398 6,500
09:35 $0.8290 5,000 09:49 $0.8400 13,500
09:51 $0.8100 9,000 $0.8141 4,100
09:51 6,000 $0.8155 $0.8170 $0.8200 4,600
09:51 $0.8300 4,563 $0.8000 4,150
09:51 $0.8000 5,000 5,000 28,201
10:07 20850 $0.8100 $0.8290 $17,034.91 $0.8170 4.09% 23.44%
10:45 113865 $0.8194 $0.8656 $96,066.05 $0.8437 22.33% 37.09% Incl 10:18 $0.8245 5,000 10:28 $0.8541 9,800
10:29 $0.8550 4,810 10,000
10:32 $0.8500 8,535
11:11 5630 $0.8336 $0.8599 $4,760.05 $0.8455 1.10% 37.63%
14:25 113146 $0.8372 $0.8593 $95,743.67 $0.8462 22.19% 36.35% Incl 14:03 $0.8417 7,000 14:24 $0.8400 4,673
14:25 $0.8400 8,300
15:51 46783 $0.8150 $0.8371 $38,600.87 $0.8251 9.18% 37.56% Incl 14:26 $0.8370 6,500 15:10 $0.8232 5,000
15:59 45012 $0.8000 $0.8160 $36,323.67 $0.8070 8.83% 38.23% Incl 15:56 $0.8000 4,618 5,000
15:57 $0.8090 23,954
While working on yesterday's stuff it crossed my mind that there might be some correlation between the outstanding warrants (and the PR about that?) and our recent price behavior. With my TFH firmly ensconced upon my pate, I also began to consider the possibility that the PRs about the good orders were timed to be in aid of the warrant holders' goals ... by intention. NAH! That would never happen, right?
Anyway, at least today, after the early volatility effects were "washed out", there does seem to be a correlation between VWAP and buy percentage, which is more normal. Both were for the most part essentially flat for the biggest part of the day and the only real change from that came in the closing minutes, which is typical as that period normally has a substantial move up or down.
Wrapping up the breakdown, it looks like what we've been seeing, IMO, "sell into strength".
As before, this does fit in with my "Three-day window" but for the fact that the weakness seemed to appear earlier than normal. Today's the third day so that thesis would suggest tomorrow would most likely be another down day, likely on lowering volume again as the short-term traders have, in the majority, likely exited already.
Yesterday, discussing the apparent early weakening in the "Three-day window", I noted { We'll just have to wait and see if we get the third day or not. } It looks to me like we got it and the "Three-day window" is back. the one discrepancy is the third day is normally an "up" day when the close is above the open even though the range is usually down from the prior day's. Likely an effect of the weakening beginning earlier than normal would be my guess.
Anyway, all that means the call for weakening tomorrow should be pretty reliable.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Well, it looks like a down-leg has started. I was hoping, rather weakly I'll admit, that we might get a sideways move started, which would offer some hope of a near-term beginning of a grind higher on the heels of these good PRs and the (anticipated?) improvement in the co. fundamentals in the next reporting. Not to be I guess.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.18% -1.42% -1.61% -1.78% -51.29%
Prior 10.46% 6.29% 3.52% 1.97% 15.52%
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is today did not (yet!) negate yesterday's confirmation of a breakout above the descending resistance (descending red line). I hate to say, but it sure looks like it's headed that way though. Out low did stay above the line but once these down legs get started we seldom see them of only one-day duration. I would be expecting price to at least penetrate that line in the next couple days and wouldn't be shocked to see it close below, throwing price back into fighting to remain/get above the descending resistance.
A glimmer of hope? I had mentioned that I thought the red line had more strength than the short-term rising potential support (rising green line) because the former was of longer duration and had been tested more. There is always the possibility that the near-term trend is more powerful than the longer-term trend and if this is the case this time we should see the price range "ride" that green line up for a little bit.
I'm not betting my chips on that though.
One other glimmer is embedded in yesterday's { If there's any justice, and reliability, in the TA world that price is now supposed to become support. As many times as it was recently tested it ought to be fairly stout. Let's cross our fingers on that because, as mentioned, I think our "Three-day window" has returned and if that is the case we'll see weakening appear much sooner than the conventional TA would suggest. }
Our low touched $0.80 today. It held and volume is declining, albeit still relatively high, suggesting strength down is weak(ening). If that's truly the case we should continue to honor that $0.80 (now support, of course) and, if we do so long enough, get a rise started.
As before though, I'm not putting my chips on that, even if they are buffalo or cow chips.
Both the fast and slow EMAs are still rising but the rate is reducing on the fast EMA. I still think the near-term likelihood of a negative cross is low, but if we continue this for more than a day or two the likelihood increases substantially.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit but could not close above it for a third day. As mentioned, out history is not good when pushing it. I suspect now we start to see the historical behavior begin.
Yesterday I stuck with the prior day's { a re-trace of price is becoming likely ... forestalled by the return of the "Three-day window". After that I expect a return to some kind of (new?) normal behavior and we'll have to wait to see what develops. }ACK! It wasn't forestalled! So, a bit more egg on my face. It's early but it's beginning to look like the "new normal" is the same as the "old normal" here.
The upper and lower limits are still diverging, but the lower limit has started to rise now. We still have a rising mid-point, about $0.7825. Unfortunately it is below our current support points.
Discussing our $0.82/3 potential resistance yesterday I said { Well, we closed at $0.83, so for now resistance is holding. Entering the third day of our "Three-day window" tomorrow, which generally starts showing weakness (although, as mentioned, I think today has begun showing that) I don't see good odds that we'll break above it and hold. }}
Well, I can wipe a little of that egg off my face. We didn't break above it yesterday and we closed below it today.
On my one-year chart yesterday I noted { It's hard to tell precisely, but today it looks like we closed above it [the long-term descending resistance] again and a breakout was confirmed. } That still hold today as our trading range remains above it. Recall that it has been adjusted once to get a better fit with more recent behavior and now originates at the high of October 21, 2016. It has a fair number of touches, most of them quite recent, and so should be "decent" support. But it is descending and we might ride it down or it may just pull away too fast and I'l have to adjust again.
It's starting to look like we'll see enough stability such that in a couple days it will be worthwhile to project the moving averages again. Not yet though.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related were below neutral while all others were above neutral. RSI and MFI were just below overbought. Nothing s oversold.
Today had continuing weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. Weakening also occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and full stochastic. Accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related are below neutral. Nothing is overbought and RSI moved further from that condition while MFI remains very close to being overbought.
Seeing the important RSI, along with lesser oscillators, joining the weakening is a big negative indication I think.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7361 and $0.8290 ($0.7345 and $0.8220 yesterday), continued diverging as the upper limit is rising faster than the now rising lower limit.
All in, everything is becoming increasingly negative in their indications. The potential euphoria that traditional chartists might have experienced yesterday should have been dissipated by today results. I suspect the euphoria has now transferred to shorters.
My best estimate is we have started a down leg, will go on to test $0.80 and likely not hold there sans another well-timed PR. Even then it may not hold as the participants will certainly begin to recognize the pattern and alter their behavior.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but both are out of desired ranges. The short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check) even though we again had a high percentage of larger trades and even a few "larger larger trades", that were likely "behind the curtain" block trades. I think there is some kind of clue to something in the fairly static specific volume of short sales over the last three days - ~281K, ~269K and ~243K - even as volume varied widely (see table above). I just don't know what that clue would be suggesting.
The spread contracted but is still in a range strongly suggestive of likely near-term movement. It was produced as described at the opening above and tells me this spread is bad ju-ju.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after having improved for two days to 11 negatives and 13 positives, retreated to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 03/09 is $0.1061, 14.66%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.5993%, 0.7302%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, and 0.1802%.
Yesterday I said { Absent the string or [sic] PRs I would see the recent changes in the 24-period rolling averages behavior as quite positive. Given the PRs, my cynical side says "wait a bit - it'll get back to normal". } It's started already!
All in, everything here is suggesting near-term weakness is most likely.
Bill
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