Sunday, April 16, 2017 11:30:10 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/11 2017 EOD
In aggregate, conflicting indications between the conventional TA and my unconventional stuff forces me to "arbitrate". As is common, I come down on the side of my unconventional stuff as it seems to me to have a better track record.
That leaves my best case scenario, but not most likely case, being we start going sideways on reducing volume quite soon. I think the most likely case is that we quickly begin seeing price deterioration and begin a leg lower, probably to challenge the former resistances (now supports) that we just broke through. Sans more PRs that trigger volume/price alerts to the fast-money crowd, I don't see them all holding. $0.82/3 was relatively untested and I think will not offer much support, if any.
OTOH, the minimal chart's medium-term descending support (former resistance - upper descending red line) showed recent strength on multiple occasions as resistance and should offer support, at least in the form of price range "riding" it lower. Given the volatility we know exist in this stock though that "should" is a bit iffy IMO.
Another potential support is the short-term rising support (rising green line) that was well-tested and showed consistent support. However, the same caveat about volatility and PRs that applies to the longer-term support applies here. Further, being a shorter duration support I'm guessing it will be "overruled" by the medium-term line and it likely won't hold for long.
Yesterday I noted here that { Today's combination of volume and price movement should trigger the volume/price alerts for the frequent trader crowd. }. It looks like that happened.
I also said { Everything, except the ending buy percentage in my unconventional stuff, is suggesting near-term up-side. My view of the intra-day behavior makes me think the "Three-day window" is back, meaning that I won't be looking for solid indications of coming behavior until 11/13 or later as whatever the new normal behavior [will be] should start to become apparent. } Today's volume and price behavior, along with what's in the intra-day breakdown below, makes me think we are, indeed, within a "Three-day window" scenario.
Today did a relatively low open, did a huge move up to the day's high by 10:14 and an equally huge drop all the way back to the early low by 10:55. Then came another huge move up to just below the high by ~11:35, a flattish sideways $0.85xx/$0.87xx through ~13:40 followed by a long trend down to set a new intra0day low of $0.8150 through 14:53. There was a recovery of a couple pennies up and a wide-range sideways into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 19,640 buy for $0.85 & $0.8487 x100, x 800, sell $0.8496 x 4K, buy $0.8497 x 100, x 880, x 600, x 300, x 3,220, $0.8496 x 200, sells for $0.84 x 100, x 600, x 100, x 100, buy $0.8497 x 3, sells $0.8401 x 5K, x 1K, x 200, buy $0.84 300, sell $0.82 x 200.
Then came 9:31's b/a 2K:100 $0.82/$0.8396, 9:31's 100 $0.8299, 9:32's 1.2K $0.8299 (1K)/03/07, 9:34's b/a 1.1K:100 $0.8253/$0.8398 (bids rising), 9:34's 3.1K $0.8289/$0.83/$0.8299/53/98/97, 8:35's 200 $0.8305/98, 9:36's 2.5K $0.8371/10/53/3508/$0.8450/$0.8333, 9:27's b/a 300:300 $0.8333/$0.8490, 9:37's 100 $0.8450, 9:38's 200 $0.8490.$0.8375, 9:39's1K $0.8490/89/16/90/17, 9:40's 100 $0.8490, 9:41's 1K $0.8480/12/80/43/20, 9:42's 1.1K $0.8444/67/45/44/20, 9:43's b/a 500:300 $0.8302/$0.8445, 9:43's 200 $0.8311, 9:44's 8.6K $0.8422/45/89/45/44/$0.8398/$0.8488/$0.8398/$0.8401/2/1/5, 9:45's 3.8K $0.8405/79/06, 9:46's 7.7K $0.8406/75/06/$0.8397/$0.8408/$0.8397/95/02/$0.8407/06/$0.8302, 9:47's 1.6K $0.8449/$0.8304/30, 9:48's 200 $0.8330/1, 9:50's 100 $0.8443, 9:50's b/a 500:2.2K $0.8411/50, 9:51's 2.3K $0.8450 (2K)/$0.8411, 9:52's 400 $0.8411/50, 9:53's b/a 500:2.6K $0.8411/2.1K, 9:54's 5.5K $0.8411/00/$0.8250/$0.8423/01/50/01/00, 9:55's 433 $0.8400/02/00, 9:55's b/a 100:300 $0.8400/49, 9:56's 100 $0.8425, 9:57's 100 $0.8403, 9:59's 4.6K $0.8426/03/04, the period ended on 10:00's 200 $0.8405/6.
10:01-10:15 began a low/medium-volume slow crawl higher on 10:01's 100 $0.8431. B/a at 10:07 was 200:100 $0.8474/80, 10:10 300:1.3K $0.8481/90. The period ended on 10:15's 72.9K $0.8484/$0.8500(8.7K)/$0.8482/$0.8500/$0.8491/82/$0.8500/$0.8482/91/$0.8500/$0.8482/91/$0.8500/10/$0.8482/$0.8510/$0.8496/$0.8510(6.1K)/$0.8482/$0.8510/$0.8482/96/$0.8516/$0.8550(115K)/70(6K)/$0.8600(14.4K)/$0.8550/$0.8600/$0.8570/$0.8600/01(4.3K)/00/01/50/$0.8700/$0.8650/$0.8700/01/38/02/$0.8601/02/01/$0.8798/$0.8604/$0.8700/89/98/89/00/$0.8610.
10:16-10:29 began, on 10:16's 800 $0.8655/$0.8978/$0.862, a very low-volume rise through 10:23 to $0.8625/90 and then began a drop. B/a at 10:21 was 500:700 $0.8618/98. 10:26's 33.8K hit $0.8639/$0.8510 and the period ended on 10:29's 22.2K $0.8452/01/03.
10:30-10:44 began an extremely low/no-volume very small rise on 10:30's 8.9K $0.8405/$0.8566/$0.8412 and went sideways $0.8533/67. B/a at 10:31 was 400:400 $0.8406/$0.8569. The period ended on 10:44's 100 $0.856.
10:45-10:51 began a mixed-volume drop, heavy on the selling, on 10:45's 6.7K $0.856/$0.8401/29. B/a at 10:46 was 300:9.2K $0.8419/50. 10:48's 10.3K hit $0.8403/$0.8205/21 and the period ended on 10:51's 55.2K $0.8300/1/$0.8115/38.
10:52-11:32 began, on 10:52's 2.2K $0.83/$0.8251/98, a low/medium-volume sideways $0.82/$0.8346. B/a at 10:54 was 1.1K:600 $0.82/3. Sideways ended at 11:12. This was followed by a mostly low-volume rise, hitting 11:14's 8.3K $0.8389/06/$0.8440/$0.8378. B/a at 11:17 was 2.1K:400 $0.8319/$0.84 (bids rising). 11:28's 12K hit $0.8450/06/$0.8501, 11:29's 1.4K hit $0.8501/97/07, and the period ended on 11:32's 9.3K $0.8596/$0.8725/$0.8531.
11:33-12:18 began mostly low-volume, with several medium and high-volume minutes, $0.8529/$0.87 (one minute did $0.8725) on 11:33's 1.2K $0.8531/$0.87/$0.8532. B/a at 11:33 was 1.2K:1.3K $0.8531/$0.8699, 11:49 900:9.5K $0.8565/$0.86 (bids rising), 12:02 1K:200 $0.8649/50, 12:16 200:400 $0.8691/$0.87. The period ended on 12:18's 700 $0.8702/23.
12:19-13:10 did a drop on 12:19's 20.4K $0.8723/$0.8500/26 before beginning a extremely low/no-volume sideways $0.8600/49 and dropping again on 12:24's 2.7K $0.8597/99/10. That kicked off a mostly very low/no-volume climb. B/a at 12:33 was 502::200 $0.8571/2. 12:37's 800 hit $0.862/5. B/a at 12:48 700:1.5K $0.8609/50 (bids rising). 13:01's 400 hit $0.8657/72. B/a at 13:02 was 100:400 $0.8651/87, 13:17 300:1.7K $0.8690/$0.87. The period ended on 13:10's 1.1K $0.8683/4/3.
13:11-13:44 began very low-volume $0.8689/$0.87 on 13:11's 150 $0.872. B/a at 13:33 was 600:2.9K $0.8699/$87. Price and volume was interrupted by 13:39's 2.3K $0.8699/59/60. B/a at 13:42 was 500:1.2K $0.8667/99. The period ended on 13:44's 5.1K $0.8674.
13:45-15:00 began a long, very slow, mostly very low-volume flattish and decline sequence after a short rapid drop and bounce back on 13:45's 7.5K $0.8699/00, 13:46's b/a 200:2.9K $0.8572/$0.8699, 13:46's 5.5K $0.86/$0.8572, 13:47's 5.4K $0.8602/$0.8500/13, 15:48's 100 $0.8572, 13:49's 500 $0.867, and 13:50's 2.3K $0.8639/70. 13:52-14:04 did an extremely low/no-volume rise from $0.8551 to $0.86 and came back to go flat $0.8551 by 14:04. B/a at 14:01 was 900:1.7K $0.8579/$0.86 (bids falling), 14:17 1.8K:600 $0.8551/99. Volume and price was interrupted by 14:23's 4.3K $0.8555/99. 14:24-:25's 19K dropped from $0.8551 to $0.84, saw b/a at 14:31 of 1.1K:900 $0.8400/20, and went flattish $0.84xx through 14:34 before doing another drop on 14:35's 7K to $0.8400/1/$0.8335/7. Then a rise was done on 14:36-:38's 15.4K $0.8337->$0.855. That started another fall hitting 14:44's $0.85/$0.841, seeing 14:46's b/a 300:790 $0.8410/$0.8541, doing 14:50's 14.8K $0.84/8311/15, 14:52's 25.8K $0.8409/$0.836, 14:53's 38.1K $0.832/$0.815/7, and going sideways low/medium-volume $0.8151/$0.8329 to end the period on 15:00's 3.3K $0.8300/29/14.
15:01-15:20 began a very low-volume flattish $0.8250/$0.8315, with rising lows, after 15:01's 400 $0.83/$0.8223 and 15:02's11.3K$0.8223/$0.83/$0.9820. B/a at 15:02 was 200:300 $0.8223/27 (b/a falling). 15:07's 1.1K hit $0.8279/15. B/a at 15:17 was 200:100 $0.8314/16. The period ended on 15:20's 200 $0.8314.
15:21-15:45 began a mostly very low-volume decline, and recovery of about half the loss, after 15:21's 3.6K $0.8399/$0.8498. Range went to $0.8220/$0.8301 at 15:26. Volume was interrupted by 15:30's 11.8K $0.8300/1/$0.8220/4. Volume became mostly low volume. B/a at 15:31 was 200:300 $0.8240/$0.83. The period low was hit on 15:33's 1.9K $0.8221/0. Volume was again interrupted by 15:34's 13K $0.8220/$0.8496/$0.8301 and 15:35's 2.3K $0.83/$0.8220/1. That began the recovery on mostly medium-volume. Volume was interrupted by 15:38's 11.2K $0.8231/$0.8340/$0.8230/$0.8235. The recovery completed on 15:43's 2.1K $0.8319/60 and the period ended on 15:45's 2.9K $0.8340/00.
15:46-16:00 began a very flattish medium-volume $0.8300/11. B/a at 15:50 was 9.7K:200 $0.8310/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's 9.5K $0.8310/$0.823/$0.83 and 16:00's sell of 2,023 for $0.83.
There was one AH sell of 1K for $0.8011.
Including the opening trades (closing closing didn't qualify), there were 46 larger trades (>=5K & 14 4K+) totaling 339,039, 32.39% of day's volume, with a $0.8470 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 45 larger trades totaling 319,399, 30.51% of day's volume, with a $0.8468 VWAP. Even allowing for today's elevated trade volume, the count seems unusually high. The percentage of day's volume is higher than normal but considering what we have seen in the PRs, maybe it's not really out of line. It was aided by some "larger larger trades", as one could expect when we get a higher-volume price "pop". The day, swing and momo traders probably all hopped on the bandwagon.
The VWAPs were above the day's $0.8455. It could be it's due mostly to shorters covering if it weren't for the fact that every time we've seen strength to the upside it has met stout resistance, possibly mostly from shorters and maybe some short-term traders taking profits. Given that I don't see shorters getting panicked here and doing covering buys at elevated prices, that leaves me thinking mostly retail investors and/or short-term traders were paying these higher prices.
That reminds me - just as with yesterday, I believe the number of larger trades going off "behind the curtain" is likely masking the underlying shorting activity. Sans that consideration I would expect today's short percentage, below, to be high. With that consideration, not so much.
Yesterday I noted here also, { This makes me think the "Three-day window" has returned, a good thing as that's more normal than what we had been seeing. I guess we got enough ... } The breakdown above, when compared to yesterday's reinforces that. However, the weakening in buy percentage seems a little early to me. We'll just have to wait and see if we get the third day or not.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:[pre[ __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 10.46% 6.29% 3.52% 1.97% 15.52%
Prior -1.35% 0.46% 6.22% 6.42% 206.13%There was a 1K AH trade for $0.8011. If that's used instead of the official $0.8115, the low movement becomes 4.92% instead of the 6.29% we got.
Contrary to what the intra-day breakdown suggests, these readings would make all the chartists quite enthusiastic. Only the close gives any hint that things may not be as rosy as the other metrics indicate. Regardless, I'm sticking to my guns with yesterday's { Price is not out of the woods yet, I think, as it'll take an actual positive quarterly report and CC, not just positive spin, to get the rest of the potential longs in and the shorters scattering for the hills. }
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is today's confirmation of a breakout signaled by yesterday's move and close above the medium-term descending resistance (red line) that had been defining the trend down and offering quite stiff resistance. It's also on rising volume, although not as much as I would have liked to see in the percentage of rise. That's in light of yesterday's 206% increase though. If yesterday's had been a smaller increase today's increase would look a lot more impressive. Maybe I'm nit-picking here.
Yesterday price finally escaped from the $0.80 flat resistance that had been holding for the highs. If there's any justice, and reliability, in the TA world that price is now supposed to become support. As many times as it was recently tested it ought to be fairly stout. Let's cross our fingers on that because, as mentioned, I think our "Three-day window" has returned and if that is the case we'll see weakening appear much sooner than the conventional TA would suggest.
Both the fast and slow EMAs are rising smartly and there is little likelihood of a negative cross appearing near-term.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit and closed above it again. As mentioned, out history is not good when pushing it. But for now it is what it is and everything else in the conventional TA world is suggesting upward strength. If only I hadn't gone down the road of looking at things from a different vantage-point I'd be happy as a pig in ... "mud" right now.
Discussing that yesterday, I wrapped up with { That would normally suggest a re-trace of price is becoming likely. I think it will, soon, but I think that will be forestalled by the presumed by me return of the "Three-day window". After that I expect a return to some kind of (new?) normal behavior and we'll have to wait to see what develops. } I'm hanging with that assessment for now. Probably end up with egg on my face. That's OK though - what's one more layer on top of the others?
The band still has a rising mid-point though as the upper limit is rising much faster than the lower limit is descending.
Yesterday I noted { There is one disturbing negative - our close was below the old $0.82/3 that we hit in a past attempt to rise. That prior one was only one recent test, so we don't know how strong it will be. I suspect it will hold, near-term, since it's looking very much like our "Three-day window" may be back, based on today's behavior.
Well, we closed at $0.83, so for now resistance is holding. Entering the third day of our "Three-day window" tomorrow, which generally starts showing weakness (although, as mentioned, I think today has begun showing that) I don't see good odds that we'll break above it and hold.
On my one-year chart yesterday's price range was almost completely above the descending resistance. It's hard to tell precisely, but today it looks like we closed above it again and a breakout was confirmed.
As with yesterday, { I'll wait for some stability to return before resuming discussion of the moving averages' expected behavior. For now, based on what they were doing vs. the current price behavior, we can presume that most/all will be rising for a bit,but for the 200-day SMA. A quick peek at the chart has confirmed this. They are in order too, but for the 200-day. } Today however the 50-day barely squeaked out a rise. If we hold here, tomorrow would see the 50-day weaken, breaking the trend.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every oscillator. Below neutral are accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. Everything else is above neutral. Only MFI (untrusted by me) is overbought and RSI is quite near that. Williams %R is approaching it but has a bit more to go.
Today had weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. These three, especially accumulation/distribution, switching from yesterday's improving suggests that my assessment about selling into strength may be spot-on. "Distribution" at "elevated" prices would make sense for short-term traders, warrant-holders (that occurred to me while pondering the the volume changes seen) and any retailers that had been holding at/near these prices and had become discouraged.
Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral while all others are above neutral. RSI and MFI are just below overbought. Nothing is oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7345 and $0.8220 ($0.7416 and $0.8057 yesterday), continued diverging with a rising mid-point as the upper limit is rising faster than the lower limit is declining.
All in, we have some mixed signals in the above with most of the conventional TA suggesting more near-term up-side is most likely and my unconventional stuff (intra-day observation and breakdown) doubting that scenario. Here I'll go with my unconventional stuff and say the move up is now weak(ening) and the best I can see is going sideways. The more likely, I think, is price weakening beginning another move back below the resistances we so recently broke above. The caveat on that is that it's very short-term and we might quickly see more PRs that might prevent that.
My TFH has been especially active and believes the PRs were timed to support the financiers (2nd or 3rd-tier - an especially vile group) that hold the warrants for shares.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but keep in mind my belief that the true underlying shorting behavior is being masked by the larger trades. If the larger trades' percentage of day's volume had been more normal I think the short percentage would be quite a bit higher.
I could be all wrong about that though.
The buy percentage dropped from yesterday's "no man's land" to near-term bearish territory again. One would think that promises of cost-cutting, several recent larger order PRs, ... could have a longer-term effect on price here. I guess it shows just how jaded "the market" has become about $CPST.
The spread contracted but is still quite large, suggesting that near-term movement is likely to continue.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved for the second day, now 11 negatives and 13 positives. Change since 03/08 is $0.1310, 18.33%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.7302%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, and 0.1960%. Absent the string or PRs I would see the recent changes in the 24-period rolling averages behavior as quite positive. Given the PRs, my cynical side says "wait a bit - it'll get back to normal".
All in, regardless of my distrust of the short percentage for the moment, I have to go all negative due to the combination of buy percentage, spread and volume rise on an "up" day seeming to be slowing. If I suspend my distrust of the short percentage the fact that it's well below what I think is normal (needs re-check) is a non-positive indicator.
Bill
In aggregate, conflicting indications between the conventional TA and my unconventional stuff forces me to "arbitrate". As is common, I come down on the side of my unconventional stuff as it seems to me to have a better track record.
That leaves my best case scenario, but not most likely case, being we start going sideways on reducing volume quite soon. I think the most likely case is that we quickly begin seeing price deterioration and begin a leg lower, probably to challenge the former resistances (now supports) that we just broke through. Sans more PRs that trigger volume/price alerts to the fast-money crowd, I don't see them all holding. $0.82/3 was relatively untested and I think will not offer much support, if any.
OTOH, the minimal chart's medium-term descending support (former resistance - upper descending red line) showed recent strength on multiple occasions as resistance and should offer support, at least in the form of price range "riding" it lower. Given the volatility we know exist in this stock though that "should" is a bit iffy IMO.
Another potential support is the short-term rising support (rising green line) that was well-tested and showed consistent support. However, the same caveat about volatility and PRs that applies to the longer-term support applies here. Further, being a shorter duration support I'm guessing it will be "overruled" by the medium-term line and it likely won't hold for long.
Yesterday I noted here that { Today's combination of volume and price movement should trigger the volume/price alerts for the frequent trader crowd. }. It looks like that happened.
I also said { Everything, except the ending buy percentage in my unconventional stuff, is suggesting near-term up-side. My view of the intra-day behavior makes me think the "Three-day window" is back, meaning that I won't be looking for solid indications of coming behavior until 11/13 or later as whatever the new normal behavior [will be] should start to become apparent. } Today's volume and price behavior, along with what's in the intra-day breakdown below, makes me think we are, indeed, within a "Three-day window" scenario.
Today did a relatively low open, did a huge move up to the day's high by 10:14 and an equally huge drop all the way back to the early low by 10:55. Then came another huge move up to just below the high by ~11:35, a flattish sideways $0.85xx/$0.87xx through ~13:40 followed by a long trend down to set a new intra0day low of $0.8150 through 14:53. There was a recovery of a couple pennies up and a wide-range sideways into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 19,640 buy for $0.85 & $0.8487 x100, x 800, sell $0.8496 x 4K, buy $0.8497 x 100, x 880, x 600, x 300, x 3,220, $0.8496 x 200, sells for $0.84 x 100, x 600, x 100, x 100, buy $0.8497 x 3, sells $0.8401 x 5K, x 1K, x 200, buy $0.84 300, sell $0.82 x 200.
Then came 9:31's b/a 2K:100 $0.82/$0.8396, 9:31's 100 $0.8299, 9:32's 1.2K $0.8299 (1K)/03/07, 9:34's b/a 1.1K:100 $0.8253/$0.8398 (bids rising), 9:34's 3.1K $0.8289/$0.83/$0.8299/53/98/97, 8:35's 200 $0.8305/98, 9:36's 2.5K $0.8371/10/53/3508/$0.8450/$0.8333, 9:27's b/a 300:300 $0.8333/$0.8490, 9:37's 100 $0.8450, 9:38's 200 $0.8490.$0.8375, 9:39's1K $0.8490/89/16/90/17, 9:40's 100 $0.8490, 9:41's 1K $0.8480/12/80/43/20, 9:42's 1.1K $0.8444/67/45/44/20, 9:43's b/a 500:300 $0.8302/$0.8445, 9:43's 200 $0.8311, 9:44's 8.6K $0.8422/45/89/45/44/$0.8398/$0.8488/$0.8398/$0.8401/2/1/5, 9:45's 3.8K $0.8405/79/06, 9:46's 7.7K $0.8406/75/06/$0.8397/$0.8408/$0.8397/95/02/$0.8407/06/$0.8302, 9:47's 1.6K $0.8449/$0.8304/30, 9:48's 200 $0.8330/1, 9:50's 100 $0.8443, 9:50's b/a 500:2.2K $0.8411/50, 9:51's 2.3K $0.8450 (2K)/$0.8411, 9:52's 400 $0.8411/50, 9:53's b/a 500:2.6K $0.8411/2.1K, 9:54's 5.5K $0.8411/00/$0.8250/$0.8423/01/50/01/00, 9:55's 433 $0.8400/02/00, 9:55's b/a 100:300 $0.8400/49, 9:56's 100 $0.8425, 9:57's 100 $0.8403, 9:59's 4.6K $0.8426/03/04, the period ended on 10:00's 200 $0.8405/6.
10:01-10:15 began a low/medium-volume slow crawl higher on 10:01's 100 $0.8431. B/a at 10:07 was 200:100 $0.8474/80, 10:10 300:1.3K $0.8481/90. The period ended on 10:15's 72.9K $0.8484/$0.8500(8.7K)/$0.8482/$0.8500/$0.8491/82/$0.8500/$0.8482/91/$0.8500/$0.8482/91/$0.8500/10/$0.8482/$0.8510/$0.8496/$0.8510(6.1K)/$0.8482/$0.8510/$0.8482/96/$0.8516/$0.8550(115K)/70(6K)/$0.8600(14.4K)/$0.8550/$0.8600/$0.8570/$0.8600/01(4.3K)/00/01/50/$0.8700/$0.8650/$0.8700/01/38/02/$0.8601/02/01/$0.8798/$0.8604/$0.8700/89/98/89/00/$0.8610.
10:16-10:29 began, on 10:16's 800 $0.8655/$0.8978/$0.862, a very low-volume rise through 10:23 to $0.8625/90 and then began a drop. B/a at 10:21 was 500:700 $0.8618/98. 10:26's 33.8K hit $0.8639/$0.8510 and the period ended on 10:29's 22.2K $0.8452/01/03.
10:30-10:44 began an extremely low/no-volume very small rise on 10:30's 8.9K $0.8405/$0.8566/$0.8412 and went sideways $0.8533/67. B/a at 10:31 was 400:400 $0.8406/$0.8569. The period ended on 10:44's 100 $0.856.
10:45-10:51 began a mixed-volume drop, heavy on the selling, on 10:45's 6.7K $0.856/$0.8401/29. B/a at 10:46 was 300:9.2K $0.8419/50. 10:48's 10.3K hit $0.8403/$0.8205/21 and the period ended on 10:51's 55.2K $0.8300/1/$0.8115/38.
10:52-11:32 began, on 10:52's 2.2K $0.83/$0.8251/98, a low/medium-volume sideways $0.82/$0.8346. B/a at 10:54 was 1.1K:600 $0.82/3. Sideways ended at 11:12. This was followed by a mostly low-volume rise, hitting 11:14's 8.3K $0.8389/06/$0.8440/$0.8378. B/a at 11:17 was 2.1K:400 $0.8319/$0.84 (bids rising). 11:28's 12K hit $0.8450/06/$0.8501, 11:29's 1.4K hit $0.8501/97/07, and the period ended on 11:32's 9.3K $0.8596/$0.8725/$0.8531.
11:33-12:18 began mostly low-volume, with several medium and high-volume minutes, $0.8529/$0.87 (one minute did $0.8725) on 11:33's 1.2K $0.8531/$0.87/$0.8532. B/a at 11:33 was 1.2K:1.3K $0.8531/$0.8699, 11:49 900:9.5K $0.8565/$0.86 (bids rising), 12:02 1K:200 $0.8649/50, 12:16 200:400 $0.8691/$0.87. The period ended on 12:18's 700 $0.8702/23.
12:19-13:10 did a drop on 12:19's 20.4K $0.8723/$0.8500/26 before beginning a extremely low/no-volume sideways $0.8600/49 and dropping again on 12:24's 2.7K $0.8597/99/10. That kicked off a mostly very low/no-volume climb. B/a at 12:33 was 502::200 $0.8571/2. 12:37's 800 hit $0.862/5. B/a at 12:48 700:1.5K $0.8609/50 (bids rising). 13:01's 400 hit $0.8657/72. B/a at 13:02 was 100:400 $0.8651/87, 13:17 300:1.7K $0.8690/$0.87. The period ended on 13:10's 1.1K $0.8683/4/3.
13:11-13:44 began very low-volume $0.8689/$0.87 on 13:11's 150 $0.872. B/a at 13:33 was 600:2.9K $0.8699/$87. Price and volume was interrupted by 13:39's 2.3K $0.8699/59/60. B/a at 13:42 was 500:1.2K $0.8667/99. The period ended on 13:44's 5.1K $0.8674.
13:45-15:00 began a long, very slow, mostly very low-volume flattish and decline sequence after a short rapid drop and bounce back on 13:45's 7.5K $0.8699/00, 13:46's b/a 200:2.9K $0.8572/$0.8699, 13:46's 5.5K $0.86/$0.8572, 13:47's 5.4K $0.8602/$0.8500/13, 15:48's 100 $0.8572, 13:49's 500 $0.867, and 13:50's 2.3K $0.8639/70. 13:52-14:04 did an extremely low/no-volume rise from $0.8551 to $0.86 and came back to go flat $0.8551 by 14:04. B/a at 14:01 was 900:1.7K $0.8579/$0.86 (bids falling), 14:17 1.8K:600 $0.8551/99. Volume and price was interrupted by 14:23's 4.3K $0.8555/99. 14:24-:25's 19K dropped from $0.8551 to $0.84, saw b/a at 14:31 of 1.1K:900 $0.8400/20, and went flattish $0.84xx through 14:34 before doing another drop on 14:35's 7K to $0.8400/1/$0.8335/7. Then a rise was done on 14:36-:38's 15.4K $0.8337->$0.855. That started another fall hitting 14:44's $0.85/$0.841, seeing 14:46's b/a 300:790 $0.8410/$0.8541, doing 14:50's 14.8K $0.84/8311/15, 14:52's 25.8K $0.8409/$0.836, 14:53's 38.1K $0.832/$0.815/7, and going sideways low/medium-volume $0.8151/$0.8329 to end the period on 15:00's 3.3K $0.8300/29/14.
15:01-15:20 began a very low-volume flattish $0.8250/$0.8315, with rising lows, after 15:01's 400 $0.83/$0.8223 and 15:02's11.3K$0.8223/$0.83/$0.9820. B/a at 15:02 was 200:300 $0.8223/27 (b/a falling). 15:07's 1.1K hit $0.8279/15. B/a at 15:17 was 200:100 $0.8314/16. The period ended on 15:20's 200 $0.8314.
15:21-15:45 began a mostly very low-volume decline, and recovery of about half the loss, after 15:21's 3.6K $0.8399/$0.8498. Range went to $0.8220/$0.8301 at 15:26. Volume was interrupted by 15:30's 11.8K $0.8300/1/$0.8220/4. Volume became mostly low volume. B/a at 15:31 was 200:300 $0.8240/$0.83. The period low was hit on 15:33's 1.9K $0.8221/0. Volume was again interrupted by 15:34's 13K $0.8220/$0.8496/$0.8301 and 15:35's 2.3K $0.83/$0.8220/1. That began the recovery on mostly medium-volume. Volume was interrupted by 15:38's 11.2K $0.8231/$0.8340/$0.8230/$0.8235. The recovery completed on 15:43's 2.1K $0.8319/60 and the period ended on 15:45's 2.9K $0.8340/00.
15:46-16:00 began a very flattish medium-volume $0.8300/11. B/a at 15:50 was 9.7K:200 $0.8310/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's 9.5K $0.8310/$0.823/$0.83 and 16:00's sell of 2,023 for $0.83.
There was one AH sell of 1K for $0.8011.
Including the opening trades (closing closing didn't qualify), there were 46 larger trades (>=5K & 14 4K+) totaling 339,039, 32.39% of day's volume, with a $0.8470 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 45 larger trades totaling 319,399, 30.51% of day's volume, with a $0.8468 VWAP. Even allowing for today's elevated trade volume, the count seems unusually high. The percentage of day's volume is higher than normal but considering what we have seen in the PRs, maybe it's not really out of line. It was aided by some "larger larger trades", as one could expect when we get a higher-volume price "pop". The day, swing and momo traders probably all hopped on the bandwagon.
The VWAPs were above the day's $0.8455. It could be it's due mostly to shorters covering if it weren't for the fact that every time we've seen strength to the upside it has met stout resistance, possibly mostly from shorters and maybe some short-term traders taking profits. Given that I don't see shorters getting panicked here and doing covering buys at elevated prices, that leaves me thinking mostly retail investors and/or short-term traders were paying these higher prices.
That reminds me - just as with yesterday, I believe the number of larger trades going off "behind the curtain" is likely masking the underlying shorting activity. Sans that consideration I would expect today's short percentage, below, to be high. With that consideration, not so much.
It sure didn't take long for the early enthusiasm to wane, judging by the buy percentage at 10:29, regardless that the VWAP held up reasonably well through that period. "Selling into strength" is how I assess it, again, and it seems supported by what happened subsequently during the day as buy percentage continued generally weakening, followed by VWAP. Needless to say, buy percentage doesn't suggest near-term strength is likely and VWAP suggests it's likely shorters and/or short-term traders taking profits are heavily in the market here.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:00 84587 $0.8200 $0.8500 $71,443.61 $0.8446 8.08% 61.51% Incl 09:30 $0.8500 19,640 $0.8496 4,000
09:30 5,000 $0.8401 09:46 $0.8475
09:59 $0.8426 4,000
10:15 90776 $0.8431 $0.8798 $77,628.42 $0.8552 8.67% 59.20% Incl 10:03 $0.8451 4,000 10:15 $0.8500 8,000
10:15 $0.8510 5,100 $0.8550 11,390
10:15 $0.8570 6,000 $0.8600 4,900
10:15 $0.8601 4,300
10:29 92241 $0.8401 $0.8798 $78,782.29 $0.8541 8.81% 42.41% Incl 10:24 $0.8646 5,500 10:26 $0.8600 5,000
10:26 $0.8600 5,602 10:28 $0.8410 5,000
10:29 $0.8401 11,000 $0.8405 8,000
10:44 22771 $0.8405 $0.8569 $19,333.51 $0.8490 2.18% 41.85%
10:51 78690 $0.8115 $0.8560 $64,584.83 $0.8208 7.52% 35.62% Incl 10:48 $0.8400 7,990 10:51 $0.8115 39,600
11:32 95974 $0.8200 $0.8725 $80,226.96 $0.8359 9.17% 39.12% Incl 10:53 $0.8400 6,169 10:55 $0.8250 5,163
11:28 $0.8450 9,000
12:18 102841 $0.8528 $0.8725 $89,008.90 $0.8655 9.82% 42.80% Incl 11:49 4,100 $0.8599 $0.8600
11:58 $0.8599 5,067 12:05 $0.8601 7,245
12:14 $0.8689 5,000 12:17 $0.8725 20,000
13:10 90200 $0.8500 $0.8723 $77,824.43 $0.8628 8.62% 41.09% Incl 12:19 $0.8700 4,000 5,000
12:45 $0.8600 4,600 12:49 $0.8650 5,000
13:05 $0.8660 5,897
13:44 40662 $0.8659 $0.8720 $35,357.72 $0.8696 3.88% 41.86% Incl 13:15 $0.8699 7,000 13:38 4,338
13:44 $0.8674 4,500
15:00 197171 $0.8150 $0.8699 $165,633.95 $0.8401 18.83% 34.63% Incl 13:45 $0.8600 4,079 14:03 $0.8576 5,000
14:29 $0.8401 5,349 14:38 $0.8460 5,000
14:52 $0.8400 21,800 14:53 $0.8300 6,210
15:20 23300 $0.8220 $0.8315 $19,315.43 $0.8290 2.23% 33.95% Incl 15:02 $0.8300 8,200
15:45 73185 $0.8220 $0.8498 $60,688.88 $0.8293 6.99% 32.27% Incl 15:30 $0.8301 4,100 4,100
16:00 47023 $0.8230 $0.8311 $39,053.10 $0.8305 4.49% 31.36%
18:31 1000 $0.8011 $0.8011 $801.10 $0.8011 0.10% 31.32%
Yesterday I noted here also, { This makes me think the "Three-day window" has returned, a good thing as that's more normal than what we had been seeing. I guess we got enough ... } The breakdown above, when compared to yesterday's reinforces that. However, the weakening in buy percentage seems a little early to me. We'll just have to wait and see if we get the third day or not.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:[pre[ __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 10.46% 6.29% 3.52% 1.97% 15.52%
Prior -1.35% 0.46% 6.22% 6.42% 206.13%There was a 1K AH trade for $0.8011. If that's used instead of the official $0.8115, the low movement becomes 4.92% instead of the 6.29% we got.
Contrary to what the intra-day breakdown suggests, these readings would make all the chartists quite enthusiastic. Only the close gives any hint that things may not be as rosy as the other metrics indicate. Regardless, I'm sticking to my guns with yesterday's { Price is not out of the woods yet, I think, as it'll take an actual positive quarterly report and CC, not just positive spin, to get the rest of the potential longs in and the shorters scattering for the hills. }
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is today's confirmation of a breakout signaled by yesterday's move and close above the medium-term descending resistance (red line) that had been defining the trend down and offering quite stiff resistance. It's also on rising volume, although not as much as I would have liked to see in the percentage of rise. That's in light of yesterday's 206% increase though. If yesterday's had been a smaller increase today's increase would look a lot more impressive. Maybe I'm nit-picking here.
Yesterday price finally escaped from the $0.80 flat resistance that had been holding for the highs. If there's any justice, and reliability, in the TA world that price is now supposed to become support. As many times as it was recently tested it ought to be fairly stout. Let's cross our fingers on that because, as mentioned, I think our "Three-day window" has returned and if that is the case we'll see weakening appear much sooner than the conventional TA would suggest.
Both the fast and slow EMAs are rising smartly and there is little likelihood of a negative cross appearing near-term.
We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit and closed above it again. As mentioned, out history is not good when pushing it. But for now it is what it is and everything else in the conventional TA world is suggesting upward strength. If only I hadn't gone down the road of looking at things from a different vantage-point I'd be happy as a pig in ... "mud" right now.
Discussing that yesterday, I wrapped up with { That would normally suggest a re-trace of price is becoming likely. I think it will, soon, but I think that will be forestalled by the presumed by me return of the "Three-day window". After that I expect a return to some kind of (new?) normal behavior and we'll have to wait to see what develops. } I'm hanging with that assessment for now. Probably end up with egg on my face. That's OK though - what's one more layer on top of the others?
The band still has a rising mid-point though as the upper limit is rising much faster than the lower limit is descending.
Yesterday I noted { There is one disturbing negative - our close was below the old $0.82/3 that we hit in a past attempt to rise. That prior one was only one recent test, so we don't know how strong it will be. I suspect it will hold, near-term, since it's looking very much like our "Three-day window" may be back, based on today's behavior.
Well, we closed at $0.83, so for now resistance is holding. Entering the third day of our "Three-day window" tomorrow, which generally starts showing weakness (although, as mentioned, I think today has begun showing that) I don't see good odds that we'll break above it and hold.
On my one-year chart yesterday's price range was almost completely above the descending resistance. It's hard to tell precisely, but today it looks like we closed above it again and a breakout was confirmed.
As with yesterday, { I'll wait for some stability to return before resuming discussion of the moving averages' expected behavior. For now, based on what they were doing vs. the current price behavior, we can presume that most/all will be rising for a bit,but for the 200-day SMA. A quick peek at the chart has confirmed this. They are in order too, but for the 200-day. } Today however the 50-day barely squeaked out a rise. If we hold here, tomorrow would see the 50-day weaken, breaking the trend.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every oscillator. Below neutral are accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. Everything else is above neutral. Only MFI (untrusted by me) is overbought and RSI is quite near that. Williams %R is approaching it but has a bit more to go.
Today had weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. These three, especially accumulation/distribution, switching from yesterday's improving suggests that my assessment about selling into strength may be spot-on. "Distribution" at "elevated" prices would make sense for short-term traders, warrant-holders (that occurred to me while pondering the the volume changes seen) and any retailers that had been holding at/near these prices and had become discouraged.
Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral while all others are above neutral. RSI and MFI are just below overbought. Nothing is oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7345 and $0.8220 ($0.7416 and $0.8057 yesterday), continued diverging with a rising mid-point as the upper limit is rising faster than the lower limit is declining.
All in, we have some mixed signals in the above with most of the conventional TA suggesting more near-term up-side is most likely and my unconventional stuff (intra-day observation and breakdown) doubting that scenario. Here I'll go with my unconventional stuff and say the move up is now weak(ening) and the best I can see is going sideways. The more likely, I think, is price weakening beginning another move back below the resistances we so recently broke above. The caveat on that is that it's very short-term and we might quickly see more PRs that might prevent that.
My TFH has been especially active and believes the PRs were timed to support the financiers (2nd or 3rd-tier - an especially vile group) that hold the warrants for shares.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but keep in mind my belief that the true underlying shorting behavior is being masked by the larger trades. If the larger trades' percentage of day's volume had been more normal I think the short percentage would be quite a bit higher.
I could be all wrong about that though.
The buy percentage dropped from yesterday's "no man's land" to near-term bearish territory again. One would think that promises of cost-cutting, several recent larger order PRs, ... could have a longer-term effect on price here. I guess it shows just how jaded "the market" has become about $CPST.
The spread contracted but is still quite large, suggesting that near-term movement is likely to continue.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements improved for the second day, now 11 negatives and 13 positives. Change since 03/08 is $0.1310, 18.33%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.7302%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, and 0.1960%. Absent the string or PRs I would see the recent changes in the 24-period rolling averages behavior as quite positive. Given the PRs, my cynical side says "wait a bit - it'll get back to normal".
All in, regardless of my distrust of the short percentage for the moment, I have to go all negative due to the combination of buy percentage, spread and volume rise on an "up" day seeming to be slowing. If I suspend my distrust of the short percentage the fact that it's well below what I think is normal (needs re-check) is a non-positive indicator.
Bill
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