Wednesday, April 12, 2017 11:52:46 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/10 2017 EOD
There was a C600S sale PR for a small Mali village.
Everything, except the ending buy percentage in my unconventional stuff, is suggesting near-term up-side. My view of the intra-day behavior makes me think the "Three-day window" is back, meaning that I won't be looking for solid indications of coming behavior until 11/13 or later as whatever the new normal behavior should start to become apparent.
I presume this was a rational response to today's PR after quite a few others recently. This is a decided change from what has been observed over the last year or two.
It looks like we may be moving towards a normal market again.
Today's combination of volume and price movement should trigger the volume/price alerts for the frequent trader crowd.
Today was a continuous series of up, flat, up, flat, ... until the last hour of the day, which ruined the buy percentage by doing the all-too-common late-day weakness routine.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a had offers declining and just before open was 400:500 $0.7416/$0.7643.
09:30-10:16 opened the day with a 1,496 buy for $0.7695 & $0.7642 x 100 x 3. B/a just after open was 372:500 $0.7600/43. Then came 9:31's 5.8K $0.7635 (5K)/43/$0.7800/97/99, 9:32's 400 $0.7899, 9:33's 300 $0.7899, 9:34's 300 $0.7800/99, 9:34's 300:800 $0.7701/$0.7899, 9:35's 400 $0.7899/8/$0.7701, 9:36's 400 $0.7898/$0.7701, 9:37's 500 $0.7898/$0.7701, 9:38's 300 $0.7898, 9:39's b/a 800:200 $0.7701/$0.7898, 9:39's 40.4K (incl 40K $0.7701 blk) $0.7898/$0.7701/$0.7898, 9:40's 5K $0.7898 (300)/$0.7701/03/01/00, 9:41's 1.6K $0.7698/$0.77/$0.7699, 9:42's 600 $0.77, 9:43's 300 $0.77, 9:440's 300 $0.77, 9:45's 19.9K $0.7700 (incl 14.6K blk)/01/97/$0.7786/$0.7781/$0.7850, 9:46 300 $0.7780/$0.7859, 9:47's 300 $0.7858, 9:48's 300 $0.7858/80/92, 9:49's 300 $0.7885/48/85, 9:50's 300 $0.7896, 9:51's 400 $0.7896/08, 9:52's b/a 200:300 $0.7806/96, 9:52's 300 $0.7896/51/96, 9:53's 1.5K $0.7896/50/08/52, 9:54's 200 $0.7853/96, 9:55's b/a 3.4K:300 $0.7815/96, 9:55's 200 $0.7855/56, 9:56's 300 $0.7896/56, 9:57's 600 $0.7859/60/57/60/61, 9:58's 300 $0.7861/2, 9:59's 400 $0.7863/32/64/65, 10:00's b/a 2.1K:800 $0.7838/93, 10:00's 3.4K $0.7685/6/50/51/50/$0.7707/04, 10:01's 900 $0.7850/51/50, 10:02's 3.7K $0.7846/45/$0.7707/13/07/01/07, 10:03's 100 $0.7707, 10:04's b/a 300:500 $0.7730/$0.7849, 10:05's 300 $0.7731/90/$0.7848, 10:06's 300 $0.7849, 10:07's 200 $0.7790, 10:08's 300 $0.7790, 10:09's 400 $0.7845/$0.7790/$0.7845/6, 10:10's b/a 600:500 $0.7730/$0.7849, 10:10's 300 $0.7846/01/03, 10:11's 1.4K $0.7803/$0.7756/$0.78/$0.7765/53/98, 10:12's 1K $0.7836/$0.7765/$0.7798/$0.7811/$0.7782/$0.7812, 10:13's 200 $0.7813/4, 10:14's 3.8K $0.7815/$0.7789/90/87/81/71, 10:15's b/a 800:300 $0.7775/$0.7840, and the period ended on 10:16's 2.5K $0.7783/2
10:17-10:52, after an initial drop on 10:17's 2.2K $0.7785/84/70/30, 10:18's 100 $0.7703 and 10:20's 1.2K $0.7727/20/04, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7734/90 with rising lows on 10:21's 100 $0.7705. B/a at 10:22 was 100:300 $0.7712/98, 10:33 1.3K:300 $0.7756/98 (bids rising). Price was interrupted by 10:40's 1.5K $0.7790/03. B/a at 10:42 was 2.2K:200 $0.7709/60 (bids rising), 10:47 2.2K:600 $0.7733/96 (bids rising). The period ended on 10:52's 200 $0.7797.
10:53-11:08 began an extremely low/no-volume climb after 10:53's 400 $0.7850 and 10:54's 6K $0.7852/08/06/08/06/07. B/a at 10:57 was 1.2K:200 $0.7819/40 (bids rising). 10:59's 1.2K hit $0.7840/99. Volume was interrupted by 11:05's 6.8K $0.7900/49/73/90 and the period ended with 11:06-11:08's short high-volume, mostly, vacillation from a low of $0.77 to a high of $0.7997 on 11:06's 16.1K $0.7990/93/97/92/93/95/93/92/93/92/94/93/94/97/95/92/87/$0.7841/$0.7714/00/$0.7841/$0.7702/$0.7841, 11:07's 4.7K $0.7841/$0.7702/01/$0.7793/$0.7705/7 and 11:08's 2.5K /$0.7980/$0.7711.
11:09-11:25, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.78/$0.7980 on 11:13's 200 $0.7800/91. B/a at 11:14 was 200:700 $0.78/$0.7981, 11:18 600:400 $0.7800/$0.7981, 11:32900:1.1K $0.7800/99. The period ended on 11:25's 900 $0.7886/$0.7901.
11:26-12:08 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7800/$0.7915 on 11:26's 11K $0.7898/$0.7981/34/$0.7886/50/00/$0.7750/$0.7910/$0.7750/01/24/10/24/30. B/a at 11:57 was 700:200 $0.7879/$0.7950, 12:01 400:200 $0.7879/$0.7950. 12:05 1.2K:300 $0.7800/50. The period ended on 12:08's 200 $0.7850/90.
12:09-12:41 began a mostly extremely low/no-volume climb from $0.7801/$0.7996 on 12:09's 600 $0.789.$0.7929. 12:12 500:400 $0.7894/$0.7995. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:15's 30.6K $0.7867/$0.7999. Price was interrupted by 12:21's 1K $0.7825/$0.7980. B/a at 12:22 was 900:200 $0.7803/$0.79. 12:39's 15.2K hit $0.7993/$0.80. The period ended on 12:41's 8.9K $0.7997/$0.80.
12:42-13:02 began an extremely low/no-volume sideways $0.7900/6 after 12:42's 11.7K $0.80/$0.7801/$0.785 and 12:44-:51's low/medium-volume push up from $0.7801 to $0.7970. B/a at 13:02 was 800:1.6K $0.7959/72 (offers falling). The period ended on 13:02's 200 $0.796.
13:03-13:57 began an extremely low/no-volume, through 13:11 and then low/medium-volume, climb on 13:03's 1.8K $0.7959/70. 13:13 hit$0.8049. B/a at 13:18 600:3.9K $0.8999/$0.8040. 13:29 hit $0.8071/$0.82. B/a at 13:32 was 400:9.9K $0.8090/$0.81. 13:37 hit $0.8093/$0.8199. B/a at 13:46 was 5K:900 $0.8230/35. The period ended on 13:57's 900 $0.8234/99.
13:58-14:29 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8230/$0.8370 on 13:58's 14.1K $0.8268/$0.8370/00. B/a at 13:59 was 1.5K:10.2K $0.8360/$0.8370, 14:18 4.5K:1.1K $0.8230/$0.8364. The period ended on 14:29's 200 $0.8335.
14:30-14:44 began mostly medium/higher-volume $0.8370/$0.8451, with a rise near period end, on 14:30's 40.8K $0.8370/02/70/99/84/70/73/71/99/$0.8400. B/a at 14:31 was 1.2K:700 $0.8375/$0.8449, 14:39 8.1K:16.4K $0.8370/$0.85. 14:43's 2.3K did $0.8450/98 and the period ended on 14:44's 400 $0.845.
14:45-15:05 began a mixed low/high-volume (mostly low) sag lower on 14:45's 13.4K $0.8450/99/$0.837. B/a at 14:47 was 3.6K:200 $0.8300/70. 15:00's 10K hit $0.83/$0.8143/9. B/a at 15:01 was 700:300 $0.8145/$0.8231. The period ended on 15:05's 2.4K $0.8200/31.
15:06-15:15 began bounce up and then back down, with mostly low volume, on 15:06's 1K $0.8201/$0.8384/$0.8201. B/a at 15:10 was 200:400 $0.8300/99. Volume was interrupted by 15:11's 57.8K $0.82/$0.8345. The period ended on 15:15's 16.6K $0.8143/$0.82.
15:16-15:45, after doing a low/medium-volume rise from 15:16's 2.7K $0.8100/1/0 to 15:25's $0.8273 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8140/$0.8299, with slowly rising lows. B/a at 15:17 was 1K:400 $0.81/$0.8299, 15:32 400:700 $0.8139/$0.8299. The period ended on 15:44's 100 $0.8270
15:46-16:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8138/$0.8229, but with a rise into the close, on 15:47's 900 $0.8297/$0.8162. B/a at 15:47 was 100:800 $0.8161/97. The period and day ended on 15:59's3.2K $0.8141/0/$0.8280/$0.8239 and 16:00's 600 sell for $0.8140.
There was one AH trade: 16:01 100 $0.8278.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 39 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 359,396, 39.66% of day's volume, with a $0.8137 VWAP. For the volume, the count is certainly reasonable and the percentage of day's volume is high, as I suspect would be normal for bullish sentiment that brings in a combination of retails longs, day traders and momo traders and maybe some hedge fund and/or institutionals. The 900K+ volume, highest since 1/31's ~1.1K, suggests at least the traders.
The VWAP is above the day's $0.8114, also suggesting a mix of retail and various trader types. Note in the breakdown below we had a large number of "larger larger trades", accounting for the percentage of day's volume being high. Since many of these go off "behind the curtain" (intra/inter-broker) and generally don't generate as many short sales as normal trades involving MMs, we may have a higher actual short percentage than what will appear (I haven't looked yet) below.
Note also where most of the larger trades came - at higher VWAPs and continued to be fairly strong even as buy percentage was on the decline.
This makes me think the "Three-day window" has returned, a good thing as that's more normal than what we had been seeing. I guess we got enough order PRs to finally convince some part of the potential market that fundamentals are likely to report better.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart all of the weakness suggested recently was negated by today's response (apparently) to the PR. I had said { ... we made our first close below the very short-term rising support (rising green line). If we close below tomorrow a breakdown is confirmed. With a slope of $0.00375/day, estimated line value tomorrow is ~$0.7775, let's call it $0.78. Since the medium-term descending resistance, descending red line, has been pressuring the highs quite reliably, we can anticipate that will continue. ... So unless we get a breakout upward we can count on a break down coming. The MMs will not be denied, sans strong market sentiment.}
The most significant thing is the move and close above the medium-term descending resistance (red line) that had been defining the trend down, offering quite stiff resistance. If we close above it again tomorrow we have a confirmed breakout per conventional TA.
We finally escaped from the $0.80 flat resistance we had been holding for the highs.
Yesterday the fast EMA gave up the ghost and began falling again. Today reversed that and it rose from yesterday's $0.7749 to $0.7939, quite a jump, and is well above the slow EMA's also-rising $0.7748. For now the risk of a negative cross seems off the table.
I ha mentioned we had been pushing the upper limit of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and the results of that were generally not positive. Well, apparently the PR took care of that as we are still pushing it (and actually closed above it's $0.8057. That would normally suggest a re-trace of price is becoming likely. I think it will, soon, but I think that will be forestalled by the presumed by me return of the "Three-day window". After that I expect a return to some kind of (new?) normal behavior and we'll have to wait to see what develops.
Note that we have a rising mid-point as the upper limit is rising much faster than the lower limit is (now) descending.
Our low penetrated the ascending short-term support, the rising green line, but was just an effect of the low opening period. Other than that we moved well above it for the rest of the day.
There is one disturbing negative - our close was below the old $0.82/3 that we hit in a past attempt to rise. That prior one was only one recent test, so we don't know how strong it will be. I suspect it will hold, near-term, since it's looking very much like our "Three-day window" may be back, based on today's behavior.
On my one-year chart our highs had continued to be limited by the new medium-term descending resistance described two days back. Today's price range was almost completely above the descending resistance. If we close above tomorrow, a breakout is confirmed.
I'll wait for some stability to return before resuming discussion of the moving averages' expected behavior. For now, based on what they were doing vs. the current price behavior, we can presume that most/all will be rising for a bit,but for the 200-day SMA. A quick peek at the chart has confirmed this. They are in order too, but for the 200-day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in full stochastic. Only momentum and MFI were above neutral and the rest were below neutral. Nothing was oversold.
Today had improvement in every oscillator. Below neutral are accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. Everything else is above neutral. Only MFI (untrusted by me) is overbought and RSI is quite near that. Williams %R is approaching it but has a bit more to go.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7416 and $0.8057 ($0.7468 and $0.7922 yesterday), stopped converging with a falling mid-point and began diverging with a rising mid-point.
All in, everything is coming up roses, including, if I'm right, the return of the "Three-day window". This would suggest a return to normalcy and more market awareness, which must be better than the apathy we apparently had before. Longer-term this will make forecasts a bit more reliable, especially if the volume can maintain a better level than had been the recent case. We'll still have to watch out for shorters until some (one?) quarterly report that shows really good results and not just "positive spin".
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normal, and the short percentage is well below my desired range, but the real percentage may be masked by the very high percentage of larger trades that likely had a lot of inter/intra-broker trades which generally generate few short sales flags.
The buy percentage, although much improved, is still in the "no man's land" that gives no clue as to near-term direction of price movement.
The spread is quite large and was produced by a near-constant rise, flat, rise, flat, ... until the last hour in the day. This suggests likely continued movement and likely to the up-side.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, improved from 13 negatives and 11 positives to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 03/07 is $0.0820, 11.24%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960% and 0.0971%.
All in, making an allowance for the larger trades possible effect on the presented short percentage and assuming it's somewhere up in my normal range, we have a short percentage, spread and rolling VWAP movement averages going in the right direction. since the buy percentage offers no help I would have to go with near-term is most likely up.
Bill
There was a C600S sale PR for a small Mali village.
Everything, except the ending buy percentage in my unconventional stuff, is suggesting near-term up-side. My view of the intra-day behavior makes me think the "Three-day window" is back, meaning that I won't be looking for solid indications of coming behavior until 11/13 or later as whatever the new normal behavior should start to become apparent.
I presume this was a rational response to today's PR after quite a few others recently. This is a decided change from what has been observed over the last year or two.
It looks like we may be moving towards a normal market again.
Today's combination of volume and price movement should trigger the volume/price alerts for the frequent trader crowd.
Today was a continuous series of up, flat, up, flat, ... until the last hour of the day, which ruined the buy percentage by doing the all-too-common late-day weakness routine.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a had offers declining and just before open was 400:500 $0.7416/$0.7643.
09:30-10:16 opened the day with a 1,496 buy for $0.7695 & $0.7642 x 100 x 3. B/a just after open was 372:500 $0.7600/43. Then came 9:31's 5.8K $0.7635 (5K)/43/$0.7800/97/99, 9:32's 400 $0.7899, 9:33's 300 $0.7899, 9:34's 300 $0.7800/99, 9:34's 300:800 $0.7701/$0.7899, 9:35's 400 $0.7899/8/$0.7701, 9:36's 400 $0.7898/$0.7701, 9:37's 500 $0.7898/$0.7701, 9:38's 300 $0.7898, 9:39's b/a 800:200 $0.7701/$0.7898, 9:39's 40.4K (incl 40K $0.7701 blk) $0.7898/$0.7701/$0.7898, 9:40's 5K $0.7898 (300)/$0.7701/03/01/00, 9:41's 1.6K $0.7698/$0.77/$0.7699, 9:42's 600 $0.77, 9:43's 300 $0.77, 9:440's 300 $0.77, 9:45's 19.9K $0.7700 (incl 14.6K blk)/01/97/$0.7786/$0.7781/$0.7850, 9:46 300 $0.7780/$0.7859, 9:47's 300 $0.7858, 9:48's 300 $0.7858/80/92, 9:49's 300 $0.7885/48/85, 9:50's 300 $0.7896, 9:51's 400 $0.7896/08, 9:52's b/a 200:300 $0.7806/96, 9:52's 300 $0.7896/51/96, 9:53's 1.5K $0.7896/50/08/52, 9:54's 200 $0.7853/96, 9:55's b/a 3.4K:300 $0.7815/96, 9:55's 200 $0.7855/56, 9:56's 300 $0.7896/56, 9:57's 600 $0.7859/60/57/60/61, 9:58's 300 $0.7861/2, 9:59's 400 $0.7863/32/64/65, 10:00's b/a 2.1K:800 $0.7838/93, 10:00's 3.4K $0.7685/6/50/51/50/$0.7707/04, 10:01's 900 $0.7850/51/50, 10:02's 3.7K $0.7846/45/$0.7707/13/07/01/07, 10:03's 100 $0.7707, 10:04's b/a 300:500 $0.7730/$0.7849, 10:05's 300 $0.7731/90/$0.7848, 10:06's 300 $0.7849, 10:07's 200 $0.7790, 10:08's 300 $0.7790, 10:09's 400 $0.7845/$0.7790/$0.7845/6, 10:10's b/a 600:500 $0.7730/$0.7849, 10:10's 300 $0.7846/01/03, 10:11's 1.4K $0.7803/$0.7756/$0.78/$0.7765/53/98, 10:12's 1K $0.7836/$0.7765/$0.7798/$0.7811/$0.7782/$0.7812, 10:13's 200 $0.7813/4, 10:14's 3.8K $0.7815/$0.7789/90/87/81/71, 10:15's b/a 800:300 $0.7775/$0.7840, and the period ended on 10:16's 2.5K $0.7783/2
10:17-10:52, after an initial drop on 10:17's 2.2K $0.7785/84/70/30, 10:18's 100 $0.7703 and 10:20's 1.2K $0.7727/20/04, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7734/90 with rising lows on 10:21's 100 $0.7705. B/a at 10:22 was 100:300 $0.7712/98, 10:33 1.3K:300 $0.7756/98 (bids rising). Price was interrupted by 10:40's 1.5K $0.7790/03. B/a at 10:42 was 2.2K:200 $0.7709/60 (bids rising), 10:47 2.2K:600 $0.7733/96 (bids rising). The period ended on 10:52's 200 $0.7797.
10:53-11:08 began an extremely low/no-volume climb after 10:53's 400 $0.7850 and 10:54's 6K $0.7852/08/06/08/06/07. B/a at 10:57 was 1.2K:200 $0.7819/40 (bids rising). 10:59's 1.2K hit $0.7840/99. Volume was interrupted by 11:05's 6.8K $0.7900/49/73/90 and the period ended with 11:06-11:08's short high-volume, mostly, vacillation from a low of $0.77 to a high of $0.7997 on 11:06's 16.1K $0.7990/93/97/92/93/95/93/92/93/92/94/93/94/97/95/92/87/$0.7841/$0.7714/00/$0.7841/$0.7702/$0.7841, 11:07's 4.7K $0.7841/$0.7702/01/$0.7793/$0.7705/7 and 11:08's 2.5K /$0.7980/$0.7711.
11:09-11:25, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.78/$0.7980 on 11:13's 200 $0.7800/91. B/a at 11:14 was 200:700 $0.78/$0.7981, 11:18 600:400 $0.7800/$0.7981, 11:32900:1.1K $0.7800/99. The period ended on 11:25's 900 $0.7886/$0.7901.
11:26-12:08 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7800/$0.7915 on 11:26's 11K $0.7898/$0.7981/34/$0.7886/50/00/$0.7750/$0.7910/$0.7750/01/24/10/24/30. B/a at 11:57 was 700:200 $0.7879/$0.7950, 12:01 400:200 $0.7879/$0.7950. 12:05 1.2K:300 $0.7800/50. The period ended on 12:08's 200 $0.7850/90.
12:09-12:41 began a mostly extremely low/no-volume climb from $0.7801/$0.7996 on 12:09's 600 $0.789.$0.7929. 12:12 500:400 $0.7894/$0.7995. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:15's 30.6K $0.7867/$0.7999. Price was interrupted by 12:21's 1K $0.7825/$0.7980. B/a at 12:22 was 900:200 $0.7803/$0.79. 12:39's 15.2K hit $0.7993/$0.80. The period ended on 12:41's 8.9K $0.7997/$0.80.
12:42-13:02 began an extremely low/no-volume sideways $0.7900/6 after 12:42's 11.7K $0.80/$0.7801/$0.785 and 12:44-:51's low/medium-volume push up from $0.7801 to $0.7970. B/a at 13:02 was 800:1.6K $0.7959/72 (offers falling). The period ended on 13:02's 200 $0.796.
13:03-13:57 began an extremely low/no-volume, through 13:11 and then low/medium-volume, climb on 13:03's 1.8K $0.7959/70. 13:13 hit$0.8049. B/a at 13:18 600:3.9K $0.8999/$0.8040. 13:29 hit $0.8071/$0.82. B/a at 13:32 was 400:9.9K $0.8090/$0.81. 13:37 hit $0.8093/$0.8199. B/a at 13:46 was 5K:900 $0.8230/35. The period ended on 13:57's 900 $0.8234/99.
13:58-14:29 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8230/$0.8370 on 13:58's 14.1K $0.8268/$0.8370/00. B/a at 13:59 was 1.5K:10.2K $0.8360/$0.8370, 14:18 4.5K:1.1K $0.8230/$0.8364. The period ended on 14:29's 200 $0.8335.
14:30-14:44 began mostly medium/higher-volume $0.8370/$0.8451, with a rise near period end, on 14:30's 40.8K $0.8370/02/70/99/84/70/73/71/99/$0.8400. B/a at 14:31 was 1.2K:700 $0.8375/$0.8449, 14:39 8.1K:16.4K $0.8370/$0.85. 14:43's 2.3K did $0.8450/98 and the period ended on 14:44's 400 $0.845.
14:45-15:05 began a mixed low/high-volume (mostly low) sag lower on 14:45's 13.4K $0.8450/99/$0.837. B/a at 14:47 was 3.6K:200 $0.8300/70. 15:00's 10K hit $0.83/$0.8143/9. B/a at 15:01 was 700:300 $0.8145/$0.8231. The period ended on 15:05's 2.4K $0.8200/31.
15:06-15:15 began bounce up and then back down, with mostly low volume, on 15:06's 1K $0.8201/$0.8384/$0.8201. B/a at 15:10 was 200:400 $0.8300/99. Volume was interrupted by 15:11's 57.8K $0.82/$0.8345. The period ended on 15:15's 16.6K $0.8143/$0.82.
15:16-15:45, after doing a low/medium-volume rise from 15:16's 2.7K $0.8100/1/0 to 15:25's $0.8273 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8140/$0.8299, with slowly rising lows. B/a at 15:17 was 1K:400 $0.81/$0.8299, 15:32 400:700 $0.8139/$0.8299. The period ended on 15:44's 100 $0.8270
15:46-16:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8138/$0.8229, but with a rise into the close, on 15:47's 900 $0.8297/$0.8162. B/a at 15:47 was 100:800 $0.8161/97. The period and day ended on 15:59's3.2K $0.8141/0/$0.8280/$0.8239 and 16:00's 600 sell for $0.8140.
There was one AH trade: 16:01 100 $0.8278.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 39 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 359,396, 39.66% of day's volume, with a $0.8137 VWAP. For the volume, the count is certainly reasonable and the percentage of day's volume is high, as I suspect would be normal for bullish sentiment that brings in a combination of retails longs, day traders and momo traders and maybe some hedge fund and/or institutionals. The 900K+ volume, highest since 1/31's ~1.1K, suggests at least the traders.
The VWAP is above the day's $0.8114, also suggesting a mix of retail and various trader types. Note in the breakdown below we had a large number of "larger larger trades", accounting for the percentage of day's volume being high. Since many of these go off "behind the curtain" (intra/inter-broker) and generally don't generate as many short sales as normal trades involving MMs, we may have a higher actual short percentage than what will appear (I haven't looked yet) below.
Note the disconnect between VWAP and buy percentage. It seems that "sell into strength" is the order of the day as VWAP was nothing but up through 14:44 and even after that held up quite well. Buy percentage was rising through the 13:57 period but only peaked at "neutral" before starting a decline that lasted the rest of the day. Neutral is not bad, suggesting the selling was generally matched by offsetting buys and since VWAP was on the move higher suggests a lot of bullish sentiment was present. The sag in buy percentage later in the day was likely the result of day/momo traders closing their short-term long positions.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:16 102866 $0.7635 $0.7899 $79,515.92 $0.7730 11.35% 32.43% Incl 09:31 $0.7635 5,000 09:39 $0.7701 40,000
09:45 $0.7700 14,630
10:52 11245 $0.7703 $0.7797 $8,740.33 $0.7773 1.24% 33.99%
11:08 44488 $0.7700 $0.7997 $35,196.84 $0.7912 4.91% 41.60% Incl 10:54 $0.7856 5,000 11:05 $0.7900 5,000
11:06 $0.7997 8,800
11:25 14401 $0.7800 $0.7980 $11,398.32 $0.7915 1.59% 40.72%
12:08 26841 $0.7701 $0.7981 $21,152.36 $0.7881 2.96% 40.52%
12:41 84895 $0.7801 $0.8000 $67,632.58 $0.7967 9.37% 49.27% Incl 12:15 $0.7999 17,100 12:33 $0.7996 6,000
12:41 $0.7999 5,000
13:02 32938 $0.7801 $0.8000 $26,084.99 $0.7919 3.63% 45.73%
13:57 194828 $0.7959 $0.8300 $158,494.50 $0.8135 21.50% 50.60% Incl 13:12 $0.8000 5,050 13:19 $0.8039 9,000
13:31 $0.8091 5,200 13:35 $0.8090 12,953
13:37 $0.8100 5,000 13:39 $0.8220 12,000
13:47 $0.8235 10,290 $0.8270 7,000
13:55 $0.8300 5,100
14:29 59932 $0.8230 $0.8370 $49,833.72 $0.8315 6.61% 49.39% Incl 13:58 $0.8300 5,000 14:02 $0.8302 5,000
14:03 $0.8368 4,000 14:10 $0.8300 5,200
14:44 111863 $0.8302 $0.8498 $93,997.76 $0.8403 12.34% 49.41% Incl 14:30 $0.8370 10,371 $0.8399 12,899
14:31 $0.8371 5,000 14:34 $0.8430 4,721
14:35 $0.8400 8,900 14:39 $0.8450 6,350
15:05 77180 $0.8143 $0.8499 $64,164.22 $0.8314 8.52% 44.87% Incl 14:45 $0.8450 6,800 14:46 $0.8370 6,818
14:46 $0.8300 5,382 14:58 $0.8302 9,900
14:59 $0.8300 8,707
15:15 80505 $0.8143 $0.8384 $66,549.71 $0.8267 8.88% 45.82% Incl 15:11 $0.8300 43,190 $0.8200 5,200
15:15 $0.8200 12,635
15:44 42559 $0.8100 $0.8299 $34,826.17 $0.8183 4.70% 45.40% Incl 15:20 $0.8198 6,000 15:22 $0.8132 5,000
15:42 $0.8299 4,200
16:00 16643 $0.8138 $0.8297 $13,650.43 $0.8202 1.84% 44.86%
16:01 100 $0.8278 $0.8278 $82.78 $0.8278 0.01% 44.86%
Note also where most of the larger trades came - at higher VWAPs and continued to be fairly strong even as buy percentage was on the decline.
This makes me think the "Three-day window" has returned, a good thing as that's more normal than what we had been seeing. I guess we got enough order PRs to finally convince some part of the potential market that fundamentals are likely to report better.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Considering the open, the moves today are very positive, especially in light of rising, and relatively very high volume. This all suggests good bullish sentiment and, IMO, marks a return of good interest in this stock after a couple years of total apathy. DJ finally got the message and began cost cutting and now the order frequency and size is apparently on the upswing. Price is not out of the woods yet, I think, as it'll take an actual positive quarterly report and CC, not just positive spin, to get the rest of the potential longs in and the rest of the shorters scattering for the hills.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.35% 0.46% 6.22% 6.42% 206.13%
Prior 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% -4.39% -27.83%
On my minimal chart all of the weakness suggested recently was negated by today's response (apparently) to the PR. I had said { ... we made our first close below the very short-term rising support (rising green line). If we close below tomorrow a breakdown is confirmed. With a slope of $0.00375/day, estimated line value tomorrow is ~$0.7775, let's call it $0.78. Since the medium-term descending resistance, descending red line, has been pressuring the highs quite reliably, we can anticipate that will continue. ... So unless we get a breakout upward we can count on a break down coming. The MMs will not be denied, sans strong market sentiment.}
The most significant thing is the move and close above the medium-term descending resistance (red line) that had been defining the trend down, offering quite stiff resistance. If we close above it again tomorrow we have a confirmed breakout per conventional TA.
We finally escaped from the $0.80 flat resistance we had been holding for the highs.
Yesterday the fast EMA gave up the ghost and began falling again. Today reversed that and it rose from yesterday's $0.7749 to $0.7939, quite a jump, and is well above the slow EMA's also-rising $0.7748. For now the risk of a negative cross seems off the table.
I ha mentioned we had been pushing the upper limit of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and the results of that were generally not positive. Well, apparently the PR took care of that as we are still pushing it (and actually closed above it's $0.8057. That would normally suggest a re-trace of price is becoming likely. I think it will, soon, but I think that will be forestalled by the presumed by me return of the "Three-day window". After that I expect a return to some kind of (new?) normal behavior and we'll have to wait to see what develops.
Note that we have a rising mid-point as the upper limit is rising much faster than the lower limit is (now) descending.
Our low penetrated the ascending short-term support, the rising green line, but was just an effect of the low opening period. Other than that we moved well above it for the rest of the day.
There is one disturbing negative - our close was below the old $0.82/3 that we hit in a past attempt to rise. That prior one was only one recent test, so we don't know how strong it will be. I suspect it will hold, near-term, since it's looking very much like our "Three-day window" may be back, based on today's behavior.
On my one-year chart our highs had continued to be limited by the new medium-term descending resistance described two days back. Today's price range was almost completely above the descending resistance. If we close above tomorrow, a breakout is confirmed.
I'll wait for some stability to return before resuming discussion of the moving averages' expected behavior. For now, based on what they were doing vs. the current price behavior, we can presume that most/all will be rising for a bit,but for the 200-day SMA. A quick peek at the chart has confirmed this. They are in order too, but for the 200-day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in full stochastic. Only momentum and MFI were above neutral and the rest were below neutral. Nothing was oversold.
Today had improvement in every oscillator. Below neutral are accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. Everything else is above neutral. Only MFI (untrusted by me) is overbought and RSI is quite near that. Williams %R is approaching it but has a bit more to go.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7416 and $0.8057 ($0.7468 and $0.7922 yesterday), stopped converging with a falling mid-point and began diverging with a rising mid-point.
All in, everything is coming up roses, including, if I'm right, the return of the "Three-day window". This would suggest a return to normalcy and more market awareness, which must be better than the apathy we apparently had before. Longer-term this will make forecasts a bit more reliable, especially if the volume can maintain a better level than had been the recent case. We'll still have to watch out for shorters until some (one?) quarterly report that shows really good results and not just "positive spin".
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normal, and the short percentage is well below my desired range, but the real percentage may be masked by the very high percentage of larger trades that likely had a lot of inter/intra-broker trades which generally generate few short sales flags.
The buy percentage, although much improved, is still in the "no man's land" that gives no clue as to near-term direction of price movement.
The spread is quite large and was produced by a near-constant rise, flat, rise, flat, ... until the last hour in the day. This suggests likely continued movement and likely to the up-side.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, improved from 13 negatives and 11 positives to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 03/07 is $0.0820, 11.24%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960% and 0.0971%.
All in, making an allowance for the larger trades possible effect on the presented short percentage and assuming it's somewhere up in my normal range, we have a short percentage, spread and rolling VWAP movement averages going in the right direction. since the buy percentage offers no help I would have to go with near-term is most likely up.
Bill
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