Monday, April 10, 2017 8:47:34 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/07 2017 EOD
Nothing suggests a positive bias right now. Everything does suggest a negative bias. The conventional TA oscillators going all negative, but for full stochastic, with nothing oversold, and the close below the minimal chart's rising short-term support (rising green line) while the highs are being limited by the medium-term descending resistance (falling red line) complete the conventional suggestion of a negative near-term move as being most likely.
My unconventional stuff, including the intra-day breakdown and the percentages for short sales and buys, support this.
Today was quite flattish from ~11:50 through ~14:56. Prior to that was the typical open high, drop, flattish and recover. Subsequent to ~14:56 was a sag lower to set the days low and close just above there. All was generally extremely low-volume with the usual interruptions.
There was one pre-market trade, a 50-share odd-lot buy for $0.81.
B/a just before open was
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 11,659 sell for $0.78 & $0.78 x 75, x 250. Then came 9:31's 37K $0.7998/68/$0.8000/1, 9:36's b/a 25:500 $0.7750/$0.80 (bids backed by presented5K $0.7701, 8.4K $0.77), 9:42's 100 $0.7702, 9:44's 300 $0.7702, 9:45's 200 $0.7702, 9:46's 200 $0.7702, 9:47's 400 $0.7702, 9:48's 100 $0.7702, 9:49's 200 $0.7702 (see a pattern here?), 9:50's 200 $0.7703, 9:50's b/a 25:600 $0.7750/$0.0 (bids backed by presented6.8K $0.7703), 9:51's 100 $0.7703, 9:52's 400 $0.7703, 9:53's 200 $0.7703, 9:54's 200 $0.7703, and the period ended on 9:55's 400 $0.7703/$0.7899.
09:56-10:30 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7703/$0.7801 (most highs $0.78 and lower), with rising lows and slowly falling highs, on 9:56's 200 $0.7703 and 9:57's 3.4K $0.7800/1 (1.2K). B/a at 9:59 was 25:500 $0.7750/$0.7801 (bids backed by presented600 $0.7705 & 6K $0.7704). Volume was interrupted by 10:05's 1.8K $0.7794/20. B/a at 10:09 was 125:500 $0.7750/83 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 10:11's 2.2K $0.7761/72/$0.78/$0.7799 and 10:12's 2.3K $0.7799/$0.78/$0.7799/96/89/98/$0.78. B/a at 10:17 was 5.6K:1K $0.7770/$0.7899, 10:20 5.7K:1K $0.7750/$0.7899, and the period ended on 10:30's 200 $0.775.
10:31-10:54 began a mostly very low, and some low-volume, climb from 10:31's 300 $0.775/$0.7895. B/a at 10:31 was 100:1K $0.7780/$0.7899. Volume was interrupted by 10:42's 30.3K $0.7740/$0.7887/$0.7800(30Kincl27.1Kblk). At 10:45 lows moved up giving a new range of $0.7800/97. B/a at 10:47 was 10.9K:600 $0.7800/97. The period ended on 10:54's 250 $0.7900/95.
10:55-12:02, after doing low/medium-volume $0.78/$0.7977 through 11:01, began extremely low/no-volume $0.78/9, with highs slowly falling at 11:36 onward. B/a at 10:56 was 1.7K:500 $0.78/$0.7990, 11:01 11.3:1.2K $0.78/$0.7990, 11:17 100:900 $0.7802/$0.79, 11:31 200:1.1K $0.7830/$0.79. At 11:52 the high was down to $0.7801. The period ended on 12:02's 301 $0.7800/1.
12:03-13:03 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7741/$0.78, with lows rising from 12:38 onward, with 12:03's 11.5K $0.78. B/a at 12:15 was 900:300 $0.7750/$0.78, 12:37 2K:600 $0.7751/$0.78, 13:02 93:656 $0.7804/98 (bids backed by presented 2.3K $0.78). The period ended on 13:03's 100 $0.78.
13:04-14:06 began extremely low-volume, through 13:25, $0.7800/1 (wit a few interruptions) after 13:04-:06's 200 $0.7849, 2K $0.7850/81/800, and 1.2K $0.7800 (200)/1. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:17's 4.7K $0.7853 (3.6K)/81/00 (1K). B/a at 13:18 was 2.4K:2.2K $0.7800/98. At 13:26 trade began extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 13:31 was 300:2.2K $0.7801/98. Price was interrupted by 13:32's 300 $0.7881 (100)/1. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:45's 3.6K $0.7898 (753)/49 (500)/98 (497)/00/49/80/49/98/49/00/90/00 (800). B/a at 13:46 was 300:1K $0.7801/98. Price was interrupted by 13:39's 405 $0.7801/00/69 (205). B/a at 14:01 was 3.3K:1.8K $0.7800/98. Price was interrupted by 14:01's300 $0.7800/80. The period ended on 14:06's 325 $0.7801/49.
14:07-14:55 began low (mostly)/medium-volume $0.7800/2 (large majority of trades $0.78) on 14:07's 100 $0.7801. B/a at 14:17 was 4.4K:300 $0.7800/1, 14:34 4.2K:300 $0.7800/1, 14:46 3.7K:300 $0.7800/1. The period ended on 14:55's 900 $0.78.
14:56-15:36 began a very low/medium-volume, slow, continuous and very small decline from 14:56's 1.2K $0.78 (1.1K)/$0.777. B/a at 14:59 was 1.1K:300 $0.7770/$0.7801, 15:16 1.3K:300 $0.7720/33, 15:31 3.5K:500 $0.7710/6. The period ended on 15:36's 300 $0.7720.
15:37-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7720/69, through 15:50, on 15:38's 5.5K $0.7747 (5K)/20/62. B/a at 15:42 was 2K:500 $0.7720/49, 15:46 1.9K:200 $0.7730/8, 15:50 1.7K:3000 $0.7740/63. Volume was interrupted by 15:51's 21.7K $0.7700 (12.5K)/20 (3.5K)/40 (1.6K)/20/40/20/40/20/40/20/62/31/62/00/31/62/00 to begin a very low-volume, but rising volume, price decline through 15:56. B/a at 15:52 was 4.3K:300 $0.7700/59, 15:56 3.1K:900 $0.7700/40. 15:56's 4.6K$0.77 (3.5K)/$0.7600/92 (500)/00 began the higher-volume EOD volatility $0.76/$0.7789. B/a at 15:57 was 5.7K:300 $0.7600/21. The period and day ended on 15:59's 2.9K $0.7700/67 (100)/$0.7650/00/65/00/49 and 16:00's 503 buy for $0.7649.
There were no AH trades.
N.B. Keep in mind the $0.80 close last night, and many similar on prior days, when thinking about the action in the first half-hour in the following. Also keep in mind that $0.75 AH trade from Thursday. They are "Form T" trades that may take up to 3 days to complete. So don't be surprised if Monday or Tuesday we see a $0.75 low put in. Also don't be surprised if it's accompanied by noticeable weakening in price. I don't know this will happen nor if there's correlation, but like the sign said Be Alert! because we need more Lerts!
N.B. about the N.B. Recall yesterday I'm thinking a breakdown is on the way but don't know when. The above may be just a manifestation of my inner Lert who happens to be more paranoid then even my TFH. So salt the thoughts liberally.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 91,826, 31.02% of day's volume, with a $0.7834 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 80,167, 27.08% of day's volume, with a $0.7839 VWAP. For the volume, the counts seem reasonable and the percentage of day's volume seems in the range of "normal". The VWAPs are above the day's $0.7809. If the buy percentage didn't stink so badly (see below), I'd think we had some retailers that have slowly become more bullish buying these larger quantities (notice below only two "larger larger trades", so I don't think it's generally institutionals and/or broker/dealers).
Notice below the VWAP and buy percentages where a tad less than half of the larger trades volume, ~42K, made: periods ended 10:54-13:03. Another ~31K made in the 9:55 period at the day's highest VWAP. I presume that these were most likely retailers and/or day traders following their strategy regardless.
On to business. I'll note that the ending buy percentage is more than double 4/4's 10.18% (NYC office bldg order PR Mon. 3/3) and higher than 3/24's 19.7% (C600S Order Mon. 3/20) and 3/14's 21.34% (C1000S PR Mon. 3/13). Now, don't we feel better about it? There's more, but that seemed to me to be enough to depress or cheer one up. Those were all down days too, but not the only ones of course. Anyway, they were all followed by up days that got us exactly nowhere, except that 3/14's following action bumped the consolidation range from $0.72/6 to what's settled into $0.76/$0.80 now. Maybe we'll get a repeat and I can fire my TFH and Lert.
To wrap up this particular waste of time I'll just note that the improvement of buy percentage as the day progressed seemed disconnected from the VWAP behavior. My speculative guess is that those that sold early at the high VWAP just planted there butts on the bid and let others sell them the covering shares. Note down below the increase in the short percentage. I'm thinking most of it was from MMs, they then move the market lower and cover what they need/want to ("need" to cover only shares naked shorted for which they had no backing customer sell order).
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Normally I would say the volume decline is suggesting no strength in the downward move suggested by the close. But at 296K it's still high relative to our 10-day average of ~286K, and that close was a pretty big move, giving back all of the prior day's gain, $0.7750->$0.80, plus some to $0.7649. This leaves the close down -1.30% from Wednesday's. I normally don't use the close as my yardstick (for oblivious [sic] reasons), but plenty of conventional traders and investors do and this might have an effect on some of them.
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is we made our first close below the very short-term rising support (rising green line). If we close below tomorrow a breakdown is confirmed. With a slope of $0.00375/day, estimated line value tomorrow is ~$0.7775, let's call it $0.78. Since the medium-term descending resistance, descending red line, has been pressuring the highs quite reliably, we can anticipate that will continue. If the low doesn't move, the MMs spread narrows, making it harder for them to make money. Tomorrow that line's price will be ~$0.7972, then $0.7943, $0.7915, ... So unless we get a breakout upward we can count on a break down coming. The MMs will not be denied, sans strong market sentiment.
As mentioned, if we break down I do expect the medium-term rising support (rising orange line) to hold. It's currently, IIRC what I said, ~$0.71 and rises about 1 cent over 16 trading days. Allowing for a little intra-day overshoot, the adventurous among us might want to put some buy orders in at $0.70 for a short/medium-term trade.
I'm considering it myself. Be aware that if I'm wrong and it doesn't hold (i.e close above the second day), the next target below would be $0.66. It might be better to catch the shares moving up.
EUREKA! The high busted through $0.80 to ... $0.8001 </snark>
How 'bout we call it flat and note that $0.80 has held as resistance for four of the last five days (five of five if we count the $0.799), the one exception being Tuesday's $0.799.
The fast EMA gave up the ghost and began falling again. Today the fast EMA dropped from $0.7844 to $0.7749 (appears to be below the rising green line, but that's imprecise of course), but remains above the now also falling $0.7689 of the slow EMA. This increases the likelihood that I'll get at least some satisfaction out of yesterday's { Considering the flat top and declining volume though, I think we will again be at risk of seeing the fast EMA cross below the slow EMA in the near future. }
The day's range was unable to stay above the now falling mid-point, $0.7685, of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and the close was below it, increasing my conviction that this is another sign of weakening.
yesterday I noted { Thanks to the suspicious close, the day's closing price was above the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit. This means we're "pushing" that limit and historically we've not seen good results from that. } Today's close and low seems to be bearing out that indication. But today is just one day - we'll have to wait another day or two to know.
On my one-year chart our highs continue to be limited by the new medium-term descending resistance described yesterday.
The 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA, continued rising, now fourteen of fifteen days. The 20-day SMA again rose slightly today from $0.7611 to $0.7643 and continues above the 50-day by $0.0035 now. The 10-day rose for the third consecutive day. These three remain "in order" - 10 > 20 > 50-day SMA. Our price movement is still not showing any ability to move up, so I still would not consider this bullish yet. When they are rising due to the current range rising, rather than just older lower values in the respective 10, 20 and 50-day SMA windows falling off and causing the averages to rise, I think then we can consider this bullish.
Due to the lower close, the following projections have some changes you should note.
If we hold here we'll get 1 day (was 9 rising) of declining 10-day SMA, 1 rise, four declines, 1 rise and two declines. The 20-day would have 5 days (was 6) of rise, 2 days (was 1 flat) of decline, oscillate up and down 4 days (was 11 rise) and then decline 4 days. The 50-day will rise 1 (was 2) days if we hold here, decline 7 (was 1 flat) days, and do 3 days (was 2 down) rise into the short "waves" of now mostly rising and brief periods of falling. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down moves.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in everything but ADX-related, which deteriorated. Everything but accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related is above neutral. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R are just below overbought. In aggregate, the oscillators are essentially in the same configuration as yesterday but with some have more magnitude. They were showing a more positive mix yesterday and continue that today.
Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in full stochastic. Only momentum and MFI are above neutral and the rest are below neutral. Nothing is oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7468 and $0.7922 ($0.7465 and $0.7964 yesterday), returned to converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit fell more quickly than the lower limit rose.
All in, everything suggests near-term negative. I wouldn't be surprised to see that break down I felt was approaching in the next day or two, sans a very positive PR.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and each with large magnitudes. The short percentage is now slightly above mu desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage ... Well, you know from above about that. In aggregate these both suggest near-term weakness as most likely.
The spread held relatively steady, still suggesting near-term movement is likely. It was produced by an early high, $0.8001, and at the end of the day, after a long relatively slow decline (due to relatively long flattish periods) intra-day, a relatively quick (15:00ish to the close) big drop from $0.78 to $0.76 by 15:56.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, for the fourth day, held steady at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 03/06 is $0.0326, 4.36%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960%, 0.0971%, and -0.2042%.
All in, near-term weakness is strongly suggested here.
Bill
Nothing suggests a positive bias right now. Everything does suggest a negative bias. The conventional TA oscillators going all negative, but for full stochastic, with nothing oversold, and the close below the minimal chart's rising short-term support (rising green line) while the highs are being limited by the medium-term descending resistance (falling red line) complete the conventional suggestion of a negative near-term move as being most likely.
My unconventional stuff, including the intra-day breakdown and the percentages for short sales and buys, support this.
Today was quite flattish from ~11:50 through ~14:56. Prior to that was the typical open high, drop, flattish and recover. Subsequent to ~14:56 was a sag lower to set the days low and close just above there. All was generally extremely low-volume with the usual interruptions.
There was one pre-market trade, a 50-share odd-lot buy for $0.81.
B/a just before open was
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 11,659 sell for $0.78 & $0.78 x 75, x 250. Then came 9:31's 37K $0.7998/68/$0.8000/1, 9:36's b/a 25:500 $0.7750/$0.80 (bids backed by presented5K $0.7701, 8.4K $0.77), 9:42's 100 $0.7702, 9:44's 300 $0.7702, 9:45's 200 $0.7702, 9:46's 200 $0.7702, 9:47's 400 $0.7702, 9:48's 100 $0.7702, 9:49's 200 $0.7702 (see a pattern here?), 9:50's 200 $0.7703, 9:50's b/a 25:600 $0.7750/$0.0 (bids backed by presented6.8K $0.7703), 9:51's 100 $0.7703, 9:52's 400 $0.7703, 9:53's 200 $0.7703, 9:54's 200 $0.7703, and the period ended on 9:55's 400 $0.7703/$0.7899.
09:56-10:30 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7703/$0.7801 (most highs $0.78 and lower), with rising lows and slowly falling highs, on 9:56's 200 $0.7703 and 9:57's 3.4K $0.7800/1 (1.2K). B/a at 9:59 was 25:500 $0.7750/$0.7801 (bids backed by presented600 $0.7705 & 6K $0.7704). Volume was interrupted by 10:05's 1.8K $0.7794/20. B/a at 10:09 was 125:500 $0.7750/83 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 10:11's 2.2K $0.7761/72/$0.78/$0.7799 and 10:12's 2.3K $0.7799/$0.78/$0.7799/96/89/98/$0.78. B/a at 10:17 was 5.6K:1K $0.7770/$0.7899, 10:20 5.7K:1K $0.7750/$0.7899, and the period ended on 10:30's 200 $0.775.
10:31-10:54 began a mostly very low, and some low-volume, climb from 10:31's 300 $0.775/$0.7895. B/a at 10:31 was 100:1K $0.7780/$0.7899. Volume was interrupted by 10:42's 30.3K $0.7740/$0.7887/$0.7800(30Kincl27.1Kblk). At 10:45 lows moved up giving a new range of $0.7800/97. B/a at 10:47 was 10.9K:600 $0.7800/97. The period ended on 10:54's 250 $0.7900/95.
10:55-12:02, after doing low/medium-volume $0.78/$0.7977 through 11:01, began extremely low/no-volume $0.78/9, with highs slowly falling at 11:36 onward. B/a at 10:56 was 1.7K:500 $0.78/$0.7990, 11:01 11.3:1.2K $0.78/$0.7990, 11:17 100:900 $0.7802/$0.79, 11:31 200:1.1K $0.7830/$0.79. At 11:52 the high was down to $0.7801. The period ended on 12:02's 301 $0.7800/1.
12:03-13:03 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7741/$0.78, with lows rising from 12:38 onward, with 12:03's 11.5K $0.78. B/a at 12:15 was 900:300 $0.7750/$0.78, 12:37 2K:600 $0.7751/$0.78, 13:02 93:656 $0.7804/98 (bids backed by presented 2.3K $0.78). The period ended on 13:03's 100 $0.78.
13:04-14:06 began extremely low-volume, through 13:25, $0.7800/1 (wit a few interruptions) after 13:04-:06's 200 $0.7849, 2K $0.7850/81/800, and 1.2K $0.7800 (200)/1. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:17's 4.7K $0.7853 (3.6K)/81/00 (1K). B/a at 13:18 was 2.4K:2.2K $0.7800/98. At 13:26 trade began extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 13:31 was 300:2.2K $0.7801/98. Price was interrupted by 13:32's 300 $0.7881 (100)/1. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:45's 3.6K $0.7898 (753)/49 (500)/98 (497)/00/49/80/49/98/49/00/90/00 (800). B/a at 13:46 was 300:1K $0.7801/98. Price was interrupted by 13:39's 405 $0.7801/00/69 (205). B/a at 14:01 was 3.3K:1.8K $0.7800/98. Price was interrupted by 14:01's300 $0.7800/80. The period ended on 14:06's 325 $0.7801/49.
14:07-14:55 began low (mostly)/medium-volume $0.7800/2 (large majority of trades $0.78) on 14:07's 100 $0.7801. B/a at 14:17 was 4.4K:300 $0.7800/1, 14:34 4.2K:300 $0.7800/1, 14:46 3.7K:300 $0.7800/1. The period ended on 14:55's 900 $0.78.
14:56-15:36 began a very low/medium-volume, slow, continuous and very small decline from 14:56's 1.2K $0.78 (1.1K)/$0.777. B/a at 14:59 was 1.1K:300 $0.7770/$0.7801, 15:16 1.3K:300 $0.7720/33, 15:31 3.5K:500 $0.7710/6. The period ended on 15:36's 300 $0.7720.
15:37-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7720/69, through 15:50, on 15:38's 5.5K $0.7747 (5K)/20/62. B/a at 15:42 was 2K:500 $0.7720/49, 15:46 1.9K:200 $0.7730/8, 15:50 1.7K:3000 $0.7740/63. Volume was interrupted by 15:51's 21.7K $0.7700 (12.5K)/20 (3.5K)/40 (1.6K)/20/40/20/40/20/40/20/62/31/62/00/31/62/00 to begin a very low-volume, but rising volume, price decline through 15:56. B/a at 15:52 was 4.3K:300 $0.7700/59, 15:56 3.1K:900 $0.7700/40. 15:56's 4.6K$0.77 (3.5K)/$0.7600/92 (500)/00 began the higher-volume EOD volatility $0.76/$0.7789. B/a at 15:57 was 5.7K:300 $0.7600/21. The period and day ended on 15:59's 2.9K $0.7700/67 (100)/$0.7650/00/65/00/49 and 16:00's 503 buy for $0.7649.
There were no AH trades.
N.B. Keep in mind the $0.80 close last night, and many similar on prior days, when thinking about the action in the first half-hour in the following. Also keep in mind that $0.75 AH trade from Thursday. They are "Form T" trades that may take up to 3 days to complete. So don't be surprised if Monday or Tuesday we see a $0.75 low put in. Also don't be surprised if it's accompanied by noticeable weakening in price. I don't know this will happen nor if there's correlation, but like the sign said Be Alert! because we need more Lerts!
N.B. about the N.B. Recall yesterday I'm thinking a breakdown is on the way but don't know when. The above may be just a manifestation of my inner Lert who happens to be more paranoid then even my TFH. So salt the thoughts liberally.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 91,826, 31.02% of day's volume, with a $0.7834 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 80,167, 27.08% of day's volume, with a $0.7839 VWAP. For the volume, the counts seem reasonable and the percentage of day's volume seems in the range of "normal". The VWAPs are above the day's $0.7809. If the buy percentage didn't stink so badly (see below), I'd think we had some retailers that have slowly become more bullish buying these larger quantities (notice below only two "larger larger trades", so I don't think it's generally institutionals and/or broker/dealers).
Notice below the VWAP and buy percentages where a tad less than half of the larger trades volume, ~42K, made: periods ended 10:54-13:03. Another ~31K made in the 9:55 period at the day's highest VWAP. I presume that these were most likely retailers and/or day traders following their strategy regardless.
Save me some trouble and just pretend I posted a vituperative rant here about the buy percentage and the causes of them. I just can't get worked up over them.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 52069 $0.7702 $0.8001 $41,323.99 $0.7936 17.59% 4.59% Incl 09:30 $0.7800 11,659 09:31 $0.8000 4,000
09:31 $0.8000 4,000 5,114 7,500
10:30 13400 $0.7703 $0.7801 $10,427.01 $0.7781 4.53% 11.81%
10:54 55154 $0.7740 $0.7995 $43,058.77 $0.7807 18.63% 12.58% Incl 10:42 $0.7800 27,086
12:02 30900 $0.7800 $0.7989 $24,270.08 $0.7854 10.44% 13.01% Incl 11:11 $0.7900 5,300
13:03 27242 $0.7740 $0.7804 $21,220.74 $0.7790 9.20% 21.18% Incl 12:03 $0.7800 9,667
14:06 22766 $0.7800 $0.7898 $17,814.24 $0.7825 7.69% 22.52%
14:55 12504 $0.7800 $0.7802 $9,753.41 $0.7800 4.22% 21.63%
15:36 24776 $0.7700 $0.7800 $19,156.27 $0.7732 8.37% 21.05%
16:00 54593 $0.7600 $0.7769 $42,107.54 $0.7713 18.44% 24.08% Incl 15:38 $0.7747 5,000 15:51 $0.7700 12,500
On to business. I'll note that the ending buy percentage is more than double 4/4's 10.18% (NYC office bldg order PR Mon. 3/3) and higher than 3/24's 19.7% (C600S Order Mon. 3/20) and 3/14's 21.34% (C1000S PR Mon. 3/13). Now, don't we feel better about it? There's more, but that seemed to me to be enough to depress or cheer one up. Those were all down days too, but not the only ones of course. Anyway, they were all followed by up days that got us exactly nowhere, except that 3/14's following action bumped the consolidation range from $0.72/6 to what's settled into $0.76/$0.80 now. Maybe we'll get a repeat and I can fire my TFH and Lert.
To wrap up this particular waste of time I'll just note that the improvement of buy percentage as the day progressed seemed disconnected from the VWAP behavior. My speculative guess is that those that sold early at the high VWAP just planted there butts on the bid and let others sell them the covering shares. Note down below the increase in the short percentage. I'm thinking most of it was from MMs, they then move the market lower and cover what they need/want to ("need" to cover only shares naked shorted for which they had no backing customer sell order).
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Well, that 1/100th of a penny gain on high makes all the difference, doesn't it? Certainly must have a bull market developing regardless of the movement of the close and the volume. </snark>__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% -4.39% -27.83%
Prior 0.00% -1.30% 0.00% 3.23% -30.08%
Normally I would say the volume decline is suggesting no strength in the downward move suggested by the close. But at 296K it's still high relative to our 10-day average of ~286K, and that close was a pretty big move, giving back all of the prior day's gain, $0.7750->$0.80, plus some to $0.7649. This leaves the close down -1.30% from Wednesday's. I normally don't use the close as my yardstick (for oblivious [sic] reasons), but plenty of conventional traders and investors do and this might have an effect on some of them.
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is we made our first close below the very short-term rising support (rising green line). If we close below tomorrow a breakdown is confirmed. With a slope of $0.00375/day, estimated line value tomorrow is ~$0.7775, let's call it $0.78. Since the medium-term descending resistance, descending red line, has been pressuring the highs quite reliably, we can anticipate that will continue. If the low doesn't move, the MMs spread narrows, making it harder for them to make money. Tomorrow that line's price will be ~$0.7972, then $0.7943, $0.7915, ... So unless we get a breakout upward we can count on a break down coming. The MMs will not be denied, sans strong market sentiment.
As mentioned, if we break down I do expect the medium-term rising support (rising orange line) to hold. It's currently, IIRC what I said, ~$0.71 and rises about 1 cent over 16 trading days. Allowing for a little intra-day overshoot, the adventurous among us might want to put some buy orders in at $0.70 for a short/medium-term trade.
I'm considering it myself. Be aware that if I'm wrong and it doesn't hold (i.e close above the second day), the next target below would be $0.66. It might be better to catch the shares moving up.
EUREKA! The high busted through $0.80 to ... $0.8001 </snark>
How 'bout we call it flat and note that $0.80 has held as resistance for four of the last five days (five of five if we count the $0.799), the one exception being Tuesday's $0.799.
The fast EMA gave up the ghost and began falling again. Today the fast EMA dropped from $0.7844 to $0.7749 (appears to be below the rising green line, but that's imprecise of course), but remains above the now also falling $0.7689 of the slow EMA. This increases the likelihood that I'll get at least some satisfaction out of yesterday's { Considering the flat top and declining volume though, I think we will again be at risk of seeing the fast EMA cross below the slow EMA in the near future. }
The day's range was unable to stay above the now falling mid-point, $0.7685, of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band and the close was below it, increasing my conviction that this is another sign of weakening.
yesterday I noted { Thanks to the suspicious close, the day's closing price was above the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit. This means we're "pushing" that limit and historically we've not seen good results from that. } Today's close and low seems to be bearing out that indication. But today is just one day - we'll have to wait another day or two to know.
On my one-year chart our highs continue to be limited by the new medium-term descending resistance described yesterday.
The 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA, continued rising, now fourteen of fifteen days. The 20-day SMA again rose slightly today from $0.7611 to $0.7643 and continues above the 50-day by $0.0035 now. The 10-day rose for the third consecutive day. These three remain "in order" - 10 > 20 > 50-day SMA. Our price movement is still not showing any ability to move up, so I still would not consider this bullish yet. When they are rising due to the current range rising, rather than just older lower values in the respective 10, 20 and 50-day SMA windows falling off and causing the averages to rise, I think then we can consider this bullish.
Due to the lower close, the following projections have some changes you should note.
If we hold here we'll get 1 day (was 9 rising) of declining 10-day SMA, 1 rise, four declines, 1 rise and two declines. The 20-day would have 5 days (was 6) of rise, 2 days (was 1 flat) of decline, oscillate up and down 4 days (was 11 rise) and then decline 4 days. The 50-day will rise 1 (was 2) days if we hold here, decline 7 (was 1 flat) days, and do 3 days (was 2 down) rise into the short "waves" of now mostly rising and brief periods of falling. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down moves.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in everything but ADX-related, which deteriorated. Everything but accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related is above neutral. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R are just below overbought. In aggregate, the oscillators are essentially in the same configuration as yesterday but with some have more magnitude. They were showing a more positive mix yesterday and continue that today.
Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in full stochastic. Only momentum and MFI are above neutral and the rest are below neutral. Nothing is oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7468 and $0.7922 ($0.7465 and $0.7964 yesterday), returned to converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit fell more quickly than the lower limit rose.
All in, everything suggests near-term negative. I wouldn't be surprised to see that break down I felt was approaching in the next day or two, sans a very positive PR.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and each with large magnitudes. The short percentage is now slightly above mu desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage ... Well, you know from above about that. In aggregate these both suggest near-term weakness as most likely.
The spread held relatively steady, still suggesting near-term movement is likely. It was produced by an early high, $0.8001, and at the end of the day, after a long relatively slow decline (due to relatively long flattish periods) intra-day, a relatively quick (15:00ish to the close) big drop from $0.78 to $0.76 by 15:56.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, for the fourth day, held steady at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 03/06 is $0.0326, 4.36%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960%, 0.0971%, and -0.2042%.
All in, near-term weakness is strongly suggested here.
Bill
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