Saturday, April 08, 2017 9:49:04 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/06 2017 EOD
Lots of gristle in today's post below.
I end up at the usual place with one addition. Best-case scenario is continued consolidation with a mild negative bias. The addition is that I believe we've entered the time-frame, due to the duration of this consolidation, where we should expect a move to appear and I'm expecting it to be negative. If that does come I expect to test the rising medium-term support (minimal chart's rising orange line), currently ~$0.71 and rising about 1 cent every 16 trading days, and it should hold if we don't test it too late. As I note below, I really have no clue as to when the move is likely to appear, but feel it is near.
Take note of the 11:18-14:05 period in the detail narrative below. Behavior there means something, I'm sure, but I don't know what. I do wonder if the recent spate of positive PRs has made the risk/reward scenario for the shorters uncomfortable and if they may have started (continued?) doing careful covering buys. This might explain the generally narrow range of trading over the last week or so.
OTOH, they are usually pretty good at buying at the lower VWAPs and not moving price. This time that period was one of the higher VWAPs. Maybe it was just the best they could do today. I also shouldn't overlook the possibility that MMs were doing the buying, to either cover their short positions or to accumulate for a sale to a good customer. This might account for the majority of the larger trades occurring after that period and at a mostly higher VWAP. If this was the case it could be an indication of larger investors (e.g. institutional investors) quietly accumulating shares prior to an expected good quarterly report and/or analyst upgrades.
We also shouldn't ignore the fact that often our own brokers will do this and then sell the shares to us when the rise begins. A strongly rising price with a low short percentage over time would be one of the spoor left by them. Nothing wrong with that - everyone needs to make money. What is wrong with that is if your dealer/broker does this and also issues analysis on the symbol that is quite bullish after they've accumulated ahead of us poor retailers.
Certain squid banksters were rumored to do this in the past, but that hasn't been mentioned in a long while.
All part of the market design, which is designed to take money from us and give it to [.b]them.
The secondary market, which we play in, is a zero-sum game and, as my father used to say, { I'll give you three guesses ... } what class of participant most often ends up with the zero-sum.
Also note we had another apparent MM manipulation (set up for tomorrow?) on 16:00's 100 $0.80, +2.56% over last 15:59 $0.78 x 100.
Also there was one AH trade, which is suspicious to me: $0.75 x 100, -6.25% from the $0.80 close and -3.85% from the last 15:59 $0.78 trade.
There were three pre-market trades: a buy of 25 for $0.80 at 9:21 and sells of 131 and 69 for $0.75 at 8:29.
B/a just before open was 5K:100 $0.7601/$0.80.
09:30-09:46 opened the day with a 923 unknown for $0.78 & $0.78 x 100, x 100, x 183, $0.77 x 100, x 100, $0.78 x 1K, $0.77 x 150. B/a just after open was 1.1K:200 $0.77/8 and immediately 1K:3.3K $0.7700/99. Then came 9:32's 200 $0.77, 9:33's 1.1K $0.77/$0.7600/8, 9:34's 200 $0.7610, 9:35's 129 $0.7610, 9:36's 200 $0.76, 9:36's b/a 8K:647 $0.7611/$0.7799, 9:37's 200 $0.7611, 9:38's 200 $0.7613, 9:39's 400 $0.7611, 9:40's 200 $0.7611, 9:41's 100 $0.7611, 9:42's 600 $0.7611, 9:43's 100 $0.7611, 9:44's 4K $0.7645/6/$0.7611 (815), 9:44's b/a 300:2.4K $0.7611/40 (offers falling), 9:45's 100 $0.7611, and the period ended on 9:46's 13K $0.7611/12/05/12/00/12/00/12/00.
09:47-10:18 began low (mostly)/no-volume $0.7600/1 on 9:47's 2.1K $0.76. B/a at 9:49 was 18K:1.2K $0.7600/1, 10:03 5.4K:1.3K $0.7600/1. Volume was interrupted by 10:01's 17.2K $0.7601/00 (16K blk) and 10:10's 6.4K $0.76. b/a at 10:12 was 3.1K:1.2K $0.7600/1, 10:17 3.1K:1.2K $0.7600/1. The period ended on 10:18's 847 $0.7600 (100)/1.
10:19-10:56 began very low/no-volume $0.7703/$0.78, with slowly rising lows, on 10:19's 1.7K $0.7601/$0.7700 (500)/99 (100). B/a at 10:24 was 300:900 $0.7701/5, 10:32 462:1.1K $0.7751/$0.78. Volume switched to mostly low/medium-volume at 10:32. B/a at 10:47 was 600:600 $0.7708/99. Lows were up to $0.7740 at 10:49. The period ended on 10:56's 100 $0.7786.
10:57-11:17, after three no-trades minutes, dropped big on 11:00's 4.2K $0.7782/$0.7800 (4K)/$0.7601. B/a at 11:03 was 5.3K:600 $0.7601/$0.78 and at 11:04 jumped back up to $0.7751 to begin an extremely low/no-volume small rise. 11:05's 100 hit $0.7757 and 11:06's 100 hit $0.78. B/a at 11:17 was 300:500 $0.7799/8. The period ended on 11:17's 100 $0.78.
11:18-14:05 Talk about your long extremely low/no-volume flattish period - this was it! ~2.75 hours, ~54.3K volume and a $0.7799/$0.78 spread where someone did enough buying to move by percentage from 31.57% to 47.15%. 41,397 shares, 76.25% of the ~54.3K shares traded, were buys hitting the offer.
B/a at 11:42 was 800:700 $0.7799/$0.78, 12:16 800:300 $0.7799/$0.78. At 12:19 constant pecking of the $0.7799 bid with 100-shares at 1-minute intervals, mostly, began. This lasted through 12:38. B/a at 12:31 was 400:300 $0.7799/$0.78. At 12:43 constant pecking of the $0.7799 bid with 100-shares at 1-minute intervals, mostly, resumed. This lasted through 12:52. B/a at 12:49 was 800:300 $0.7799/$0.78. At 12:55 constant pecking of the $0.7799 bid with 100-shares at 1-minute intervals, mostly, resumed. This lasted through 13:02. B/a at 13:02 was 700:300 $0.7799/$0.78, 13:18 900:400 $0.7799/$0.78, 13:47 500:300 $0.7799/$0.78C. The period ended on 14:05's 1.1K $0.78.
14:06-14:55 began extremely low/no-volume flattish $0.7751/$0.78, another mostly buying period, on 14:09's 1.1K $0.7799/52/1. B/a at 14:18 was 1.9K:300 $0.7754/99, 14:31 1K:300 $0.7755/99 (bids jiggling $0.7754 x 100). Volume was interrupted by 14:45's 16.7K $0.7758 (400)/80/$0.7800 (~9K)/$0.7799 (700)/$0.78. B/a at 14:46 was 2K:300 $0.7760/$0.78, (bid jiggling 200 $0.7759). The period ended on 14:55's 5.1K $0.7781/$0.78.
14:56-15:13 began a mostly medium/high-volume rise from 14:56-:57's 19.5K $0.7800 (~17K)/97/27/00/$0.79 (100)/$0.7800/1/2. 15:07's 2.8K hit $0.786/$0.794 and the rise ended on 15:08's 8.9K $0.7902/41/05/41/03/05/03/41/03/79/03/41/02/01/02/01/00/$0.7894. The period ended on 15:13's 11.6K $0.7811/08/54/08/16/08/$0.7981 (6.5K)/00/$0.7854 ... /$0.7900/04/$0.7808/09/$0.7900/$0.7808/10.
15:14-15:45 began mostly low/medium-volume $0.78/$0.7950 on 15:14's 500 $0.7830/65. Volume was interrupted by 15:21's 12K $0.7891 (4K)/$0.7900 (3.4K)/$0.7891/$0.7900/$0.7894/98/95/98/94/98/90/$0.7900/50/$0.7891/$0.7950/21/$0.7891/$0.7900/$0.7891 and 15:28's 10.9K $0.7900(8.6K)/01/00/01$0.7814/02/01/50/01/50/02/00/02. The lows moved up to $0.7907 at 15:33. B/a at 15:37 was 700:300 $0.7905/10. The period ended on 15:45's 700 $0.7930/62.
15:46-16:00, after a quick high-volume three-minute dip on 15:46-:48's ~28K $0.8000(1.2K)/$0.7924/$0.7989(4K)/$0.7925/$0.7963/$0.7924(1.1K), $0.7925(3.7K)/24/23/22/21/00(5.6K)/$0.7802/$0.7900(2.9K)/$0.7802, 15:47's b/a of 200:1.8K $0.7802/$0.7999, and 15:48's $0.7802/$0.7901/17 (2.6K)/$0.7802 (1.8K), began extremely low-volume $0.7800/5.The period and day ended on 15:59's 2,725 $0.7800/1 (100) and 16:00's 100 $0.80, +2.56% over last 15:59 $0.78.
There was one AH trade, which is suspicious to me: $0.75 x 100, -6.25% from the $0.80 close and -3.85% from the last 15:59 $0.78 trade.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 15 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 106,655, 26.00% of day's volume, with a $0.7837 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the volume and the percentage of day's volume seems normal. The VWAP is slightly above the day's $0.7810, suggesting retail buyers, maybe supplied by MMs after that long apparent accumulation period.
You can see that the last 45 minutes was heavy selling by the drop of the buy percentage from 15:13's ~52% to 16:00's ~45% when only ~21% of the day's volume traded. The VWAPs were still "high" though so I have to guess a late-day "sell into strength" occurred and that doesn't bode well going forward. Of course, a late-day sag in buy percentage is quite normal. I guess it's from either day traders or MMs that shorted at higher prices, started moving range down and did some covering buys, at least of the shares not backed by customer sell orders.
Regardless, to have buy percentage end in "no man's land" after the recent spate of positive PRs and the early buy percentage and VWAP rise is not a good omen. Oh! Then there's the reduced volume on an "up" day - close higher than open. Of course we know that close was, um, "suspicious"
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Time for a new minimal chart. I've had to adjust the descending support/resistance (falling red line) as the previous one was no longer in play. Chart snapshot was 4/7, so just pretend that day doesn't appear yet - I do!
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On my minimal chart note how our highs seem to be respecting the newly placed descending medium-term resistance (falling red line).
Note also the low stopped honoring the short-term support (rising green line added on prior 3/24 new chart), predicted I guess as yesterday there was no longer a small gap down to the rising line. Again the high is stuck at the $0.80 level, where we have been for four days now, apparently capped as the red line suggests. As mentioned yesterday, { Being unable to get beyond this to test the $0.82/3 known resistance again in light of the PR(s) is a real concern, suggesting there is no real strength in the bullish sentiment. }
The fast EMA stopped falling yesterday and actually rose a half-penny to $0.7697 from the prior day's $0.7647. It was $0.0048 above the still-rising slow EMA. Today the fast EMA rose again, to $0.7844, $0.0144 above the rising slow EMA. Considering the flat top and declining volume though, I think we will again be at risk of seeing the fast EMA cross below the slow EMA in the near future.
The day's range was unable to stay above the rising mid-point, $0.7689, of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. I think this is another sign of weakening.
Thanks to the suspicious close, the day's closing price was above the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit. This means we're "pushing" that limit and historically we've not seen good results from that.
On my one-year chart I've had to replace the long-term descending support/resistance with a medium-term descending resistance to get a (semi-)good fit to the highs since Oct. 21 2016. We have that origin and several touches of it since, most in the last two weeks. If this trend line is valid, and I suspect it is, that matches with our difficulty in rising as we are bumping it frequently now. Best I can tell it's at $0.80 now.
For the following, keep in mind the suspicious nature of the close detailed above!
The 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA, continued rising, now thirteen of fourteen days. The 20-day SMA again rose slightly today to $0.7611 from $0.7568. The gap down to the 20-day yesterday $0.0015 inverted as the 20-day rose to $0.0013 above the 50-day. The 10-day rose for the second consecutive day. This puts these three "in order" - 10 > 20 > 50-day SMA. If our price movement had been showing some ability to move up, I would consider this quite bullish, similar to how we would assess the MACD in this case. The sad fact is though that this configuration has come about as we went essentially sideways long enough that older lower values in the respective 10, 20 and 50-day SMA windows falling off caused the averages to rise.
If we hold here we'll get 9 days (was 4) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 6 days (was 7) of rise, 1 day (was 2 flat, 11 days (was 5) of rise. The 50-day will rise 2 (was 3) days if we hold here, do 1 day flat, and then do 2 days (was 3) down into the short "waves" of now mostly rising and brief periods of falling. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down moves.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had deterioration in accumulation/distribution, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R. Above neutral were RSI, MFI and momentum. Below neutral were Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Nothing was overbought or oversold but full stochastic was very near oversold.
Today had improvement in everything but ADX-related, which deteriorated. Everything but accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related is above neutral. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R are just below overbought. In aggregate, the oscillators are essentially in the same configuration as yesterday but with some have more magnitude. They were showing a more positive mix yesterday and continue that today.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7465 and $0.7964 ($0.7465 and $0.7964 yesterday), stopped converging as both the lower and upper limits went flat. We also have a static mid-point. I just noticed that we've been pushing the upper limit for four days now. This generally has not led to a price rise but the instances in the recent past didn't have flat limits.
All in, as is frequently the case, the conventional TA is at odds with my unconventional stuff detailed in such as the intra-day breakdown and the detailed description of various periods throughout the day.
Only the declining volume suggests that we aren't entering a likely bullish scenario. The oscillators suggest a bullish scenario is becoming more likely. The descending resistance trend lines on the minimal and one-year charts say we are challenging resistance repeatedly. Any rational person would say it's starting to look like there's a decent chance we'll break out.
Then there's me and my TFH. I see the low volume, the artificially boosted close(s) mentioned above and many prior days, buy percentage unable to hold decent levels intra-day, or EOD, and similar negative indicators in the tabular items below.
Since my TFH has been spot-on more often than not, I'm going to stick with that tool as being more often most accurate. So I would read all the above as continued consolidation, at best, A mild negative bias within consolidation seems the next best, and a more likely, scenario.
We've been doing essentially sideways with very small up and down legs since 3/20, short-term consolidation, and a medium-term triangle consolidation since 12/30 (see minimal chart rising orange line and newly placed descending red line). The experimental Bollinger bands have gone flat. The duration of the sideways move and the Bollinger bands are suggesting we should be making a move soon. Further, we are laterally far enough along in the consolidation triangle where a break becomes statistically more likely (typically 50%-65% and greater of the triangle width).
I believe a break will come to the downside. I think it will test the medium-term rising support (rising orange line) and it is likely to hold, as I've stated in the past. Right now it's ~$0.71. Since I don't yet have a strong inkling of when the break will come, I don't have a clue where that line will be when the break happens.
I can tell you it's slope - ~$0.000625/day, or roughly 1 cent each 16 days. So three weeks (about 15 trading days) from now it will be ~$0.72.
I want to repeat what I said yesterday when I closed out this section: { On the bearish side is the inability of buy percentage to sustain an intra-day, and ending, level that suggests appreciation is more likely than not. This implies a couple negative items - shorters being aggressive on any rise and/or momo or day-traders taking advantage of any price rise, leading to my observations of "selling into strength". Also negative is that intra-day periods have been unable to sustain a predominantly upward intra-day trajectory - instead it's most commonly predominantly weakening throughout the day. Normal would be some more frequent up and down as MM and shorter activity battled bullish investors that thought various prices were good add points.
Some of this is due, I think, to the manipulation of the closing and opening prices by the MMs to make their money. The natural effect of that is what we see so often.
The last negative may be the most important - the inability to get above $0.80, either intra-day or on the close. Add in the prior attempt to move above the $0.82 (my $0.83) line was rebuffed quite handily.
Until I see these negative counterpoints significantly abate, I have to remain thinking consolidation, and that with a mild weakening bias. }
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, abnormal, but the good news is the short percentage fell to near the middle of my desired range (needs re-check), The bad news is the buy percentage improved only marginally, going from suggesting near-term weakness to suggesting nothing - "no man's land".
The spread widened and was produced by a not uncommon open high, $0.78, and a quick drop to $0.76, the official low, and an also not uncommon flattish, rise, flattish, rise, ... and later in the day a little down and rise into the close hitting ... Are you ready for it? TA-DA $0.80 at 15:56, dropping back to $0.7802 by 15:47 and, by the grace of God and the MMs (are they one-and-the-same?) closed on 16:00's $0.80 x 100, +2.56% over last 15:59 $0.78.
Well, if they can do that, I can include 270-share AH trades at $0.75 in my metrics and note the spread would then be 6.67%.
Either way, the spread is wider than what I would expect in consolidation and I think it suggests that a change should be near. Moreover, it's been this way two of the last three days, complete with the MM's gift of official closes higher by a substantial margin than the last trades in the prior minute.
Somebody's earning their keep holding this price up.
In spite of the flat close, the VWAP weakened and ended very near that long, flat 11:18-14:05 period's $0.78 VWAP.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, for the third day, held steady at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 03/03 is $0.0296, 3.93%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960%, 0.0971%, -0.2042%, and -0.0667%.
All in, what sways me today are the buy percentage being "no man's land" or worse for five consecutive days and 12 of the last 14 days, the lower VWAP, the inability of the rolling 24-period VWAP average change unable to make a and sustain a positive trend, and the constant manipulation of at least the close.
That leaves me at best-case scenario, as usual, consolidation with a mild negative bias. But we've entered the period now when I suspect worse is coming.
Bill
Lots of gristle in today's post below.
I end up at the usual place with one addition. Best-case scenario is continued consolidation with a mild negative bias. The addition is that I believe we've entered the time-frame, due to the duration of this consolidation, where we should expect a move to appear and I'm expecting it to be negative. If that does come I expect to test the rising medium-term support (minimal chart's rising orange line), currently ~$0.71 and rising about 1 cent every 16 trading days, and it should hold if we don't test it too late. As I note below, I really have no clue as to when the move is likely to appear, but feel it is near.
Take note of the 11:18-14:05 period in the detail narrative below. Behavior there means something, I'm sure, but I don't know what. I do wonder if the recent spate of positive PRs has made the risk/reward scenario for the shorters uncomfortable and if they may have started (continued?) doing careful covering buys. This might explain the generally narrow range of trading over the last week or so.
OTOH, they are usually pretty good at buying at the lower VWAPs and not moving price. This time that period was one of the higher VWAPs. Maybe it was just the best they could do today. I also shouldn't overlook the possibility that MMs were doing the buying, to either cover their short positions or to accumulate for a sale to a good customer. This might account for the majority of the larger trades occurring after that period and at a mostly higher VWAP. If this was the case it could be an indication of larger investors (e.g. institutional investors) quietly accumulating shares prior to an expected good quarterly report and/or analyst upgrades.
We also shouldn't ignore the fact that often our own brokers will do this and then sell the shares to us when the rise begins. A strongly rising price with a low short percentage over time would be one of the spoor left by them. Nothing wrong with that - everyone needs to make money. What is wrong with that is if your dealer/broker does this and also issues analysis on the symbol that is quite bullish after they've accumulated ahead of us poor retailers.
Certain squid banksters were rumored to do this in the past, but that hasn't been mentioned in a long while.
All part of the market design, which is designed to take money from us and give it to [.b]them.
The secondary market, which we play in, is a zero-sum game and, as my father used to say, { I'll give you three guesses ... } what class of participant most often ends up with the zero-sum.
Also note we had another apparent MM manipulation (set up for tomorrow?) on 16:00's 100 $0.80, +2.56% over last 15:59 $0.78 x 100.
Also there was one AH trade, which is suspicious to me: $0.75 x 100, -6.25% from the $0.80 close and -3.85% from the last 15:59 $0.78 trade.
There were three pre-market trades: a buy of 25 for $0.80 at 9:21 and sells of 131 and 69 for $0.75 at 8:29.
B/a just before open was 5K:100 $0.7601/$0.80.
09:30-09:46 opened the day with a 923 unknown for $0.78 & $0.78 x 100, x 100, x 183, $0.77 x 100, x 100, $0.78 x 1K, $0.77 x 150. B/a just after open was 1.1K:200 $0.77/8 and immediately 1K:3.3K $0.7700/99. Then came 9:32's 200 $0.77, 9:33's 1.1K $0.77/$0.7600/8, 9:34's 200 $0.7610, 9:35's 129 $0.7610, 9:36's 200 $0.76, 9:36's b/a 8K:647 $0.7611/$0.7799, 9:37's 200 $0.7611, 9:38's 200 $0.7613, 9:39's 400 $0.7611, 9:40's 200 $0.7611, 9:41's 100 $0.7611, 9:42's 600 $0.7611, 9:43's 100 $0.7611, 9:44's 4K $0.7645/6/$0.7611 (815), 9:44's b/a 300:2.4K $0.7611/40 (offers falling), 9:45's 100 $0.7611, and the period ended on 9:46's 13K $0.7611/12/05/12/00/12/00/12/00.
09:47-10:18 began low (mostly)/no-volume $0.7600/1 on 9:47's 2.1K $0.76. B/a at 9:49 was 18K:1.2K $0.7600/1, 10:03 5.4K:1.3K $0.7600/1. Volume was interrupted by 10:01's 17.2K $0.7601/00 (16K blk) and 10:10's 6.4K $0.76. b/a at 10:12 was 3.1K:1.2K $0.7600/1, 10:17 3.1K:1.2K $0.7600/1. The period ended on 10:18's 847 $0.7600 (100)/1.
10:19-10:56 began very low/no-volume $0.7703/$0.78, with slowly rising lows, on 10:19's 1.7K $0.7601/$0.7700 (500)/99 (100). B/a at 10:24 was 300:900 $0.7701/5, 10:32 462:1.1K $0.7751/$0.78. Volume switched to mostly low/medium-volume at 10:32. B/a at 10:47 was 600:600 $0.7708/99. Lows were up to $0.7740 at 10:49. The period ended on 10:56's 100 $0.7786.
10:57-11:17, after three no-trades minutes, dropped big on 11:00's 4.2K $0.7782/$0.7800 (4K)/$0.7601. B/a at 11:03 was 5.3K:600 $0.7601/$0.78 and at 11:04 jumped back up to $0.7751 to begin an extremely low/no-volume small rise. 11:05's 100 hit $0.7757 and 11:06's 100 hit $0.78. B/a at 11:17 was 300:500 $0.7799/8. The period ended on 11:17's 100 $0.78.
11:18-14:05 Talk about your long extremely low/no-volume flattish period - this was it! ~2.75 hours, ~54.3K volume and a $0.7799/$0.78 spread where someone did enough buying to move by percentage from 31.57% to 47.15%. 41,397 shares, 76.25% of the ~54.3K shares traded, were buys hitting the offer.
B/a at 11:42 was 800:700 $0.7799/$0.78, 12:16 800:300 $0.7799/$0.78. At 12:19 constant pecking of the $0.7799 bid with 100-shares at 1-minute intervals, mostly, began. This lasted through 12:38. B/a at 12:31 was 400:300 $0.7799/$0.78. At 12:43 constant pecking of the $0.7799 bid with 100-shares at 1-minute intervals, mostly, resumed. This lasted through 12:52. B/a at 12:49 was 800:300 $0.7799/$0.78. At 12:55 constant pecking of the $0.7799 bid with 100-shares at 1-minute intervals, mostly, resumed. This lasted through 13:02. B/a at 13:02 was 700:300 $0.7799/$0.78, 13:18 900:400 $0.7799/$0.78, 13:47 500:300 $0.7799/$0.78C. The period ended on 14:05's 1.1K $0.78.
14:06-14:55 began extremely low/no-volume flattish $0.7751/$0.78, another mostly buying period, on 14:09's 1.1K $0.7799/52/1. B/a at 14:18 was 1.9K:300 $0.7754/99, 14:31 1K:300 $0.7755/99 (bids jiggling $0.7754 x 100). Volume was interrupted by 14:45's 16.7K $0.7758 (400)/80/$0.7800 (~9K)/$0.7799 (700)/$0.78. B/a at 14:46 was 2K:300 $0.7760/$0.78, (bid jiggling 200 $0.7759). The period ended on 14:55's 5.1K $0.7781/$0.78.
14:56-15:13 began a mostly medium/high-volume rise from 14:56-:57's 19.5K $0.7800 (~17K)/97/27/00/$0.79 (100)/$0.7800/1/2. 15:07's 2.8K hit $0.786/$0.794 and the rise ended on 15:08's 8.9K $0.7902/41/05/41/03/05/03/41/03/79/03/41/02/01/02/01/00/$0.7894. The period ended on 15:13's 11.6K $0.7811/08/54/08/16/08/$0.7981 (6.5K)/00/$0.7854 ... /$0.7900/04/$0.7808/09/$0.7900/$0.7808/10.
15:14-15:45 began mostly low/medium-volume $0.78/$0.7950 on 15:14's 500 $0.7830/65. Volume was interrupted by 15:21's 12K $0.7891 (4K)/$0.7900 (3.4K)/$0.7891/$0.7900/$0.7894/98/95/98/94/98/90/$0.7900/50/$0.7891/$0.7950/21/$0.7891/$0.7900/$0.7891 and 15:28's 10.9K $0.7900(8.6K)/01/00/01$0.7814/02/01/50/01/50/02/00/02. The lows moved up to $0.7907 at 15:33. B/a at 15:37 was 700:300 $0.7905/10. The period ended on 15:45's 700 $0.7930/62.
15:46-16:00, after a quick high-volume three-minute dip on 15:46-:48's ~28K $0.8000(1.2K)/$0.7924/$0.7989(4K)/$0.7925/$0.7963/$0.7924(1.1K), $0.7925(3.7K)/24/23/22/21/00(5.6K)/$0.7802/$0.7900(2.9K)/$0.7802, 15:47's b/a of 200:1.8K $0.7802/$0.7999, and 15:48's $0.7802/$0.7901/17 (2.6K)/$0.7802 (1.8K), began extremely low-volume $0.7800/5.The period and day ended on 15:59's 2,725 $0.7800/1 (100) and 16:00's 100 $0.80, +2.56% over last 15:59 $0.78.
There was one AH trade, which is suspicious to me: $0.75 x 100, -6.25% from the $0.80 close and -3.85% from the last 15:59 $0.78 trade.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 15 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 106,655, 26.00% of day's volume, with a $0.7837 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the volume and the percentage of day's volume seems normal. The VWAP is slightly above the day's $0.7810, suggesting retail buyers, maybe supplied by MMs after that long apparent accumulation period.
For the most part the VWAP behaved as I would expect and tracked fairly well with the buy percentage.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:46 23520 $0.7500 $0.7800 $17,958.88 $0.7636 5.73% 19.94%
10:18 41280 $0.7600 $0.7601 $31,373.09 $0.7600 10.06% 11.81% Incl 10:01 $0.7600 16,000
10:56 23248 $0.7601 $0.7800 $18,056.70 $0.7767 5.67% 28.40% Incl 10:42 $0.7800 4,300
11:17 5700 $0.7601 $0.7800 $4,441.52 $0.7792 1.39% 31.57%
14:05 54291 $0.7799 $0.7800 $42,345.64 $0.7800 13.24% 47.15%
14:55 28610 $0.7751 $0.7800 $22,286.91 $0.7790 6.97% 52.07% Incl 14:45 $0.7800 4,050 4,000 14:56 11,000
15:13 142679 $0.7800 $0.7981 $112,276.86 $0.7869 34.78% 52.45% Incl 14:59 $0.7900 10,000 15:00 5,700
15:01 $0.7900 6,600 15:02 $0.7885 7,400
15:03 $0.7899 7,900 15:09 $0.7900 4,555
15:12 $0.7900 8,800 15:13 $0.7981 6,450
15:45 45839 $0.7800 $0.7962 $36,194.82 $0.7896 11.18% 48.43% Incl 15:28 $0.7900 5,000
16:00 41200 $0.7800 $0.8000 $32,465.65 $0.7880 10.04% 45.47% Incl 15:47 $0.7900 4,900
16:06 270 $0.7500 $0.7500 $202.50 $0.7500 0.07% 45.44%
You can see that the last 45 minutes was heavy selling by the drop of the buy percentage from 15:13's ~52% to 16:00's ~45% when only ~21% of the day's volume traded. The VWAPs were still "high" though so I have to guess a late-day "sell into strength" occurred and that doesn't bode well going forward. Of course, a late-day sag in buy percentage is quite normal. I guess it's from either day traders or MMs that shorted at higher prices, started moving range down and did some covering buys, at least of the shares not backed by customer sell orders.
Regardless, to have buy percentage end in "no man's land" after the recent spate of positive PRs and the early buy percentage and VWAP rise is not a good omen. Oh! Then there's the reduced volume on an "up" day - close higher than open. Of course we know that close was, um, "suspicious"
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
yesterday I said { However all but volume showed minimal movements. Considering the nature of the order detailed in the PR, and the recent spate of PRs showing the O & G and CCHP sectors returning/growing, these moves are not all that impressive. I think this means we still have only a small cadre of followers in the market and they are likely traders more than investors. } Today seems to bear that out as our movements were even less impressive and even made a lower low. Then there's also that "no man's land" buy percentage mentioned above.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% -1.30% 0.00% 3.23% -30.08%
Prior 1.18% 1.32% 0.13% 1.97% 242.59%
Time for a new minimal chart. I've had to adjust the descending support/resistance (falling red line) as the previous one was no longer in play. Chart snapshot was 4/7, so just pretend that day doesn't appear yet - I do!
) 
On my minimal chart note how our highs seem to be respecting the newly placed descending medium-term resistance (falling red line).
Note also the low stopped honoring the short-term support (rising green line added on prior 3/24 new chart), predicted I guess as yesterday there was no longer a small gap down to the rising line. Again the high is stuck at the $0.80 level, where we have been for four days now, apparently capped as the red line suggests. As mentioned yesterday, { Being unable to get beyond this to test the $0.82/3 known resistance again in light of the PR(s) is a real concern, suggesting there is no real strength in the bullish sentiment. }
The fast EMA stopped falling yesterday and actually rose a half-penny to $0.7697 from the prior day's $0.7647. It was $0.0048 above the still-rising slow EMA. Today the fast EMA rose again, to $0.7844, $0.0144 above the rising slow EMA. Considering the flat top and declining volume though, I think we will again be at risk of seeing the fast EMA cross below the slow EMA in the near future.
The day's range was unable to stay above the rising mid-point, $0.7689, of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. I think this is another sign of weakening.
Thanks to the suspicious close, the day's closing price was above the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit. This means we're "pushing" that limit and historically we've not seen good results from that.
On my one-year chart I've had to replace the long-term descending support/resistance with a medium-term descending resistance to get a (semi-)good fit to the highs since Oct. 21 2016. We have that origin and several touches of it since, most in the last two weeks. If this trend line is valid, and I suspect it is, that matches with our difficulty in rising as we are bumping it frequently now. Best I can tell it's at $0.80 now.
For the following, keep in mind the suspicious nature of the close detailed above!
The 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA, continued rising, now thirteen of fourteen days. The 20-day SMA again rose slightly today to $0.7611 from $0.7568. The gap down to the 20-day yesterday $0.0015 inverted as the 20-day rose to $0.0013 above the 50-day. The 10-day rose for the second consecutive day. This puts these three "in order" - 10 > 20 > 50-day SMA. If our price movement had been showing some ability to move up, I would consider this quite bullish, similar to how we would assess the MACD in this case. The sad fact is though that this configuration has come about as we went essentially sideways long enough that older lower values in the respective 10, 20 and 50-day SMA windows falling off caused the averages to rise.
If we hold here we'll get 9 days (was 4) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 6 days (was 7) of rise, 1 day (was 2 flat, 11 days (was 5) of rise. The 50-day will rise 2 (was 3) days if we hold here, do 1 day flat, and then do 2 days (was 3) down into the short "waves" of now mostly rising and brief periods of falling. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down moves.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had deterioration in accumulation/distribution, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R. Above neutral were RSI, MFI and momentum. Below neutral were Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Nothing was overbought or oversold but full stochastic was very near oversold.
Today had improvement in everything but ADX-related, which deteriorated. Everything but accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related is above neutral. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R are just below overbought. In aggregate, the oscillators are essentially in the same configuration as yesterday but with some have more magnitude. They were showing a more positive mix yesterday and continue that today.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7465 and $0.7964 ($0.7465 and $0.7964 yesterday), stopped converging as both the lower and upper limits went flat. We also have a static mid-point. I just noticed that we've been pushing the upper limit for four days now. This generally has not led to a price rise but the instances in the recent past didn't have flat limits.
All in, as is frequently the case, the conventional TA is at odds with my unconventional stuff detailed in such as the intra-day breakdown and the detailed description of various periods throughout the day.
Only the declining volume suggests that we aren't entering a likely bullish scenario. The oscillators suggest a bullish scenario is becoming more likely. The descending resistance trend lines on the minimal and one-year charts say we are challenging resistance repeatedly. Any rational person would say it's starting to look like there's a decent chance we'll break out.
Then there's me and my TFH. I see the low volume, the artificially boosted close(s) mentioned above and many prior days, buy percentage unable to hold decent levels intra-day, or EOD, and similar negative indicators in the tabular items below.
Since my TFH has been spot-on more often than not, I'm going to stick with that tool as being more often most accurate. So I would read all the above as continued consolidation, at best, A mild negative bias within consolidation seems the next best, and a more likely, scenario.
We've been doing essentially sideways with very small up and down legs since 3/20, short-term consolidation, and a medium-term triangle consolidation since 12/30 (see minimal chart rising orange line and newly placed descending red line). The experimental Bollinger bands have gone flat. The duration of the sideways move and the Bollinger bands are suggesting we should be making a move soon. Further, we are laterally far enough along in the consolidation triangle where a break becomes statistically more likely (typically 50%-65% and greater of the triangle width).
I believe a break will come to the downside. I think it will test the medium-term rising support (rising orange line) and it is likely to hold, as I've stated in the past. Right now it's ~$0.71. Since I don't yet have a strong inkling of when the break will come, I don't have a clue where that line will be when the break happens.
I can tell you it's slope - ~$0.000625/day, or roughly 1 cent each 16 days. So three weeks (about 15 trading days) from now it will be ~$0.72.
I want to repeat what I said yesterday when I closed out this section: { On the bearish side is the inability of buy percentage to sustain an intra-day, and ending, level that suggests appreciation is more likely than not. This implies a couple negative items - shorters being aggressive on any rise and/or momo or day-traders taking advantage of any price rise, leading to my observations of "selling into strength". Also negative is that intra-day periods have been unable to sustain a predominantly upward intra-day trajectory - instead it's most commonly predominantly weakening throughout the day. Normal would be some more frequent up and down as MM and shorter activity battled bullish investors that thought various prices were good add points.
Some of this is due, I think, to the manipulation of the closing and opening prices by the MMs to make their money. The natural effect of that is what we see so often.
The last negative may be the most important - the inability to get above $0.80, either intra-day or on the close. Add in the prior attempt to move above the $0.82 (my $0.83) line was rebuffed quite handily.
Until I see these negative counterpoints significantly abate, I have to remain thinking consolidation, and that with a mild weakening bias. }
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, abnormal, but the good news is the short percentage fell to near the middle of my desired range (needs re-check), The bad news is the buy percentage improved only marginally, going from suggesting near-term weakness to suggesting nothing - "no man's land".
The spread widened and was produced by a not uncommon open high, $0.78, and a quick drop to $0.76, the official low, and an also not uncommon flattish, rise, flattish, rise, ... and later in the day a little down and rise into the close hitting ... Are you ready for it? TA-DA $0.80 at 15:56, dropping back to $0.7802 by 15:47 and, by the grace of God and the MMs (are they one-and-the-same?) closed on 16:00's $0.80 x 100, +2.56% over last 15:59 $0.78.
Well, if they can do that, I can include 270-share AH trades at $0.75 in my metrics and note the spread would then be 6.67%.
Either way, the spread is wider than what I would expect in consolidation and I think it suggests that a change should be near. Moreover, it's been this way two of the last three days, complete with the MM's gift of official closes higher by a substantial margin than the last trades in the prior minute.
Somebody's earning their keep holding this price up.
In spite of the flat close, the VWAP weakened and ended very near that long, flat 11:18-14:05 period's $0.78 VWAP.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, for the third day, held steady at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 03/03 is $0.0296, 3.93%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960%, 0.0971%, -0.2042%, and -0.0667%.
All in, what sways me today are the buy percentage being "no man's land" or worse for five consecutive days and 12 of the last 14 days, the lower VWAP, the inability of the rolling 24-period VWAP average change unable to make a and sustain a positive trend, and the constant manipulation of at least the close.
That leaves me at best-case scenario, as usual, consolidation with a mild negative bias. But we've entered the period now when I suspect worse is coming.
Bill
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