To Gold Runner (Nelderand) and others:
First, all of us who follow AMEP closely appreciate your particularly detailed chart projections for this company. Personally, I have no real competence in TA (technical analysis -- "charting"), but what I do know supports all of what you so diligently post and project.
My holdings in AMEP were purchased (at an average share price of $0.0335, a bit over three pennies each) based upon the remarkable asset fundamentals (not the TA) of the company. For those of us who know, I needn't list in any detail the known hydrocarbon reserves of AMEP's lease properties, the high corporate working interests for these, the ability to drill wells in-house, etc. Your TA fleshes out the profound fundamentals of AMEP.
Wells have been drilled, logged, frac-ed, and frac water is being retrieved. As Greeneyedhawk as pointed out, it's now merely a matter of time, probably a few weeks or so, before actual continuing, dollar-producing production begins, the actual topic of this posting.
Over on the generally vapid Raging Bull AMEP board, you've posted that investors will soon "discount" future production gains into the AMEP share price. Might I suggest that you discard the "discount" word and substitute the terms "project" or "projections."
The future share prices of AMEP are not going to be "discounted," reduced in value when production begins. The ever-ramping production numbers will be very positively "projected" into the daily share prices. Unless production declines, there will be no "discounting."
Based upon the on-site reports of a number of posters here (Greeneyeedhawk, in particular), along with remotely known and posted company information, those of us who’ve done our homework know -- just as your charts project -- that when production numbers start to appear the share price will begin a steep, rarely-retreating climb to unknown new periodic highs.
In short, this is the last chance to buy AMEP in the less than a dime range. All summer, the price has not pierced the 5 cent support. Those who wanted to bail at these prices have done so. The vast majority of shares are now held by strong hands, by folks like me who won't be selling any shares until the SP gets much higher. Even in the fifty-cent range, a sale will be foolish, as both your TA and asset fundamentals show that a share price in the 70 cent range is very likely to occur within a year.
But will drilling and production increases stop by, say, next August? The greatest returns will be to investors who are looking out five to ten years, when the multiple pay zone strata of the current leases have been fully tapped.
Those who are factoring in only the next few months, whether "discounting" or "projecting," are missing the much larger picture. Frankly, what's going to keep AMEP from reaching a remarkable future profitability? Lack of places to drill? No, they have 7000 acres of leases over the Barnett Shale and other known pay zones. Do they have to hire expensive outside drilling contractors? Nope, they've got their own drilling rigs and are building experience and crews to drill more efficiently. Will the market for AMEP's product decline? Hardly.
For two years or so the AMEP bashers have predicted every sort of bad result for the company. They have been wrong on every account. Yes, progress has been much slower than any of us would have wished or projected. Nonetheless, the AMEP ducks are beginning to align and will soon start marching ever faster (and more visibly) to profound profitability.
New investors should be careful in weighing the discountings of the bashers. Several of us were implying exactly the same thing a year ago, when the share price was half what it is today. I've nearly doubled my investment in a year, and in a few months, it will be a multi-bagger.
From quarter to quarter, AMEP has no where to go but up. It's only a question of the steepness of the slope of the curve. As always, day-traders and short term investors will be in and out, creating typical jags on the curve. But those of us with strong hands, those of us who are looking several years down the road to make our first sells, we will be smiling the entire way. Few investments, in my mind, have such locked-in potential.
--Falconer66a
