Cycle Trading

[Duma]

1st quarter is now closed and the Q's were the big winner at 12%. SPY actually did well at 5.9%, but IWM was a major disappointment at 2.2%.

Note BRK's 5 week fall from an almost 8% peak to close the same as IWM.

Because of the terrible IWM action in 1st quarter, I changed my daily trading to a mix of TNA, TQQQ, and/or SSO. For all of Feb and Mar I was heavy in TQQQ which helped to save the quarter.

For Sector trading the Rebalance plan showed a gross 8.5% (no commissions) gain compared to 5.9% SPY. For an account in the $20K range, expect about .5% cost/qtr in commissions. The Independent plan showed 7.85% with a very low commission cost. Still a long way to go to match 2016 performance, but a good start.

Note the chart below is a weekly chart. Going back to daily trading has changed so much of my thinking. I now think more in terms of weekly yields. Taking out some of the noise makes the market a bit easier to understand for me.