Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[123tom]

March ends with no rally into news.

....but since the bottom at 2.43/2.76 AVXL has made a good rally already. It would appear the peak was made very early ahead of the news timing, and some lucky traders took profit at the 6.64(resistance shoulder zone) peak.

An immediate plunging collapse over 3 days took 6.64 back down to stop at 4.95,and from there ,AVXL made its series of higher lows,to form this wedge,but not a higher high, so the topping zone is a resistance zone so far, and the Capping at all the key points from 6.30-6.00,now includes the 5.90-5.80 area as well, resistance that needs to be overcome. AVXL is coiled up now in a triangle terminal at this 5.75 area.It is likely it has to jump in some direction.
Here's where the tricky part of the game comes in. Has the rally already finished for the current cycle? or is there any fundamental reason why more buyers will buy at increasing prices and force a rally to continue from here.

The opposite side of that is to face the awful notion that the rally is spent now for the current cycle and when the buying dries up,and the next Adam F bash attack begins, the MM's could start collapsing the price down to .....where the technical retrace target zone is....way down at 4.50 a pullback that just gets started when it hits 5 dollars, and the bounce would fail at the 5.50 area and the next 1 dollar collapse would target the 4.50 Fibonacci target.

I think its too soon to anticipate anything that hasn't started yet, and what stands ahead of us now is this current resistance zone (5.80-6.30) as a Fail zone, a short attack zone, waiting to begin....IF the rally is finished.

The technical tracks for the rally on my chart were showing a 2 dollar move from 5.50 to 7.50......Now, instead,we might see a 2 dollar move in the downward direction, from 6.15 to 4.15. or the top at 6.64 to lets say 4.64. the Fibonacci central retrace target is 4.50 area.

and what this would mean for nimble traders IF this becomes the next downwave,if the powers have finished the rally and will slam it down soon...it means buying here at 5.60 or 5.40 is not going to be a good bargain, if they plan to take it back to 4.50.
The battle zone in the game now could be about to start stretching out into a larger playing field, maybe a Range pattern developing from 7.00 to 4.00
time will tell.
While this week was a fizzle for any rally hopes, it doesn't mean a rally cant start next week.
All the price action in recent weeks has been totally technical and mathematic. and so the stair step targets were easy to see. the math proved correct in the picture.
I have no idea what next week will look like. target steps lower are in play,while support steps could hold strong IF the powers want to make a rally from here.

I think we will see a move of 1 dollar in the coming weeks. and maybe 2 dollars. but its possible the move could be a downwave....IF the rally is finished at the 6.64 peak.
If we do get the rally we've been waiting for, the same 7/8/9 dollar targets are still in play on the chart.

It will be very important to closely watch the price action bounce up against resistance in that zone (5.80-6.30) and see who wins that battle. The 5.80 area needs to hold as major support line. the 6.30 resistance needs to be broken thru convincingly and then needs to become the support line for further rally to the 7.50 target zone.
Any decisive Failure to rally thru the Resistance zone (5.80-6.30) could become the trigger for a major downwave to retest 5 dollars and 4.50.

so I am looking at the major swing pattern target of either 7.50 or 4.50.




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