Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

Pricing metrics - a highly effective treatment for alz is worth $15-20 billion according to the market (with Biogen took when their alz drug tanked), and analyst put it at $15 in Biogen analysis. NOW, you have to share that number with the buyer for the risk they are taking, they want some upside. So figure $10-$12 billion for a full buyout if we have FDA accelerated approval for 273 showing great results. So if we only partner, you would expect a package maybe in the range of $5-6 billion in terms of up front money (say $1 billion) and royalties fees for the first 1-3 years (say $1-1.5 billion per year when sales ramped up taking maybe a year). This royalty stream would continue over time and push the valuation higher.

Now you have to discount for the fact that we dont have FDA approval yet. Maybe 50%. So a total buyout would be $5-6 billion, and the partnership deal would be $2.5-3 billion in total with maybe $500-1 billion up front and or committed to finishing the trials and then royalties upon approval. That is why I think Dr. Missling wants to get the p3 running this year, and after 6 mos where the results are proven, he can eliminate the 50% discount and get us a higher price on a buyout or partnership.

Of course this doesn't include Rett,MS, epilepsy or parkinsons which I think adds maybe 50% to any overarching combination deal value.