Tekterra.....you are correct. the best the company can hope for is a "tentative approval" in September. they need to ink a deal soon if they want that date to be final approval to market Rexista. that manufacturing site does indeed need to be inspected as well as test batches sent in. the longer we go without a deal signed just pushes us back further into 2018 for commercialization of Rexista. which then leads to my question why?
is it that he is holding out for too much money? or is it that those who want into the market already have either their own drug or pipeline? Now, Rexista with Podras is an entirely different game but as we know that needs proved and is going to be costly. while the partner would no doubt foot the bill, it leads me to think then Odidi may be expecting too much for Rexista.
NOW, that put aside. lets talk about where the company is. currently, with Focalin and just Seroquel I feel the company can make their bills and be cash neutral at worse and probably cash positive. another ANDA approval which already partnered with MNK would be more than enough to put us over the top.
Just forward trading PE we should be at the $5 to $7 range with just the generics we know about. but, the company really needs to show us they can close the deal with Rexista. They have already told us they are moving away from the generics and into the NDA's. well, that forward guidance is not good if they can't close a deal for the two NDA's they already have. The last presentation they even said they are shelving Regabatin until they can ink a deal due to the cost involved. so that leaves us Rexista.
while I feel we should be trading higher just on the generics we have a deal for and the ones already passed, it does not excuse management from showing us their business plan works. even getting a tentative approval for Rexista is meaningless unless it can be partnered. I do not believe they went to this last conference to raise money however. again, they really should not need too. If they do need too then Rexista deal is way off and we have more problems to worry about than another 5 million dilution with warrants. It means they have an unrealistic expectation of what they have.
the Last presentation in February Penna spoke of having 3 big players lined up that said come back and talk when you have acceptance. OK, they most likely went back and..........what is the result?
the company really needs to close a deal here. otherwise Rexista goes the way of Keppra and Glucophage. approvals are nice but they need to be commercialized to be truly meaningful. for now I am hoping that our true worth with the known generics raises us to where we should be however.
