Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[vidpok45]

I am not sure I understand the short thesis as Voclosporin should command a 2 billion buyout less 20 percent for 80 percent discount of chance of successful phase 3. So figure 1.6 billion buyout, 4-5 times our current share price and who knows when the buyout could come. My guess within a year. That's with no risk from phase 3 except if they shut it down for deaths due to Voclosporin which didn't happen in phase 2, except in the control arm of 2B at 48 weeks and the poorly treated patients from 3rd world countries at the 24 week data. Not really expecting bad news to shut phase 3 down but let's discount it by 20 percent anyway. BP will probably pay 2 billion anyway as it chump change for most of them. Why short this one?