Thrift Savings Plan

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There has been some pretty serious deterioration in the market over the last 10-days even though it is not yet reflected in the S&P 500 price.

The %-of stocks advancing is falling sharply and now sits at just 46%. In other words, only 46% of stocks have advanced over the last 10-days – the majority have gone down. Up-volume shows a similar weakness. Only 43% of volume has been up over the last 10-days and its chart is falling sharply too. New-high/new-low data looks the worst as its chart is in free-fall with new-lows outpacing new-highs.

All of these measures indicate a stock market that is in denial. The little guys are failing, but the S&P 500 and DJI have not yet caught on. In this case, the divergence is not healthy. For the future, the most likely direction for stocks remains down. I reduced stock allocation to 25% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Wednesday, 1 March 2017.

Following up on previous comments, this may not be a Fat Lady event, but how far will it go? At this point we have only guesses. My guess is 5-6% off the top, but anyone can make a good argument for more or less. See my blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/