Good questions; valid concerns — with useful answers.
If Anavex technologies (candidate drugs) are such powerful and safe Alzheimer’s treatments (along with many or most other CNS degenerative diseases), just why are there a) no substantial proclamations of validity from external “experts” or authorities, and b) why no useful press coverage?
Even more concerning is the relatively low share price. It’s been slowly elevating of late; but nonetheless, many of us AVXL longs think fair share prices are many dollars above the current $5 – $6 range (well, many, many dollars more).
First, few people have the biological or chemical knowledge to adequately and sufficiently understand the rather complex biochemical and cellular biology mechanisms by which the Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonists function, how they restore cellular homeostasis.
Most investment advisors and commentators couldn’t even define “cellular homeostasis.” They’d have to (but many haven’t yet) look it up on Google. Nor will they even know what an “agonist” is. Move on to the complexities of mitochondrial connections to the rough endoplasmic reticula, with adenosine triphosphate synthesis and transfer, coupled with calcium ion gating and signaling — all of which folds waste-clearing enzymes properly (and much more), and we have people in way over their heads. To them, sounds lake make-it-up chemical or biological hocus-pocus.
If it’s valid — and they have no way of knowing — it’ll all show up in “proper” Phase 3 double-blind clinical trials. Without those, financial analysts can confidently and powerfully say, “Stay away! The science is unproven. Don’t bet your dollars on such a far-out, yet to be proven medical technology. Remember, billions have been spent trying to find an Alzheimer’s drug. Every one has failed, and so will this one, it appears.”
Only one way around all of this. If FDA approves Anavex 2-73 as a drug to treat the orphan disease Rett Syndrome, and all of a sudden, little girls who have the disease (males seldom if ever have it) start to live normal lives and loving parents become ecstatic about their children’s normalized future, the press will write that up.
The proof will be in the pudding, the treated kids.
Or the pudding may be Down Under, should the Aussies move Anavex 2-73 to their market sooner than the FDA here. It’s one thing for a few “strong responders” to revert back to normalcy in an early clinical trial. Quite another when common citizens report remarkable symptom turn-arounds from a drug they bought at the pharmacy (well, in Australia, at the “chemist”).
Until any of that appears, AVXL equities are likely to stay cheap and not fully appreciated. The game belongs only to the longs.
