MotleyFoolish article on Axovant for chuckles...
Axovant is trying to do something that most biopharma companies have failed to accomplish: develop a new Alzheimer's disease drug. Alzheimer's disease is notoriously tough to tackle, and the success rate for developing drugs targeting it is absolutely disheartening. Historically, over 99% of Alzheimer's disease drugs entering clinical trials end up in the dustbin.
Business people run around a busy street catching money that's falling from the sky
Odds like that make investing in Alzheimer's disease drug developers like Axovant risky business, but there are two reasons why investors might want to lean optimistic. First, Axovant's C-suite includes Lawrence Friedhoff, who led the development of Aricept, one of the best-selling Alzheimer's disease drugs of all time. Second, Axovant's lead drug in development -- intepirdine -- is being studied for use alongside Aricept, rather than on its own.
In trials, Friedhoff's team successfully proved that Aricept can prevent the breakdown of acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter that's lacking in Alzheimer's disease patients, and now he hopes his team can prove that intepirdine boosts acetycholine production. If successful, then a combination approach of these drugs that increases acetylcholine levels and allows acetylcholine to last longer in the brain could become standard care.
According to ClinicalTrials.gov, the estimated completion date for this combination study is October, so we should have data to examine before the end of this year. To be considered a success, the approach will need to meet primary endpoints measuring the change in baseline at 24 weeks on two Alzheimer disease measurement scales: the ADAS-Cog-11 and the ADCS-ADL.
Undeniably, the history of drug development in Alzheimer's disease suggests that Axovant's chances for success are small. However, the potential payoff could be tremendous. Axovant's market cap is only $1.1 billion, and prior to losing patent protection, Aricept's peak sales were $2.4 billion per year.
