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CND

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Alias Born 02/20/2017

CND

Re: SF Wolf post# 1199

Thursday, 02/23/2017 11:19:26 AM

Thursday, February 23, 2017 11:19:26 AM

Post# of 21540
Hey Wolf. I’m in on this deal at the terms of the last equity raise so I am extremely happy and likewise optimistic. I hope we all make a lot of money. But in your binary betting scenario, I would think that an odds maker with little to no knowledge of NTRP would probably establish odds of 90-95% on the results being negative. This is because if you look at many of these types of pharma situations where a company with no revenues is in trials, probably the vast majority will fail. I’m not arguing that this is a typical scenario. There may be reasons to be more optimistic in the case of NTRP like you mention. But just arguing that the opening odds, if you will, would be more in the 90-95% of a likely failure.
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