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Thursday, 02/23/2017 8:24:13 AM

Thursday, February 23, 2017 8:24:13 AM

Post# of 21531
Why Neurotrope is not a 50/50 binary bet.

Binary betting is a type of financial betting which displays the price of a bet as an odds index from 0 to 100 where the bet settles at 100 if an event happens and 0 if it does not. The greater the likelihood of an event happening the higher this price will be.
Binary betting - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_betting

If there was little or no public information about NTRP’s soon to be released Top Line results of their Phase 2b study on the efficacy of Bryostatin in treating Alzheimer’s disease, an odds maker in that case, would assign a 50/50 chance.

But that is not the case with Neurotrope. We have had two public investor presentations by Neurotrope’s Dr. Alkon and Dr. Wilke in the last three weeks. That is where you will find the most up to date information (see notes and links below).

What odds would I assign that NTRP releases ground breaking AD research results? My odds: 80/20

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Notes and links:
My Notes of Drs. Alkon and Wilke at the BIO CEO & Investor Conference 2/13/17

Dr. Wilke:
Minute 4:14: we are unique in that we are stating that we can regenerate synapses and synaptic networks. And by regenerating these synapses and synaptic networks we can actually reverse Alzheimer’s disease even in advanced patients.

Minute 4:29: we believe we have a uniquely regenerative mechanism that actually will show strong clinical benefit in our clinical trial which is different than just treating or preventing the formation of amyloid plaque.

Minute 5:18: we are pretty excited about our upcoming Phase 2 top line data in April 2017, as I said in moderate to severe AD patients, which we believe will be a pivotal inflection point for the company

Dr. Alkon:
Minute 17:54: I do want to say that Bryostatin is one of a platform of drugs that we have. It is our lead compound now because it has experience in the patient population and we know it’s well tolerated. But we have 40 or so other compounds some of which are even more potent and even more specific and have proprietary composition of matter protection which we can use for second and third generation of drugs.

Minute 23: (Bryostatin) is well positioned to virtually…take care of every major aspect of this disease. So it is multi modal, multi modal means that we can look at prevention, slowing down progression, and actual reversal of Alzheimer’s disease. Which is what is in our current Phase 2 trial.

Minute 25:45 (refer to Slide 40 – Bryostaten Compassionate Use Program: Severe Alzheimer’s Disease “No other reports have ever shown comparable benefits in such severely demented patients”) These are our compassionate use patients…we saw major reversal of disease that’s why we teed-up our Phase 2 trial in the way we did for severe (Alzheimer’s) patients to see reversal. To see not just a reduction in the rate of decline…but a flipping, a changing of the sign of what happens, for example, with the preferred metric of advanced Alzheimer’s disease, the Severe Impairment Battery.

https://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bio/ceoinvestor2017/18111483071.cfm


My notes of Susanne Wilke, PhD, Chief Executive Officer of Neurotrope, presentation at the Noble Financial Capital on 1/30/17:

Minute 8:25 "we are seeing remarkable results in reversal of Alzheimer's Disease"

Minute 10:41 "with this license we are able to synthesize Bryostatin in larger commercial quantities"

Minute 17:58 "we have compassionate use protocol results in Alzheimer patients that shows significant improvement in cognition and daily living..."

Minute 18:25: “we have Phase 2a completed which was a smaller Phase 2. We achieved our primary safety endpoint, we saw targeted engagement and we saw some limited cognitive enhancement in a short period of time.

Minute 26:42: “we are testing in late stage patients to make the point of a significant reversal (in AD). This treatment should be applicable to moderate to early stage to MCI (mild cognitive impairment) patients.

Top line results in April.

http://noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/c54248f852db4353b8f007b16745782b1d



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