Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Biobillionair]

G- "only BB was entitled to submit more than one guess due to ... "

Biobillionair: stop / Jun. 30. / Sep. 29. / 41.00% **

Above 80% event June 30 was based on model, model updated with P/Y update. I rebuilt the x-axis, it matches Amarin guidance and December 31, 2017 P/Y 32,900.

Final composite ~ 4.9% 80% (event) should have occurred mid February...but efficacy should push 80% event out. Not out to June; note the change is due to updated x-axis, which has always been planned with any updated information from Amarin.

If I had to guess the placebo rate it would be >6%. 75% of R-I is likely to be type 2 DM.

Composite ~ 4.9%
Placebo >6% (From my professional experience it's reasonable to assume 6/100 metabolic disease patients, diabetics with high trigs, would have an event over the coarse of 1 year. My job is to manipulate physiology so these patients don't have acute events when they have surgery. The population of patients I serve are very very high risk, on occasion they are actively having 'an event'.)
Active arm ~ 3.9%
3.9/6 = RRR = 35% give me +/- 5% error and the range is ~ 30%-40%. If 80% event is pushed out to March-April then I guess we'll be in the upper range.

1612 will occur in 2017 as guided by Amarin.

My model will update with any new information of P/Y or 80% news.

This fight is personal to me.

BB