NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Barunuuk]

DCVax-L P3 has 58.1% chance of success

Yes, that's right, nearly 60% chance of success. That is better than flipping a coin. So, if a rich friend of yours said, hey, I will give you 100 to 1 odds that I get heads if I flip a coin, how much would you bet? $500? And potentially get $50K... $5000? and potentially get $500K? Granted you could lose that money too. If NWBO's P3 is successful, the share price will be a minimum $45 a share, could be higher at $100 - $200 a share, at least with the initial pop. I wouldn't care if I lost the $5K, that is well worth the risk.

And that is why I believe this is an amazing investment! Especially right now!

58% (see page 7 of
https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf )

Also, just because I like to be conservative, oncology P3 rates are actually lower, at 40% (page 11) so better than 1/3. However, even at that lowered percentage, the reward, out weighs the risk. It would be like picking the short toothpick from 2 long toothpicks. And with the PFS data we know to date, to me, mathematically, it pushes that probability over 50% easily!!!

PS, reversely, Oncology NDA submissions have the highest success rate of ~89%.