Just got my fill on 300 units of ALDW at $9.65.
A few things to be considered:
1. On the 28th of this month of February, we'll be receiving the $0.11/unit quarterly distribution. We go EX-D on the 16th.
Effectively, then, my purchase price today is $9.54.
2. Winter is the lowest part of the earnings cycle for this stock and other refiners, too. While my longer term expectation holds that this stock is going to eclipse and/or surpass $27 by year end, I believe it reasonable to anticipate that units will be fetching $12 before Summer's maxi-driving cycle reaches full stride. That means (to me) that seasonal cyclicality assures a significant rise in valuation starting in the second half of February and continuing through March April, May, and the first half of June, should my call for $12 be somewhat accurate.
Assuming it is, then we stand to reap an interesting harvest in terms of capital appreciation between now and June 15th. We're talking about a third of a year to gain the spread between $12 and today's $9.54(effectively speaking after backing out the distribution in just over a week).
The difference comes to $2.46/unit. The gain amounts to 20.5%. Annualized (multiply the four month waiting period by three), we get three times 20.5% or 61% plus the next quarter's distribution.
This is a highly unusual level of potential gain through not only appreciation but also yield as there are several factors contributing to a strong likelihood of very significant rise in valuation. A few of these follow.....
ALDW is priced right now at $9.59, even lower than my morning's trade price. I'll add units as soon as I get this posted.
Any time I can buy this pick in advance of upheavals very likely due to OPEC moves designed to force a raise in the price of crude, I smell opportunity. And I am convinced OPEC is going to make a move.
President Trump has his key players lined up and with energy independence a top priority, we need to expect at least something that will prove favorable to our smaller refiners. How soon? No way to predict but I'll bet anybody here $15 that something good will be happening by June.
Anything affecting global oil production, whether in Iran or Iraq or Saudi Arabia or Nigeria or any of the Arabic coalition (bloc) resulting in turbulence will drive crude prices higher with explosiveness we've not seen in years.
ALDW is a major player when we discuss asphalt. It's the stuff used to effect road repairs which, again, connects a couple of dots involving Trump-inspired campaign pledges.
NOT adding units of ALDW at these depressed levels won't be my approach to solidifying a share in opportunity. I have so much love for my country, respect for our President as he goes about his job, proving to one and all, whether domestic or foreign, friend or foe, that America will not be lying down any time soon, acquiescing to those who bark louder.
My motto:
Today, ISIS but tomorrow IS WAS!
