Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[NWDR]

Anavex will eventually trade for ~$800 to $1000 per share, within the next 5 years. This statement is conditioned by A2-73 continuing to alter the course of AZ and be proven effective at treating a myriad of other CNS diseases.

Calculations

millions
AZ Epilepsy Parkinsons
US 5.3 2.2 1.0
EU 5.3 2.6 1.0
Japan 1.8 1.0 0.5

Total 20.7

Assume 25% treated, 5.2M
Assume $6k per year rev, $31.05B per year
Assume 50% rev share with BP partnership, $15.53 revenue to Anavex
Assume 55M shares outstanding
Some dilution but I'm assuming that the share count remains
relatively low as costs are covered by BP partnership milestone
payments and grants.
Assume 25% profit margin
EPS ($15.53B * .25)/55M = $70.57 per share.
PE of 10, pps of $70
PE of 15, pps of $1058

add in dementia, insomnia, pain management, cancer and the numbers are
staggering.

GILD bought their primary HCV drug for $11B. That's my first market cap target for AVXL at which I will sell half and let the rest ride.

Cheers... and a reminder... these calculations are meaningless if A2-73
doesn't prove effective and never comes to market.