Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[raja48185]

Fair statement - I agree. But does not mean that it cannot happen (As things can change especially because we are talking of AD, PD here and the Billions of dollars that a potent drug can earn Y-O-Y Worldwide). This is still a long shot at this stage, and your statement makes more sense for now, but with time BP will be paying exponentially more, IF AVXL can address AD/PD via a drug that works.

I believe, initially, PD trial's success will power the company towards a brighter future

Consider a scenario ( a hypothetical one for now assuming that AVXL can have a potent drug )

AVXL is conducting relatively short P2 for PD and Rhett and the data read out should be well before the EOY 2017, depending on when they start the trial. If it shows stellar results [PD in particular, then at least a couple of things may happen - a sort of cascading effect

Do you think the market cap can go that much closer to that magical figure of billion in no time (given that PD has no cure as such). This event can happen in 2017 itself.

If the above phenomenon does happen, then it can jolt BP to take notice about AVXL's AD trial too. That is when they will have to decide, whether to wait for a competitor to make the first move and then make a counter/higher offer, or try to make the first move. This is where potential for billions of dollars of revenue per year comes into play and not the market cap, while they decide on the Buyout offer.

What may get even more interesting is the fact that, if PD results are going to drive market cap to that billion dollar mark, then do you think why AVXL cannot go alone - by raising capital via a minor dilution, but from a position of strength, as the big boys would want to grab a piece of the pie that would give them returns X10 to X15.

The power of data will drive the economics of a buyout, if any.