Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[imho]

I agree, a good post. You, frrol and a few others do a great job of keeping it real. A further comment on the analyst's complete quote:

Conservatively, we assess a 18% probability of success for the Alzheimer’s disease program given the promising Phase 2 data and the need for a safe and efficacious therapeutic for mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s patients. We conservatively assume that ANAVEX 2-73 will capture ~10% of the estimated market with peak year sales of $6B

We can think of it as a risk reward phrase. The first sentence is rather cautious but prudent and points out the risk. The second sentence is the reward. If you google the "typical" price to sales of biotech's, you get around 5. Therefore, he is projecting a 5*6B market cap or $30B. If there is no dilution and using 40M shares outstanding, we get a projected stock price of $750. Conservative and a lot of if's and assumptions going forward, but worth noting.

IMHO