Followers | 681 |
Posts | 141576 |
Boards Moderated | 35 |
Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Monday, January 30, 2017 9:23:29 AM
By Carl Swenlin
* January 29, 2017
After correcting nearly -20% from the July 2016 top, gold rallied off the December low, hitting a rally high on Monday. Then it spent the rest of the week correcting, dropping below horizontal support set last year. It also dropped below the 20EMA and 50EMA, which action turned those EMAs down and caused the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) to top. A very short-term positive on this chart is that Friday's price closed near the top of the day's range, hinting at a short-term bottom.
In November a long-term SELL signal was generated when the 50EMA crossed down through the 200EMA, a condition which tells us that the gold market has a bearish bias.
Note also that, in spite of the recent rally, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) closed-end fund continued to sell at a discount.* This shows that investor sentiment never did turn bullish, something that needs to happen for a rally to be sustained.
I can never write about gold without showing a long-term monthly chart in order to provide the over all context. After the parabolic rise into the 2011 top, gold broke down, declining nearly -50% into the November 2015 low, which was possibly the end of the gold bear market. Rallying from there it stalled at the long-term declining tops line. Finally, it pulled back toward the horizontal support at about 1050. The monthly PMO has topped, and this chart is still bearish.
The weekly chart is more positive because the weekly PMO has bottomed; however, it is a rather shallow bottom.
The strength or weakness of the U.S. Dollar, of course, has a strong influence on the price of gold. Gold and the dollar are not exactly reciprocal, but a strong dollar will keep gold down. On a weekly chart below the ETF for the dollar (UUP) broke out of a bullish flag formation, but the rally stalled at overhead resistance. The weekly PMO top implies that that the dollar is headed still lower, which, of course, would be a plus for gold.
CONCLUSION: Gold remains in a bear market. There is some thin evidence to support a bullish outlook, but sentiment is still bearish.
* Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is a closed-end fund that trades like a stock. As such it can trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value.
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
Happy Charting!
- Carl
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2017/01/gold-rally-stumbles.html
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
Recent GOLD News
- Barrick’s Sustainability Strategy Delivers Real Value to Stakeholders • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/15/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Barrick Announces Extensive Exploration Partnership with Geophysx Jamaica • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/01/2024 10:15:00 AM
- Barrick to Ramp Up Production As It Remains On Track to Achieve 2024 Targets • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/01/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Barrick Declares Q1 Dividend • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/01/2024 09:59:00 AM
- Barrick Announces Election of Directors • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/30/2024 08:15:55 PM
- Barrick On Track to Achieve 2024 Targets • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/16/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Notice of Release of Barrick’s First Quarter 2024 Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/09/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Strategy-Driven Barrick Builds on Value Foundation • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/28/2024 09:20:38 PM
- Barrick Hunts New Gold and Copper Prospects in DRC From Kibali Base • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/20/2024 02:00:00 PM
- Barrick Opens Academy at Closed Buzwagi Mine • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/18/2024 08:00:00 AM
- Barrick to Grow Production and Value on Global Asset Foundation • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/15/2024 11:53:01 AM
- Loulo-Gounkoto Delivers Another Value-Creating Performance • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/10/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Passing of the Right Honorable Brian Mulroney • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/02/2024 01:17:35 AM
- Kibali and DRC Partner to Promote Local Content • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/01/2024 02:22:43 PM
- Tanzanian Parliamentary Committee Lauds Barrick’s Work at North Mara • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/23/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 10:28:08 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 08:05:25 PM
- Clear Strategies and Strong Partnerships Set Barrick Up to Outperform, Says Bristow • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Barrick Announces New Share Buyback Program • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 10:59:00 AM
- Barrick Declares Q4 Dividend • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 10:58:00 AM
- NGM Strongly Positioned for Growth • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/10/2024 01:00:16 AM
- Form SC 13G - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 03:03:08 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 12:46:55 PM
- Geologically Driven Asset Management Delivers Barrick’s Third Successive Year of Reserve Growth at Sustained Quality, While Unlocking Embedded Growth Portfolio • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/08/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/01/2024 06:04:56 PM
Avant Technologies Engages Wired4Tech to Evaluate the Performance of Next Generation AI Server Technology • AVAI • May 23, 2024 8:00 AM
Branded Legacy, Inc. Unveils Collaboration with Celebrity Tattoo Artist Kat Tat for New Tattoo Aftercare Product • BLEG • May 22, 2024 8:30 AM
"Defo's Morning Briefing" Set to Debut for "GreenliteTV" • GRNL • May 21, 2024 2:28 PM
North Bay Resources Announces 50/50 JV at Fran Gold Project, British Columbia; Initiates NI 43-101 Resources Estimate and Bulk Sample • NBRI • May 21, 2024 9:07 AM
Greenlite Ventures Inks Deal to Acquire No Limit Technology • GRNL • May 17, 2024 3:00 PM
Music Licensing, Inc. (OTC: SONG) Subsidiary Pro Music Rights Secures Final Judgment of $114,081.30 USD, Demonstrating Strength of Licensing Agreements • SONGD • May 17, 2024 11:00 AM