Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

Report by H.C.Wainwright Update 23-Jan-2017

Price Target $10. We anticipate a revival in investor interest and share value through 2017. This is the year when our bull thesis on Amarin is likely to start coming into play. Now, as we reach the final year of the six-year REDUCE-IT outcome study (last cardiovascular event set to occur near YE17), it is worthwhile to highlight again the potential drivers of value in the year ahead:
(1) continued Vascepa growth in TRx and NRx, expected to put company in cash flow-positive territory this year;
(2) REDUCE-IT second interim readout on tap for before 3Q17 (see our analysis below);
(3) REDUCE-IT topline data in 2018 (we expect a statistically significant win).
We believe that ahead of and through these catalysts, and in anticipation of REDUCE-IT topline, Amarin shares are likely to start trending upward, as old investors familiar with the story finally start re-engaging, following their outflow after the disappointing ANCHOR AdCom in Oct 2013 and their long wait for value-driving developments since. We advise our audience to position ahead of this potential revival trend, and reiterate our Buy rating and a $10 price target.

REDUCE-IT second interim look has higher probability of success than first interim. In terms of the key REDUCE-IT study, the second interim study is on tap for mid-2017........From our perspective, the tracking of guidance to our projections dictates that pooled placebo and treatment are exactly in line with expectations of the desired risk reduction.

Boding well for REDUCE-IT: independent study shows early initiation of EPA resulted in 11% absolute risk reduction in MACE as well as a one year mortality benefit compared to statin alone in patients with acute coronary syndromes.......

Link:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShheER1SENPT2Z0Z0k/view?usp=sharing