Nothing Much Until a Big PR
I have no investment proficiencies or useful perspectives, so these comments have no applicable meaning; but worthy of consideration, nonetheless.
Many here have been perplexed by the failure of the market (in the form of markedly advancing share prices --- absent so far) to recognize Anavex's great future. A few of us here have recognized that future and have taken (and will continue to take) ever-larger AVXL positions. Accumulation, I believe, is the term.
But, frankly, the general market, whether retail or institutional, simply hasn't bought in to any of Anavex's projected future. Share prices are rather static, in a narrow trading range. How come?
Several factors suppress AVXL share prices. The biggest, I think, is that Anavex Life Sciences Corp is a new, start-up pharmaceutical, with no drugs that can be sold. No revenues; merely the possibility of FDA approval of Anavex 2-73 sometime in the distant future (if at all).
Compounding the lack of an approved drug to sell is that the company is focusing its premier pipeline drug, Anavex 2-73 on, of all diseases, Alzheimer's. Couldn't pick a target disease that would generate more skepticism. All are aware of the multitude of previous Alzheimer's drug candidates that have failed safety and efficacy tests, after the expenditure of billions of research and trials dollars. Few potential buyers of AVXL shares are able to distinguish Anavex's unique therapy, the facility of their Sigma-1 receptor agonist, and how that effectively treats root-causes of Alzheimer's (mitochondrial/ER dysfunction, resulting in mis-folded enzymes, disrupting normal neuron homeostasis), compared to the always-failed attempts to pharmacologically remove amalyoid and tau waste proteins.
After watching all of this for many months, I find no reason to believe the current status of investor confusion or misinformation will in any useful way be improved --- UNTIL, Anavex can release some big, substantiating news. What must that be? Not sure. FDA approval of Anavex 2-73 for Rett Syndrome should change investor perceptions. Not much potentional revenue, as Rett Syndrome is infrequent or rare. But the safety and therapeutic efficacy for a recognized disease should open a few eyes.
The big PR, of course, would be the release of new Alzheimer's trial data showing in more detail safety and efficacy. Whether that will require a lengthy, expensive big Phase 3 trial is unknown. Will just have to watch.
Personally, I'm certain the safety and efficacy of Anavex 2-73 will eventually be substantiated in a form that leads to FDA approval. When and how that might happen is yet a mystery. Until then, I will not be surprised if AVXL continues to trade in a rather narrow range. I'll continue to hold and accumulate shares. When the market finally realizes the potential future value of AVXL, I won't be able to afford any more share purchases. Gonna be fun to watch the rush for shares after FDA approval.
Til then, just waiting.
AI
