NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Doktornolittle]

$5.88/sh on Great Results!!! What? Buzz Kill

So you think Woodford might almost break even on great results? Woodford must not be very good at investing.

Your 170M shares might be accurate. I assume you are including outstanding warrants. But $1B for outstanding results? GBM alone has a net present value of $5B on approval according to a major league source. That would have to be for great results on the broad GBM population, thus full approval for all GBM.

Right now, more realistic might be a $3.4B valuation. That would be about $20/sh. That was Smith's estimate. I think it could reach that with approval for half the GBM population. Why not linear? Not sure... just think that is where it would go. If you look at Celldex's GBM trial and what % population it covered and the valuation that was expected on approval, I think you would come to about $20/sh for us at half the GBM population, if it is an easily identifiable half.

Many drugs are applicable to a specific cancer. DCVax-L and DCVax-Direct are applicable to all solid tumor cancers. So approval here would set a panic in the hearts of some Big Pharma's. The panic of being left out. You know that panic as a long investor in risky biotech stocks. So much higher buyout valuations are possible if the right companies get worried.