Hi Toby,
Nice to be remembered. I've been watching the board closely over the last six months or so as the price rise made it fun to follow again. It's nice to see so many of the old timers have held long enough to get a great return on the investment. Not as far or fast as we had hoped, but anyone who sold lately or is holding is in the green. It's unfortunate are gone, by choice or father time.
Given my age, desire to retire and experience on this roller coaster since 1999, I have an exit strategy. When the stock hit it's all time high of $86, I sold 25% of my position. Two days later Apple signs. Great news, I hope. It will let me sell my remaining position at levels were I can retire with enough to keep me happy.
I don't know what the Apple contract means. The immaterial change to the 2017 revenue projection does not indicate a home run. If it leads to us getting the majority of the market signed, then we'll get to the goal of $500-$600 million of revenue. I trust management has a plan to expand earnings by signing this. I hope we get some detail from the company.
Unfortunately we have dilution from the convertible debt, still don't know the purpose when we were swimming in cash, so our earnings per share are going down about 10% because of it. Yes, we got paid for the stock, but cash is valued as cash, earnings per share get a multiple. I've loved the share buybacks which has reduced our outstanding shares, so we sold some back at a profit.
I continue to be optimistic about the future. I believe Apple will give us a firmer base for earnings and share price, but has lowered the ceiling on potential earnings. Stability and market share in exchange for the hoped for higher rate. So now market risk becomes a much bigger factor. With the market at an all time high I am a bit wary about a potential downturn for the market in general. Without getting political, I see more potential volatility with the new president. Could be good or bad, but I don't want crazy now, I want stable. So that's why I am executing an exit strategy. Next sell point will be in the triple digits.
I hope all is well with you.
