Good questions — for which answers aren’t so clear.
If, as I’ve contended, all Big Pharma insiders see the profound implications of the Anavex story, why isn’t Anavex then being favorably approached by each and every one of these firms. They know the story, and they have drug synthesizing, packaging, and marketing structures to take Anavex 2-73 right to the market, once FDA approval is attained. They’ve all conducted big clinical trials, so they know how to do those, too. And they have the funds to make all of this happen.
They’d just want some sort of mutually-favorable deal with Anavex, to be certain.
Now here, my reasoning and conjectures are entirely speculative, not based upon any personal knowledge or expertise whatsoever.
I would be surprised to learn that Anavex hasn’t been approached, very quietly and privately, by any number of Big Pharma execs, each with a differing set of proposed collaborations or deals.
Certainly, were this to happen (I have every reason to believe it is happening), no Big Pharma is going to let a word of this out to the public, nor to any competitor. Each wants to make the best collaboration or buy-out offer to Anavex. Letting competitors know one’s requirements for such discloses advantages to them. Keep it all quiet, behind closed doors, with cabs waiting in back alley doorways.
What do Big Pharma execs do? Try to work out collaborations with Anavex, sharing developmental costs and sales revenues? Would one Pharma determine that for them, they’d make out best by doing most of the marketing and distribution; another company might want to do everything, as quickly as possible, with favorable licensing and franchising revenues off to Anavex? The multitude of variations on any of these arrangements are the semester paper assignments for MBA students. Beyond my ken, for sure.
At the same time, there must be buy-out offers. Anavex’s proprietary molecules get bought out in their entirety, at giant prices and continuing franchise fees. Share buy-out and concomitant share-for-share trade ratios would be negotiated. (I’ve pondered this: knowing what I perceive to be the company’s future exponential worth — counting the many zeros — at what price would I be satisfied in selling all of my shares to a new buy-out company. More likely, on my part, a duel deal; at what price do I sell my shares, along with what number of new-company shares do I also get for participating in the deal?)
That last scenario is one all AVXL shareholders may have to act upon, if there would be shareholders’ vote on a buy-out. At the right price, with the right number of new company shares in return, I’d vote for such a measure — but right now I have no idea what would be acceptable terms for me. They’d be very favorable for me, of course.
One important point. It is not the goal or purpose of any pharmaceutical company to cure any disease. It is solely to financially reward the company’s owners, the shareholders.
I perceive that Anavex principals are savvy and attentive to all of this. Better than anyone, they can see the Big Anavex Picture. The officers have substantial share holdings, which would be devalued by any bad deals with Big Pharma. Their self-interest then works for mine. Maximize the value of Anavex and its future products. All AVXL shareholders will benefit.
And, so will Alzheimer’s patients, so wonderfully.
(Would love to learn about the back-room, closed door, private online discussions going on right now. Will be big chapters, probably a book, in future corporate studies manuals.)
