Not interested in a share-for-share collaboration with Biogen.
As always, none of these comments are intended as buy or sell guidance for AVXL shares. Just my personal perspectives.
I just purchased another small number of AVXL, around $3.80. I’m confident this will, in a year or more, be a very rewarding investment.
But I’ve punched a few numbers on this, in conjectured speculation of both future AVXL share prices and potential dividends, should Anavex 2-73 prove to be a viable, successful Alzheimer’s treatment and/or prophylactic (as the data presently so strongly suggest).
I will not post my spreadsheet here. Each, should you wish, needs to punch his own numbers. Here, as I’ve seen it, are the figures to play with.
First, what might be the potential market for A2-73, starting purely with Alzheimer’s patients who could be treated? One authoritative source states that presently — with greatly increasing numbers in years ahead — 5.3 million Americans suffer with the disease. Worldwide, 44 million are affected.
Next, what would annual A2-73 treatment costs be? How many dollars will come to Anevex from each treated patient each year? What revenues might Anavex yield from A2-73 sales in a few years for Alzheimer’s?
Lastly, then, how much of those A2-73 corporate revenues would drop down into distributed dividends? What would be the annual per-dividend payout?
Then, consider Parkinson’s disease, for which A2-73 is very likely to show efficacy. An authoritative source claims about 500,000 Americans have this disease presently, with approximately 50,000 new diagnoses each year. Run the same calculation ranges with these numbers.
A2-73 and other molecules in the Anavex pipeline will have expanded applications for other chronic and debilitating diseases. What might revenue and dividend outcomes be for those?
And, these conjectures are solely American; but all of the indicated conditions exist in the rest of the Western, even entire world. What will be the elevating revenue factors with worldwide A-73 sales and applications?
It is not useful for me to reveal my calculations. Do your own. Clearly, a one-for-one share trade with a Biogen, yielding a new share price between $100 and $300 or so looks enticing. But when considering longer-term, continuing, multi-disease revenue streams, those numbers are minute. I want Anavex to expand to a full-sized, self-contained pharmaceutical, collaborating only as initially necessary. With such, continuing shareholder payouts will be orders of magnitude greater than the single share exhange.
