November 23, 2016
12:42 EDT
LLY
theflyonthewall.com:
10:44 EDT
LLY
theflyonthewall.com:
Analysts hold out hope for Biogen drug after Lilly's Alzheimer trial fails
Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) are plunging after the drugmaker announced that a Phase 3 study showed that solanezumab failed to slow loss of cognitive ability in patients with mild Alzheimer's disease. The news is also dragging down competitor Biogen (BIIB), which is developing its own Alzheimer's drug. FAILED CLINICAL TRIAL: Eli Lilly announced that its solanezumab drug did not meet the primary endpoint in the EXPEDITION3 clinical trial, a phase 3 study in people with mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. Patients treated with the drug did not experience a statistically significant slowing in cognitive decline compared to patients treated with placebo. Lilly will not pursue U.S. regulatory submissions for solanezumab for the treatment of mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. During an interview on CNBC, the company's CEO John Lechleiter said Eli Lilly is disappointed with the results, but remains committed to Alzheimer's. SELLOFF AN ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITY: While viewing the clinical results as a "disappointing outcome," JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott told investors that Eli Lilly has a diverse range of new product and pipeline opportunities that support 5% sales growth and mid-teens earnings growth. Moreover, he sees the selloff as an "attractive opportunity." He reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock, but lowered his price target on the shares to $85 from $95. His peer at Jefferies also remains bullish on Eli Lilly, reiterating a Buy rating and $100 price target on the shares. Analyst Jeffrey Holford noted that the company's management still expects to grow revenue between 2015 and 2020, while expanding margins. Further, the co mpany is still pursuing the Alzheimer's indication through a number of other programs, Holford told investors in a research note of his own. BIOGEN DRUG CAN STILL WORK: Following the failure of Eli Lilly's solanezumab, Citi analyst Robyn Karnauska told investors that she sees four reasons why Biogen's Alzheimer's drug aducanumab can still work, namely the difference in mechanism of action, efficacy in an end-point-dependent manner, patient population and endpoints. Piper Jaffray analyst Joshua Schimmer voiced a similar opinion, arguing that the "amyloid hypothesis" is not dead. The amyloid cascade hypothesis to which he refers is the theory that the deposition of the amyloid-beta peptide in the brain is a central event in Alzheimer's disease pathology. The analyst pointed out that he sees Biogen and Eisai's aducanumab study as the most potent approach for amyloid lowering, adding that he was skeptical whether solanezumab's effect was adequate. The amyloid hypothesis for Alzh eimer's may have taken another step back, but will not be fully put to the test until Biogen reports Phase 3 results, he contended. Additionally, Schimmer believes that today's selloff in Biogen's shares creates "some breathing room." He reiterated an Overweight rating and $335 price target on Biogen's shares. PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Eli Lilly have dropped 12% to $66.88, while Biogen's stock has slipped about 5% to $302.37 per share. :theflyonthewall.com
09:35 EDT
LLY
theflyonthewall.com:
Neurotrope President says 'deeply regrets' news on Eli Lilly's solanezumab
Neurotrope (NTRP) issued a statement on Eli Lilly's (LLY) experimental drug solanezumab. Lilly stated that, based upon results from its recent Phase 3 clinical trial, solanezumab failed to improve cognition of patients with mild Alzheimer's disease. Dr. Daniel Alkon, Neurotrope's President and Chief Scientific Officer stated' "I deeply regret the news released today that Lilly's latest trial of its leading Alzheimer's drug candidate has failed. Lilly's dedication and persistence to finding a cure for this devastating affliction deserves everyone's admiration and gratitude. Repeated attempts to treat or even slow the relentless progression of Alzheimer's disease by ta rgeting the red flag in patient's brains called amyloid plaques have continued to lead to such disappointing outcomes. Neurotrope has focused all of its resources on regenerative medicine that would replace the lost synaptic networks that are so consistently associated with the breakdown of human cognitive functions. Bryostatin, a drug that induces growth of new networks to replace those that have degenerated while also degrading plaques and tau tangles, may also address the red flags of this scourge threatening increasing numbers of the world's aging populations. At Neurotrope, we believe that treating Alzheimer's disease is a daunting challenge that will need to be treated by a drug with multi modal efficacy. We believe that our drug bryotstatin may be the drug. The top line results of our Phase 2 study with 148 patients is expected to be announced in April 2017. We hope, at that time, that a new therapy will be viewed as a possible future treatment for this disease." :theflyonthewall.com
09:31 EDT
LLY
theflyonthewall.com:
Biogen selloff may be an overreaction, says Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Brian Abrahams believes selloff in shares of Biogen (BIIB) following Eli Lilly's (LLY) Alzheimer's failure may be an overreaction. Signals of activity seen for Lilly's sola "do maintain some possibility" that Biogen's aducanumab could "ultimately make it over the line," Abrahams tells investors in a research note. He keeps a Hold rating on Biogen with a $310 price target, however, viewing the risk/reward as balanced. :theflyonthewall.com
09:29 EDT
LLY
theflyonthewall.com:
Eli Lilly falls sharply after solanezumab trial did not meet endpoint
The stock was last down over 15.6% to $63.99 to a new 52-week low. At that price $62.19 is next support. Resistance is at $65.54. :theflyonthewall.com
09:25 EDT
LLY
theflyonthewall.com:
Citi sees four reasons why Biogen Alzheimer's drug can still work
Citi analyst Robyn Karnauska sees four reasons why Biogen's (BIIB) Alzheimer's drug aducanumab can still work following the failure of Eli Lilly's (LLY) solanezumab. The analyst lists difference in mechanism of action, efficacy in an end-point-dependent manner, patient population and endpoints as why she thinks Biogen's drug can have a different outcome than Lilly's. The analyst has a Neutral rating on Biogen with a $305 price target. :theflyonthewall.
