InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[ziploc_1]

Notes on Nok-Idcc imbroglio

-Nok and Idcc have been negotiating for 4 months without an agreement. From what Merrill said at the CC I surmise that A deal to give Nok concessions on 2G in return for a 3G deal was on the table but Nok probably wanted to rape us on 3G too.
-Management foolishly painted itself into a corner on 3/17 when they announced how much Nok was going to pay.
-Management was foolish to hype the Ericy deal on 3/17 and then sell into the rally. IMO some top management has lost credibility and unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat they may have to go. Middle management just followed the crowd in the selling and they are not so deeply involved.
-The threatening by Nok to get management in trouble and then actually doing it is reckless on their part, esp since it is so plain for everyone to see. It is just barely possible that they could get into trouble with the law over this type of extortion.
-There is still a decent chance for a settlement in the next month or two, esp if Nok loses its bid for the documents, which I give a 50% chance of happening.
-If we lose this arbitration, there is little doubt that the company will have to be sold or the whole structure will come crashing down. In this scenario, 3G IPR will still be valuable but Idcc will have been weakened too much to pull it off.
-I suspect that we will be treated to good news at the 8/13 CC. Management will pull out all the stops to make that happen.