T/A ETF AND INDEX

[shortterm]

PokerSam,

Your big long/medium term guide is ewaves which I have repeatedly said that I do not believe because rationally it makes no sense to me. But we can just agree to disagree. I've seem enough people to do brilliantly for extended periods using ewaves and then they believe their own counts when markets are screaming that they are wrong and they keep at least publicly holding into their position and compounding their mistake. I do not pretend to know where markets go, but I see no technical or fundamental or seasonal justification for trying to reach much higher. In fact, technically the situation keeps getting worse.

I am sorry that I referred to
the ewaves as rubbish which you took a strong and dogmatic exception including sending me a private message that was less than reasonable. If you go back and read the message that you responded to, you will find that I didn't actually call the whole ewaves rubbish as I am not in a position to judge it. I called rubbish what the Ewaves internationl promotes: they try to promote the mechanism as not only something combines the market action and psycology of the participants into something that predicts how masses behave. They are making vague claims about using ewaves to forcast social actions i.e. political and social actions. I guess really what they pretend to sell is equivalent to psycohistory of Asimov's books. For non-scifi fans this is a good summary:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)

It's interesting fiction but it is fiction.

There is no question, you are a good trader, but as I have said before, please, have some levels which tell you that it is time to abandon the current count because I cannot see it happenning. Don't lose your shirt on dogma. As someone else said, the price is only thing that matter and breath indicators are good addition to it: you cannot go much further up if majority of stocks are actaually breaking down which they are.

Last year you were convinced that we'd fall apart but it didn't take place, we were going into seasonally strong period. Don't go chasing the phantom bounce to 39+ when the market is falling apart around you. Trade the price not what you think will happen.

Everyhing tells me as you agree we are at the edge of a cliff, but I unlike you, I do not expect us to be able to make much more head way. We disagree on the time scale. Not in substance. And we disagree n the method of reaching the conclusion at least in part.

In all of the mistakes that I have made, this time around what have allowed me to make tons of money is simple: being less greedy and more aware of money and risk management. I use futures for short term trading and option for longer. Futures allow efficient actions whether intraday or swings of a few days. Options allows me to make most of the spikes against my long term view. I'm trading anyting between October and January. September is a month that I view like trading futures: you have to be reasonably correct in you short term forcast.

I am not saying that we cannot reach your targets, but I just see diminishing probabilities. Be careful. How on earth are we going to climb up when everything is breaking down: just look at DOW and two stocks that are most often used to support it: CAT and MMM.

Or IBM. Does that look like it is going to launch higher? Today was nothing but sucking more fools into the downwards spiral. You do know that mutual fund cash balances are at all time lows which means that they will be forced sellers if people start redeeming their holdings? And we are approaching seasonally extremely weak period. In fact, seasonally we only have until Thursday to make any headway and then it is down.