Followers | 14 |
Posts | 909 |
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Alias Born | 09/29/2016 |
Thursday, September 29, 2016 4:34:34 PM
Overview
- Stock's down almost 50% YoY - hasn't been trading this low since Aug, 2014.
- Recent decline due to Management's weak Q3 earnings guidance on 7/28 - citing weakening demand in North America and Europe
- Following guidance, stock was downgraded by J.P. Morgan, Nomura, B. Riley & Co. and Raymond James.
INFN is at its bottom
- Weak growth is a timing issue (new product launch is late by 6 months) not a structural problem with the business.
- Q3 will be the low point for revenue. Q4 will be marginally better and the growth starts to pick up in Q1 '17
- Prior to headwinds, revenue had grown +20% the last 3 fiscal years and broke into +10% EBITDA margins this last year.
- Infinera is pushing their (proprietary) technology into new markets that are huge (metro aggregation), or young markets that are growing rapidly (60%+ GAGR) and are forecast to do so for several years (small form factor data centre interconnect).
- Significant insider buying in the open market validates upside.
Valuation
- INFN ltm and fwd EBITDA multiples are trading below its peer group: chart
- The stock current market valuation implies 0% growth (not even inflation)
- Using a highly conservative growth forecast (nowhere near historical levels) - the stock still should be trading closer to $11 based on a future cash flows. My DCF analysis: link
Due to reasons mentioned above, seems like a great entry point that could easily achieve 20-40% gains.
Love to hear what everyone thinks...
Recent INFN News
- Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/16/2024 08:05:57 PM
- Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/16/2024 10:12:57 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/16/2024 10:11:00 AM
- Core-Backbone Upgrades Key Network Routes in Germany with Infinera’s GX Series Solution • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 09/09/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/06/2024 09:03:03 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/06/2024 09:02:53 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/06/2024 09:02:42 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/06/2024 09:02:32 PM
- Form DEFM14A - Definitive proxy statement relating to merger or acquisition • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/21/2024 08:16:28 PM
- Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2024 10:35:25 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2024 10:30:30 AM
- Form SC 13G - Statement of Beneficial Ownership by Certain Investors • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:47:31 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/02/2024 08:09:25 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/02/2024 08:07:09 PM
- Infinera Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 08/02/2024 08:03:27 PM
- GARR Selects Infinera’s GX Series to Double Capacity of Italy’s Research & Education Network • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/29/2024 12:00:00 PM
- SECOM Deploys Infinera XTM Series for Middle-mile Network to Bring New Broadband Services to Underserved Rural Colorado • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/22/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 425 - Prospectuses and communications, business combinations • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/17/2024 08:18:27 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:14:57 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:14:45 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:14:33 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:14:22 PM
- Kuehn Law Encourages INFN, RPHM, VAPO, and PRFT Investors to Contact Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 07/01/2024 07:13:00 PM
- U.S. Stocks May Move Back To The Upside In Early Trading • IH Market News • 07/01/2024 02:04:43 PM
- Japan’s APRESIA Systems Expands Access Network Solutions Portfolio with Integration of Infinera ICE-X Coherent Pluggables • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/01/2024 12:00:00 PM
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