JP Energy Partners LP (JPEP)

[jugs]

Not long ago I sold my position in JPEP. A discussion with a good friend this morning led to my exploring my trading history involving this stock and I found that I sold off in lots of about a thousand units each---at prices ranging from $7.41 to $7.61. So I had a gain of a few hundred $ but the real gain hasn't been about money at all. Rather, it's been about shouldering far less risk and this translates into concern.

I continue to expect we'll soon be seeing a distribution cut. The cut itself shouldn't be the final determinant, though. It's the drop in valuation sure to follow---and any gains accumulated thus far are likely to be shot down in one fell swoop or one not so swell poop. Take your pick. A cut will drop the unit price to the $6 range and if severe enough, even below that.

Look into the filings and you'll quickly find there's simply not enough free cash flow to support even a zero-sum distribution. This means that the company stands to lose money even if totally eliminating the distribution. Income must be used to keep the lights on, salaries paid and they've got to continue on the acquisition trail or be swallowed up themselves.

Not looking good now and in the near-to-mid term future.