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Saturday, September 17, 2016 1:18:56 PM
Could be that: "All is well." Could also be that: "All is not so well."
Actuarial discipline is that you rely heavier on the "not so well" outcome as the basis for projected costs hen the cheey, rosy vision the optimists bring up. To wit, I had a great friend in college who was a rabid NY Yankees fan. He was notorious for projections like "Hey, the Yanks just scored 6 runs in the top of first inning. At their present pace, they will win this game 54 to nothing!"
JMHO.
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