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Thursday, September 01, 2016 9:41:53 PM
I used to think the first IA occurred around mid June 2015 or slightly thereafter, but then we had Dr. Liau's statement, which made me opine it came sometime after October 15, 2015. Koman now (he did not before) thinks it did occur around mid June 2015 (so we switched opinions).
Anyway, the silence leaves bears and longs with a huge window to contemplate.
Basically the window for the first interim is anywhere between June 2015 and now....if you look at different public statements by various professionals. Of course in reality, the 149th event happens on one day, so the window is too broad for logic to tell us when it occurred.
That is why I now use 248 events as my litmus test. I don't think the public would remain uninformed about that milestone for more than 2 or 3 months, and as such, as Doc points out, and for reasons many of us went into a while back, we are entering a period when even the 248th (possibly sometime post August 1, 2016) event occurring is arguably a positive. Could we be nearer to 149 events rather than 248, sure, but without more information, the conservative approach makes more sense to me.
I know you know most of this, I'm just talking this out.
Respect Risk. Conduct Your Own Due Diligence. Manage your assets wisely. Diversify.
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