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Wednesday, August 31, 2016 3:40:49 PM
ES1, I'm curious if there are official contracts between Bolt Threads and Patagonia or between Spiber and North Face. On the Spiber website, their PR states the relationship is a 'Partnership' rather than a contract.
One reason why I believe companies may wait until production is underway to award a contract is simply to avoid looking bad if things fall through. KBLB has no proven history of being able to commercially produce. Although I agree that large-scale production is likely, it could be the case that the eggs sent over to Vietnam succumb to the Bombyx mori nucleopolyhedrovirus and the factory can't produce at all. (This is unlikely, but possible.) Other complications could arise as well.
Companies have to balance out the enthusiasm that new announcements bring against expectations. As far as I can tell, North Face still is not selling the Moon Parka. The press releases made about this are going cold. But even still, I'm not sure there was a contract between the companies.
Truth would caution that the facts are not yet in and would be right. I'm basing my conjecture on a belief that 1) Scaling up production of DS will take at least a year, even if Vietnamese silkworm farms are ready to jump onboard; 2) Companies want their announcements to create a buzz, but not so early that the buzz wears off before the products hit the market; and 3) Contracts (rather than partnerships) typically require product to be delivered before payments are made, especially in new technologies with a history of slow commercialization.
That leads me to believe we will experience continuing dilution before things get better. Of course, I could be all wrong. Won't be the first time, nor the last...
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