JL,
I know we don’t agree on some of these points but since you asked and I respect your posts, here is my take what will happen if R-IT is halted in the next few month:
1) AMRN will do another secondary prior to FDA approval and try to raise as much as possible (clearly at much higher prices). They are not taking anything for granted with the FDA and will not repeat the same mistake they made prior to Anchor approval. I believe the secondary will go over very well and stock won’t look back. M&A speculations will be very high.
2) Once FDA approves the expanded indication, the company will be acquired within a month. I would assign a 99.9% probability to this. I know you disagree with this but I have my reasons.
3) Partnering has been just a side show. Kowa relationship is totally irrelevant. It just filled a hole after AMRN had to reduce their own sales force due to Anchor CRL. The terms on this relationship told you that it is just a “place holder” until R-IT decision (like are all other partnerships AMRN has entered into).
4) I also don’t believe you will see a European tier 1 partnership. All their partnerships are with tier 2/3 guys and have very convenient takeout clauses in AMRN’s favor. No tier 1 guys will accept these. If you do see a tier 1 partner, you know who will be the buyer after FDA approval but I doubt this will happen. If we get a tier 2/3 partner in Europe, pay attention to the takeout clause...it will be laughable.
5) Recent new hires provide zero indication re “go-it-alone” or “quick buyout”. New management will make out like bandits if they get acquired. They will make more in 1 year vs what they would have made in 20 years at their previous jobs. If anything, new hires provide a lot more of an indication regarding the success of R-IT and the value of EPA since I am sure they all had serious due diligence before joining a one drug company.
Thank you for sharing your opinions on the science, especially when it pertains to inflammation. You helped me understand my own health issues and why V has made such a big difference to me. Lipids were never the issue for me.
