NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Pyrrhonian]

Alright hold on, let's really think a second.

The pps is very low here, relative to where it was. But warrants continuously get repriced, making a bit of a ceiling to the pps. And the float swells. And they dropped 20% and are *still* out of cash.

What good news could come? They are shifting focus to combo trials with Direct. And maybe combos with DCVax L, though they haven't specified. Actually, they haven't gone into much detail at all on these forthcoming studies. But one thing's for sure, they will be expensive. Especially if CI are involved (see how these costs can gather here: http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/845707 ).

The P3 is done guys. They aren't talking about unblinding data at 248 events or anything. They are saying nothing at all about it. When this company goes quiet about something it's simply not good. Could have gotten a futility rec from DMC, and this could have led to a discussion with regulators, who due to the invasive procedure of the treatment deemed it in the public's best interest to place a hold on the study (of course, letting those who already had vacc made keep getting it, but preventing future patients from going through leuk procedure). That's probably enough to do it right there. Or, being aware of Optune making a granting of DCVax L accelerated approval based on PFS very unlikely, and also due to invasive leuk procedure (FDA's words), determined the study was no longer A&WC, and insisted on enlarging the trial by hundreds of patients and making OS co-primary (just primary for new arm), and losing cross-over for new arm. Whatever it is, it's just done.

These are the things we know:

-even with the P3 on hold for a year, with no new screening or any new vaccines being made, they are burning $5mm a month, with a lot of that going to Cognate.
-they are shifting the focus to these P2 studies. They have already warned there will be substantial dilution to get them going.
-they are out of cash, and the last raise, which was puny, dropped the pps 20%.
-it's questionable how much they can raise at all at this point.
-they need $60mm to go a year at current burn without doing any P2 trials. The burn will of course increase with P2 studies.

And so I am actually planning on going long here again, but only once they a) have enough cash to last several months at least, b) have these P2 studies underway, and I can confirm that via third party sources, and c) are likely to PR data from one or more of these studies imminently.

Then I'll hop in there. And LP et al will pump up whatever "data" there is and I'll make a profit (probably).

I see the above as the only sane plan. Staying long here, or especially buying more, before a real wash out occurs, will make it very likely *you* will be the one washed out. AEZS style...

Jmo

Okay GL