Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

BB ain't that what you were talking about??
Bull Case $16 // 405% Upside // DCF Derived (SunTrust)

• Vascepa sales accelerate to more than double ($1.5B) our base case 2021 estimate of $645M, assuming broad access (1 in 3 adults) from approval in the MARINE (4M), ANCHOR (37M) and REDUCEIT (34M) patient populations representing a ~75MM-patient market in the US.

• The 5-year partnership with Kowa adds to its share of voice with primary care/cardiovascular prescriber base allowing it to exceed sales expectations.

• REDUCE-IT pre-specified interim analysis by the independent data monitoring committee at 60% of the targeted events is anticipated in 2016, with 100% of the targeted events anticipated by YE2017. Following results in 2018, REDUCE-IT is added fully to Vascepa's label.

• AMRN arranges a royalty on partnered international Vascepa sales.

• AMRN retains exclusivity on Vascepa beyond 2024 (assuming 3 years add back due to FDA delays under Hatch-Waxman).