Wednesday, August 10, 2016 8:21:19 PM
risk/reward is very favorable ahead of 1st interim and now with a 2nd interim look mid 2017, it is even more attractive, especially if you believe in EPA benefit
well, if you are an institution, you are getting the stock at 10-15% discount tonight and you have 2 shots on goal over the next 9 month before the final binary event. You assume that if 1st interim is not halted, you would probably find yourself in the same price range as you are today prior to 2nd interim. So your downside is limited for the next 9 month (i am not talking about day to day trading but over the course of 9 month). However, IF 1st interim is halted, you open in double digits. This is a very attractive risk/reward over the next 9 month.
btw, this raise has NOT changed the odds of 1st interim being halted or not whatsoever. The company simply needed to do one more raise to be able to get to the finish line. If you are familiar with their balance sheet, you are not surprised. No company waits and hopes. Your priority is to make sure you have enough cash to get you thru the worse case scenario (final R-IT), no matter how confident you are about the data. On that note, if 1st and 2nd is not halted, I would not be surprised to see another raise prior to final data. Basic survival 101.
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