IR called me today.
Some of you may have read my post regarding an email that I sent to IR last week expressing my concerns about how the company communicates with its shareholders.
I received a call from IR (do not want to disclose the caller's name because I did not ask him specifically if I could). This was ~20 minute conversation with someone who seems to be well versed on the business of Anavex and the biotech industry in general. I asked him how comfortable he was with me sharing--obviously if he shared with me he should be comfortable sharing with others, but I just wanted to be sure-- within the forums that I exchange information with fellow investors. He was OK with it as long as he would not be miss-quoted or misconstrued, which I respect and understand. With that disclaimer and while paraphrasing, here are some of the key points from our discussion:
31 week data: Keep in mind that the results are from pooled data so it is difficult to ascertain anything conclusive. However, the main objective of this phase, to establish tolerance and safety dosage, was achieved and this encourages the company to move forward with the next steps in the process. Management is pleased about early efficacy signs but cautious about getting too exuberant; again, pooled data, relative and relatively small sample, nothing discouraging. Next step is to analyse the data at the individual level and continue to report.
Ph-3 AD trial:
• Likely to start in 2017.
• Reluctant to provide a more conclusive timeline as this is in the early planning phase.
• Will need to raise money or conclude partnership to execute.
• No immediate plan to raise cash.
• There have been discussions with potential partners. Unable to elaborate further.
My conclusions: nothing new here but confirmation that partnership seems to be the preferred avenue for funding while not discarding alternatives. Do not expect a trial to start in 2016. My prognostic is that Q2 is likely. The results disclosed last week should not be of concern for pursuing partnership. Actually, the company is encouraged by the results.
Parkinson’s -MJF study: Executing. Expect news on this in the not too distant future (weeks). I found this encouraging.
Orphan Designation indications: Rett is priority. Will proceed with Ph-2 study being that it will be of short duration (months) and relatively inexpensive, people and money, to execute. Expect news soon.
My take away: encouraging as this will give us a good indication as to where we stand in regards to not being a “one trick pony”. Revenue may start coming in sooner than expected.
SEC investigation and class action LS: nothing new to report. The company is not concerned in either situation. From his extensive experience with this type of situations, they happen a lot and most tend to quietly go away. He did mentioned that the company remains cautious about what/how to disclose information in light of the lack of conclusive resolution.
Comment was made referencing AF and other engaged in distorting the facts. These people get away with murder with no repercussions; regrettable and frustrating but just the reality we live. Agreed that the company can do a better job of, and I sensed that there is serious internal discussion as to the best way to do so, setting the record straight. He mentioned the PR last Friday. I commented that while positive, more of and with more emphasis on refuting the "lies" is needed. He agreed. He also commented that because of the complexity in analysing the results, it is easy to distort the interpretation, as it has been done.
He emphasized that the company acknowledges that it needs to do a more effective job of communicating to the public and will endeavour to do so going forward.
In summary: I was pleased to receive the call. I found the caller to be willing to tell as much as he could without getting in trouble.
How do I react? I believe the science is still viable, management continues to learn about dealing with the market place, limited resources (people/money) are a big hurdle that needs to be overcomed soon, I expect more/better communication going forward. In conclusion: I remain committed to my investment an will proceed cautiously but still optimistic that this will payoff for investors and those in need of relief from neurological disorders.
Cheers and good luck!
